Aggregator

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes to the central Plains on Sunday. Severe weather potential remains uncertain. ...Synopsis... The overall mid-level pattern will feature a trough across the central CONUS with a ridge to the west and east. This pattern will become more zonal through the period with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs extending from the East Coast to the Pacific Northwest. While the overall pattern remains consistent between guidance, the low-amplitude and progressive nature of the pattern will lead to considerable uncertainty about the timing and amplitude of the mid-level shortwave troughs. ...Ohio Valley... Within the overall mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest, a secondary positively tilted trough is forecast to move from southern Canada and into the Upper Midwest and eventually take on a more neutral tilt. The strength of this trough will have significant implications on the overall threat across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A stronger solution, such as the ECMWF, would result in a more pronounced surface low and a trough/cold front across the Ohio Valley. In this scenario, instability and shear would support some severe weather potential Sunday afternoon/evening. Some guidance, such as the GFS, has a less amplified mid-level shortwave trough and minimal surface reflection. This GFS solution is much less favorable for severe weather potential across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks. ...Central Plains... A moist airmass is expected across the Plains on Sunday with moderate instability expected by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing will be relatively weak, but an uncapped airmass with weak height falls will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be quite weak (15 to 20 knots) and therefore, organized severe weather potential should remain mostly low. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes to the central Plains on Sunday. Severe weather potential remains uncertain. ...Synopsis... The overall mid-level pattern will feature a trough across the central CONUS with a ridge to the west and east. This pattern will become more zonal through the period with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs extending from the East Coast to the Pacific Northwest. While the overall pattern remains consistent between guidance, the low-amplitude and progressive nature of the pattern will lead to considerable uncertainty about the timing and amplitude of the mid-level shortwave troughs. ...Ohio Valley... Within the overall mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest, a secondary positively tilted trough is forecast to move from southern Canada and into the Upper Midwest and eventually take on a more neutral tilt. The strength of this trough will have significant implications on the overall threat across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A stronger solution, such as the ECMWF, would result in a more pronounced surface low and a trough/cold front across the Ohio Valley. In this scenario, instability and shear would support some severe weather potential Sunday afternoon/evening. Some guidance, such as the GFS, has a less amplified mid-level shortwave trough and minimal surface reflection. This GFS solution is much less favorable for severe weather potential across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks. ...Central Plains... A moist airmass is expected across the Plains on Sunday with moderate instability expected by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing will be relatively weak, but an uncapped airmass with weak height falls will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be quite weak (15 to 20 knots) and therefore, organized severe weather potential should remain mostly low. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected from the Great Lakes to the central Plains on Sunday. Severe weather potential remains uncertain. ...Synopsis... The overall mid-level pattern will feature a trough across the central CONUS with a ridge to the west and east. This pattern will become more zonal through the period with multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs extending from the East Coast to the Pacific Northwest. While the overall pattern remains consistent between guidance, the low-amplitude and progressive nature of the pattern will lead to considerable uncertainty about the timing and amplitude of the mid-level shortwave troughs. ...Ohio Valley... Within the overall mid-level trough across the Upper Midwest, a secondary positively tilted trough is forecast to move from southern Canada and into the Upper Midwest and eventually take on a more neutral tilt. The strength of this trough will have significant implications on the overall threat across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. A stronger solution, such as the ECMWF, would result in a more pronounced surface low and a trough/cold front across the Ohio Valley. In this scenario, instability and shear would support some severe weather potential Sunday afternoon/evening. Some guidance, such as the GFS, has a less amplified mid-level shortwave trough and minimal surface reflection. This GFS solution is much less favorable for severe weather potential across the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Due to these uncertainties, no probabilities have been added at this time, but may be needed in later outlooks. ...Central Plains... A moist airmass is expected across the Plains on Sunday with moderate instability expected by Sunday afternoon. Overall forcing will be relatively weak, but an uncapped airmass with weak height falls will likely support scattered thunderstorm activity during the afternoon. Mid-level flow will be quite weak (15 to 20 knots) and therefore, organized severe weather potential should remain mostly low. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of the northern Cascades as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, generally weak surface winds across the U.S. and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected will diminish any widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Cascades... Ridging and an intensifying height gradient aloft from an approaching mid-level trough will result in some downslope westerly surface winds through the Cascade gaps. These winds are expected to reach 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%. With ERCs hovering around the 80th annual percentile, and some additional curing of fuels expected on Friday, at least Elevated fire-weather highlights are warranted at this time. ...Southern Cascades... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists Saturday evening across portions of the Oregon Cascades. However, precipitable water content at or exceeding 1 inch, slow storm motions, low buoyancy, and meager fuels will limit the overall threat of lightning-based ignitions. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of the northern Cascades as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, generally weak surface winds across the U.S. and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected will diminish any widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Cascades... Ridging and an intensifying height gradient aloft from an approaching mid-level trough will result in some downslope westerly surface winds through the Cascade gaps. These winds are expected to reach 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%. With ERCs hovering around the 80th annual percentile, and some additional curing of fuels expected on Friday, at least Elevated fire-weather highlights are warranted at this time. ...Southern Cascades... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists Saturday evening across portions of the Oregon Cascades. However, precipitable water content at or exceeding 1 inch, slow storm motions, low buoyancy, and meager fuels will limit the overall threat of lightning-based ignitions. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of the northern Cascades as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, generally weak surface winds across the U.S. and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected will diminish any widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Cascades... Ridging and an intensifying height gradient aloft from an approaching mid-level trough will result in some downslope westerly surface winds through the Cascade gaps. These winds are expected to reach 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%. With ERCs hovering around the 80th annual percentile, and some additional curing of fuels expected on Friday, at least Elevated fire-weather highlights are warranted at this time. ...Southern Cascades... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists Saturday evening across portions of the Oregon Cascades. However, precipitable water content at or exceeding 1 inch, slow storm motions, low buoyancy, and meager fuels will limit the overall threat of lightning-based ignitions. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of the northern Cascades as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, generally weak surface winds across the U.S. and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected will diminish any widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Cascades... Ridging and an intensifying height gradient aloft from an approaching mid-level trough will result in some downslope westerly surface winds through the Cascade gaps. These winds are expected to reach 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%. With ERCs hovering around the 80th annual percentile, and some additional curing of fuels expected on Friday, at least Elevated fire-weather highlights are warranted at this time. ...Southern Cascades... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists Saturday evening across portions of the Oregon Cascades. However, precipitable water content at or exceeding 1 inch, slow storm motions, low buoyancy, and meager fuels will limit the overall threat of lightning-based ignitions. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire-weather conditions are forecast across portions of the northern Cascades as a mid-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Otherwise, generally weak surface winds across the U.S. and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected will diminish any widespread fire-weather concerns. ...Northern Cascades... Ridging and an intensifying height gradient aloft from an approaching mid-level trough will result in some downslope westerly surface winds through the Cascade gaps. These winds are expected to reach 15-20 MPH, with relative humidity values as low as 10-15%. With ERCs hovering around the 80th annual percentile, and some additional curing of fuels expected on Friday, at least Elevated fire-weather highlights are warranted at this time. ...Southern Cascades... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists Saturday evening across portions of the Oregon Cascades. However, precipitable water content at or exceeding 1 inch, slow storm motions, low buoyancy, and meager fuels will limit the overall threat of lightning-based ignitions. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Given generally weak surface winds and higher precipitable water content where convection is expected, no fire-weather highlights are forecast at this time. However, portions of the Pacific Northwest and New England may have some lower-end fire-weather potential. ...Northern California into Southern Oregon... Some potential for thunderstorm activity exists across portions of northern California into southern Oregon late this afternoon into the evening. Precipitable water near and exceeding 1 inch, combined with weak upper flow/slow storm motion vectors, will limit the threat of lightning ignitions due to wet downdraft cores with any storms that develop. Additionally, this precipitation will further temper already meager fuels in the area. There is a small possibility for lightning-based ignitions on the periphery of downdraft cores co-located with areas of drier fuels, but no widespread fire concerns are expected. ...New England... Offshore flow associated with a progressive mid-level trough and cold front will persist much of today across New England. While seasonal and annual ERC values exceed the 80th-90th percentiles, winds are forecast to stay around 10 MPH (gusting to 15 MPH) and relative humidity around 40%. Though this does not generally meet the criteria for Elevated fire-weather highlights, some potential for wildfire ignition and spread exists, largely owing to receptive fuels. ..Halbert.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

878
ABPZ20 KNHC 190553
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms remain displaced to the west of a broad
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although a
tropical depression is still likely to form during the next day or
so, the system is forecast to encounter progressively cooler waters
and a drier, stable airmass over the weekend, which will inhibit any
further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form during the early or middle portions
of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5 to 10
mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will amplify across the northern Plains/Upper Midwest on Saturday with ridging across the eastern CONUS and the Rockies. A weak surface low will accompany this trough across the Upper Midwest with a cold front extending southwestward into southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. South of this front, a moist airmass will be present with moderate instability anticipated. A MCS will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period across Kansas on the nose of the low-level jet. As this cluster of storms moves east through the day, additional storms are possible in its wake (across Oklahoma, southern Kansas and the TX/OK Panhandles) where moderate instability and weak isentropic ascent remains. These storms may pose a threat for isolated hail or wind gusts. However, while this area poses the greatest threat, the overall threat for organized storms remains low given weak (less than 20 knots) mid-level flow and a lack of more focused ascent. ..Bentley.. 09/19/2025 Read more