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Water users in Montpelier were asked to be mindful of their taps and curb water use as drought lowered the level of Berlin Pond, the town primary source of drinking water. VTDigger (Montpelier, Vt.), Sep 18, 2025

Severe drought in Vermont has diminished hydropower production to the lowest level in years, but power was still being generated. Electricity bills could be affected for those who rely heavily on hydropower. WPTZ MyNBC5 (Burlington, Vt.), Sep 18, 2025

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 000 WTNT42 KNHC 191455 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 Gabrielle's low-level center remains mostly exposed, now between a large area of deep convection in the eastern semicircle and growing cells in the southwestern quadrant. There has been little change in the satellite estimates and since scatterometer missed the radius-of-maximum winds this morning, the initial intensity will remain 45 kt. The storm is moving northwestward or 305 degrees at 10 kt, with the subtropical ridge located to its north. A general pattern of troughing is expected to persist near the southeastern U.S. coast and far western Atlantic for the next several days, which is expected cause Gabrielle to recurve around the western periphery of the ridge over the next 4 days. While the track guidance remains relatively tight during this period, the along-track spread (speed differences) are quite large in the medium range. The HCCA and Google DeepMind (GDM) ensemble mean have bifurcated on the latest cycle with the corrected consensus to the north and the GDM to the south. Our forecast has adjusted slightly north, but remains on the southern side of the overall consensus. The reliable track models continue to show Gabrielle's center passing at least 140 n mi east of Bermuda in about 3 days. However, interests on the island should continue to monitor Gabrielle's progress since NHC's average track error at 3 days is about 90 n mi, and hazards can extend well away from the center. There remains a 20-25 percent chance of tropical-storm-force winds occurring on Bermuda. The moderate westerly shear currently affecting Gabrielle is forecast to gradually lessen below 10 kt by 24-36 hours. This should begin to mitigate the effects of surrounding dry air and allow for gradual strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has once again been raised to trend toward the latest IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. By day 5, the onset of significantly stronger shear and cooler waters should induce some weakening. There is significant uncertainty about when Gabrielle might become extratropical, as the forward speed of the system may contribute significantly to a higher peak intensity (longer time over warmer waters). KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda should monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind and rainfall impacts. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 21.9N 55.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 22.9N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 24.3N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 26.0N 59.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 27.8N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 22/0000Z 29.8N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 32.0N 60.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 37.5N 54.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 41.3N 40.2W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Churchill/Blake

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025 677 FONT12 KNHC 191424 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 2(23) X(23) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER CHURCHILL/BLAKE

Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 761 WTNT32 KNHC 191423 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 19 2025 ...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.9N 55.6W ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Gabrielle. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 55.6 West. Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday. A gradual turn towards the north-northwestward is expected by Saturday night, followed by a northward motion by Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Gabrielle is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Gabrielle can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. SURF: Swells generated by Gabrielle are expected to reach Bermuda tonight and build through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Churchill/Blake

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 19 the center of Gabrielle was located near 21.9, -55.6 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Although fall burning regulations do not take effect until October 1, Ohioans were urged to be very cautious due to the unusually dry conditions statewide and adhere to the state’s outdoor burning regulations, warned the Ohio Department of Natural Resources Division of Forestry and the Ohio State Fire Marshal. Ohio Department of Natural Resources (Columbus), Sep 18, 2025

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025 859 WTNT22 KNHC 191412 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1500 UTC FRI SEP 19 2025 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 55.6W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......130NE 100SE 0SW 70NW. 4 M SEAS....315NE 180SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 55.6W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 55.1W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 22.9N 56.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.3N 58.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 90SE 0SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 26.0N 59.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 20SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 27.8N 60.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT...150NE 110SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 29.8N 61.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 32.0N 60.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 37.5N 54.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT...170NE 190SE 140SW 100NW. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 41.3N 40.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 60NW. 34 KT...230NE 250SE 220SW 150NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 55.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CHURCHILL/BLAKE

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough/low will move eastward today from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough and speed maximum over eastern WY/western SD this morning will rotate southeastward across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Weak upper ridging will be maintained over portions of the Southwest/Four Corners into the northern Great Basin, with multiple low-amplitude perturbations forecast to spread east-northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a weak low over the eastern Dakotas should gradually fill through the day, while a front stalls along/near the KS/NE border to the east of modest lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. ...Central Plains... It appears that increasing large-scale ascent associated with the embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly jet may be sufficient to encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest NE into western KS. This region should have a modestly moist low-level airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective updraft organization. There is still considerable uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening across the central Plains. Any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central KS through the evening. ...Upper Midwest... Modest west-southwesterly mid-level winds will be present today over parts of the Upper Midwest on the eastern side of the upper-level trough/low. Lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain rather poor, which should limit the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon. While scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop later today, the overall thermodynamic/kinematic environment appears too marginal to include low severe probabilities. ...Southwest... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of central/eastern AZ into western NM and far west TX. This activity is related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable EML, and limited forecast instability/low-level lapse rates. Have therefore not included any severe wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough/low will move eastward today from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough and speed maximum over eastern WY/western SD this morning will rotate southeastward across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Weak upper ridging will be maintained over portions of the Southwest/Four Corners into the northern Great Basin, with multiple low-amplitude perturbations forecast to spread east-northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a weak low over the eastern Dakotas should gradually fill through the day, while a front stalls along/near the KS/NE border to the east of modest lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. ...Central Plains... It appears that increasing large-scale ascent associated with the embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly jet may be sufficient to encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest NE into western KS. This region should have a modestly moist low-level airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective updraft organization. There is still considerable uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening across the central Plains. Any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central KS through the evening. ...Upper Midwest... Modest west-southwesterly mid-level winds will be present today over parts of the Upper Midwest on the eastern side of the upper-level trough/low. Lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain rather poor, which should limit the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon. While scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop later today, the overall thermodynamic/kinematic environment appears too marginal to include low severe probabilities. ...Southwest... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of central/eastern AZ into western NM and far west TX. This activity is related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable EML, and limited forecast instability/low-level lapse rates. Have therefore not included any severe wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough/low will move eastward today from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough and speed maximum over eastern WY/western SD this morning will rotate southeastward across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Weak upper ridging will be maintained over portions of the Southwest/Four Corners into the northern Great Basin, with multiple low-amplitude perturbations forecast to spread east-northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a weak low over the eastern Dakotas should gradually fill through the day, while a front stalls along/near the KS/NE border to the east of modest lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. ...Central Plains... It appears that increasing large-scale ascent associated with the embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly jet may be sufficient to encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest NE into western KS. This region should have a modestly moist low-level airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective updraft organization. There is still considerable uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening across the central Plains. Any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central KS through the evening. ...Upper Midwest... Modest west-southwesterly mid-level winds will be present today over parts of the Upper Midwest on the eastern side of the upper-level trough/low. Lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain rather poor, which should limit the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon. While scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop later today, the overall thermodynamic/kinematic environment appears too marginal to include low severe probabilities. ...Southwest... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of central/eastern AZ into western NM and far west TX. This activity is related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable EML, and limited forecast instability/low-level lapse rates. Have therefore not included any severe wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Synopsis... A weak upper trough/low will move eastward today from the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. An embedded mid-level shortwave trough and speed maximum over eastern WY/western SD this morning will rotate southeastward across parts of the central Plains this afternoon and evening. Weak upper ridging will be maintained over portions of the Southwest/Four Corners into the northern Great Basin, with multiple low-amplitude perturbations forecast to spread east-northeastward across these regions. At the surface, a weak low over the eastern Dakotas should gradually fill through the day, while a front stalls along/near the KS/NE border to the east of modest lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. ...Central Plains... It appears that increasing large-scale ascent associated with the embedded shortwave trough and modestly enhanced west-northwesterly jet may be sufficient to encourage isolated thunderstorms to develop by late afternoon/early evening across parts of southwest NE into western KS. This region should have a modestly moist low-level airmass in place, with enough daytime heating forecast to support around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Even though mid-level lapse rates are not expected to become overly steep, strong deep-layer shear should aid in convective updraft organization. There is still considerable uncertainty with overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening across the central Plains. Any thunderstorms that can form and be sustained could produce isolated severe hail and/or gusts as they spread southeastward across western/central KS through the evening. ...Upper Midwest... Modest west-southwesterly mid-level winds will be present today over parts of the Upper Midwest on the eastern side of the upper-level trough/low. Lapse rates aloft are forecast to remain rather poor, which should limit the development of any more than weak instability this afternoon. While scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop later today, the overall thermodynamic/kinematic environment appears too marginal to include low severe probabilities. ...Southwest... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across parts of central/eastern AZ into western NM and far west TX. This activity is related to weak ascent aloft associated with minor perturbations rotating through/around a weak upper ridge over the Southwest. Some guidance shows potential for additional robust thunderstorm development by late afternoon/early evening, likely aided by orographic lift and other weak mid-level disturbances. Substantial uncertainty exists regarding the intensity of these thunderstorms later today owing to ongoing clouds/precipitation, lack of a notable EML, and limited forecast instability/low-level lapse rates. Have therefore not included any severe wind probabilities at this time. ..Gleason/Grams.. 09/19/2025 Read more

253
ABNT20 KNHC 191140
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located in the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just off the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible through the middle to
latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

208
ABPZ20 KNHC 191131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Overnight satellite-derived surface wind data indicated that the
system located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula does not have a well-defined
surface circulation. Shower and thunderstorm activity is producing
winds below gale force and remains displaced to the west of a broad
area of low pressure. This system, however, could still become a
short-lived tropical depression before it encounters progressively
cooler sea surface temperatures and a drier, stable airmass over
the weekend, which will inhibit any further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form by early to mid-next week while it
moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel
to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2025 08:49:09 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 19 Sep 2025 09:21:54 GMT

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A complex, split-flow, low-predictability upper pattern will exist early next week and eventually evolve into a closed upper low across the Midwest by the end of the week. The operational ECMWF and GFS have significantly different evolution of the upper pattern. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean look very similar through much of the extended forecast. Therefore, the operational GFS will be treated as an outlier for this outlook cycle with an implied preference for the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS. ...Day 4/Monday - TX/OK Panhandles into western Kansas and western Oklahoma... ECMWF forecast soundings on Monday show a favorable environment featuring moderate to strong instability and moderate to strong shear as a 40+ knot mid-level jet ejects across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma. The primary trough will remain across the central Rockies with only weak height falls across the Plains. However, a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this trough may support thunderstorm potential within this favorable zone. Relatively weak synoptic support and lower predictability within the split-flow regime precludes 15% probabilities at this time, but probabilities may need to be included later, particularly if confidence in the location and coverage of storms across portions of OK/KS and the TX Panhandle increases. ...Day 5 and Beyond... If a closed upper-low develops (as forecast by the GEFS and EPS mean), some marginal severe weather concern will likely accompany the low as it drifts east. No specific periods of greater severe weather threat are apparent at this time, and given the slow forward speed of the closed low, any severe weather threat will likely remain marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A complex, split-flow, low-predictability upper pattern will exist early next week and eventually evolve into a closed upper low across the Midwest by the end of the week. The operational ECMWF and GFS have significantly different evolution of the upper pattern. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean look very similar through much of the extended forecast. Therefore, the operational GFS will be treated as an outlier for this outlook cycle with an implied preference for the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS. ...Day 4/Monday - TX/OK Panhandles into western Kansas and western Oklahoma... ECMWF forecast soundings on Monday show a favorable environment featuring moderate to strong instability and moderate to strong shear as a 40+ knot mid-level jet ejects across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma. The primary trough will remain across the central Rockies with only weak height falls across the Plains. However, a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this trough may support thunderstorm potential within this favorable zone. Relatively weak synoptic support and lower predictability within the split-flow regime precludes 15% probabilities at this time, but probabilities may need to be included later, particularly if confidence in the location and coverage of storms across portions of OK/KS and the TX Panhandle increases. ...Day 5 and Beyond... If a closed upper-low develops (as forecast by the GEFS and EPS mean), some marginal severe weather concern will likely accompany the low as it drifts east. No specific periods of greater severe weather threat are apparent at this time, and given the slow forward speed of the closed low, any severe weather threat will likely remain marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A complex, split-flow, low-predictability upper pattern will exist early next week and eventually evolve into a closed upper low across the Midwest by the end of the week. The operational ECMWF and GFS have significantly different evolution of the upper pattern. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean look very similar through much of the extended forecast. Therefore, the operational GFS will be treated as an outlier for this outlook cycle with an implied preference for the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS. ...Day 4/Monday - TX/OK Panhandles into western Kansas and western Oklahoma... ECMWF forecast soundings on Monday show a favorable environment featuring moderate to strong instability and moderate to strong shear as a 40+ knot mid-level jet ejects across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma. The primary trough will remain across the central Rockies with only weak height falls across the Plains. However, a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this trough may support thunderstorm potential within this favorable zone. Relatively weak synoptic support and lower predictability within the split-flow regime precludes 15% probabilities at this time, but probabilities may need to be included later, particularly if confidence in the location and coverage of storms across portions of OK/KS and the TX Panhandle increases. ...Day 5 and Beyond... If a closed upper-low develops (as forecast by the GEFS and EPS mean), some marginal severe weather concern will likely accompany the low as it drifts east. No specific periods of greater severe weather threat are apparent at this time, and given the slow forward speed of the closed low, any severe weather threat will likely remain marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A complex, split-flow, low-predictability upper pattern will exist early next week and eventually evolve into a closed upper low across the Midwest by the end of the week. The operational ECMWF and GFS have significantly different evolution of the upper pattern. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean look very similar through much of the extended forecast. Therefore, the operational GFS will be treated as an outlier for this outlook cycle with an implied preference for the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS. ...Day 4/Monday - TX/OK Panhandles into western Kansas and western Oklahoma... ECMWF forecast soundings on Monday show a favorable environment featuring moderate to strong instability and moderate to strong shear as a 40+ knot mid-level jet ejects across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma. The primary trough will remain across the central Rockies with only weak height falls across the Plains. However, a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this trough may support thunderstorm potential within this favorable zone. Relatively weak synoptic support and lower predictability within the split-flow regime precludes 15% probabilities at this time, but probabilities may need to be included later, particularly if confidence in the location and coverage of storms across portions of OK/KS and the TX Panhandle increases. ...Day 5 and Beyond... If a closed upper-low develops (as forecast by the GEFS and EPS mean), some marginal severe weather concern will likely accompany the low as it drifts east. No specific periods of greater severe weather threat are apparent at this time, and given the slow forward speed of the closed low, any severe weather threat will likely remain marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A complex, split-flow, low-predictability upper pattern will exist early next week and eventually evolve into a closed upper low across the Midwest by the end of the week. The operational ECMWF and GFS have significantly different evolution of the upper pattern. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble mean look very similar through much of the extended forecast. Therefore, the operational GFS will be treated as an outlier for this outlook cycle with an implied preference for the ECMWF/EPS/GEFS. ...Day 4/Monday - TX/OK Panhandles into western Kansas and western Oklahoma... ECMWF forecast soundings on Monday show a favorable environment featuring moderate to strong instability and moderate to strong shear as a 40+ knot mid-level jet ejects across the TX Panhandle and into Oklahoma. The primary trough will remain across the central Rockies with only weak height falls across the Plains. However, a strengthening low-level jet ahead of this trough may support thunderstorm potential within this favorable zone. Relatively weak synoptic support and lower predictability within the split-flow regime precludes 15% probabilities at this time, but probabilities may need to be included later, particularly if confidence in the location and coverage of storms across portions of OK/KS and the TX Panhandle increases. ...Day 5 and Beyond... If a closed upper-low develops (as forecast by the GEFS and EPS mean), some marginal severe weather concern will likely accompany the low as it drifts east. No specific periods of greater severe weather threat are apparent at this time, and given the slow forward speed of the closed low, any severe weather threat will likely remain marginal. Read more