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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... Low potential for thunderstorms exists ahead of the mid-level moisture surge over portions of northern CA and southern OR Friday into Friday night. Should storms form, a primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, a low-end chance for lightning ignitions exists if storms develop over areas of drier fuels. Widespread concerns are not expected. ...New England... Breezy conditions (gusts 10-15 mph) are possible over parts of New England behind a departing cold front Friday afternoon and evening. As northwesterly flow aloft intensifies, vertical mixing and offshore flow will favor drying of the boundary layer with RH falling below 40%. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, ongoing drought is supporting drier than average fuel conditions over much of the Northeast. The increase in gusty winds and low humidity could allow for a modest increase in local elevated fire-weather conditions late Friday. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... Low potential for thunderstorms exists ahead of the mid-level moisture surge over portions of northern CA and southern OR Friday into Friday night. Should storms form, a primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, a low-end chance for lightning ignitions exists if storms develop over areas of drier fuels. Widespread concerns are not expected. ...New England... Breezy conditions (gusts 10-15 mph) are possible over parts of New England behind a departing cold front Friday afternoon and evening. As northwesterly flow aloft intensifies, vertical mixing and offshore flow will favor drying of the boundary layer with RH falling below 40%. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, ongoing drought is supporting drier than average fuel conditions over much of the Northeast. The increase in gusty winds and low humidity could allow for a modest increase in local elevated fire-weather conditions late Friday. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... Low potential for thunderstorms exists ahead of the mid-level moisture surge over portions of northern CA and southern OR Friday into Friday night. Should storms form, a primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, a low-end chance for lightning ignitions exists if storms develop over areas of drier fuels. Widespread concerns are not expected. ...New England... Breezy conditions (gusts 10-15 mph) are possible over parts of New England behind a departing cold front Friday afternoon and evening. As northwesterly flow aloft intensifies, vertical mixing and offshore flow will favor drying of the boundary layer with RH falling below 40%. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, ongoing drought is supporting drier than average fuel conditions over much of the Northeast. The increase in gusty winds and low humidity could allow for a modest increase in local elevated fire-weather conditions late Friday. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... Low potential for thunderstorms exists ahead of the mid-level moisture surge over portions of northern CA and southern OR Friday into Friday night. Should storms form, a primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, a low-end chance for lightning ignitions exists if storms develop over areas of drier fuels. Widespread concerns are not expected. ...New England... Breezy conditions (gusts 10-15 mph) are possible over parts of New England behind a departing cold front Friday afternoon and evening. As northwesterly flow aloft intensifies, vertical mixing and offshore flow will favor drying of the boundary layer with RH falling below 40%. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, ongoing drought is supporting drier than average fuel conditions over much of the Northeast. The increase in gusty winds and low humidity could allow for a modest increase in local elevated fire-weather conditions late Friday. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... Low potential for thunderstorms exists ahead of the mid-level moisture surge over portions of northern CA and southern OR Friday into Friday night. Should storms form, a primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, a low-end chance for lightning ignitions exists if storms develop over areas of drier fuels. Widespread concerns are not expected. ...New England... Breezy conditions (gusts 10-15 mph) are possible over parts of New England behind a departing cold front Friday afternoon and evening. As northwesterly flow aloft intensifies, vertical mixing and offshore flow will favor drying of the boundary layer with RH falling below 40%. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, ongoing drought is supporting drier than average fuel conditions over much of the Northeast. The increase in gusty winds and low humidity could allow for a modest increase in local elevated fire-weather conditions late Friday. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... Low potential for thunderstorms exists ahead of the mid-level moisture surge over portions of northern CA and southern OR Friday into Friday night. Should storms form, a primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, a low-end chance for lightning ignitions exists if storms develop over areas of drier fuels. Widespread concerns are not expected. ...New England... Breezy conditions (gusts 10-15 mph) are possible over parts of New England behind a departing cold front Friday afternoon and evening. As northwesterly flow aloft intensifies, vertical mixing and offshore flow will favor drying of the boundary layer with RH falling below 40%. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, ongoing drought is supporting drier than average fuel conditions over much of the Northeast. The increase in gusty winds and low humidity could allow for a modest increase in local elevated fire-weather conditions late Friday. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Afternoon Update... Low potential for thunderstorms exists ahead of the mid-level moisture surge over portions of northern CA and southern OR Friday into Friday night. Should storms form, a primarily wet mode is expected with PWATS near or exceeding 1 inch at times, which should temper already limited fuels across the southern Cascades. Still, a low-end chance for lightning ignitions exists if storms develop over areas of drier fuels. Widespread concerns are not expected. ...New England... Breezy conditions (gusts 10-15 mph) are possible over parts of New England behind a departing cold front Friday afternoon and evening. As northwesterly flow aloft intensifies, vertical mixing and offshore flow will favor drying of the boundary layer with RH falling below 40%. While surface winds are not expected to be overly strong, ongoing drought is supporting drier than average fuel conditions over much of the Northeast. The increase in gusty winds and low humidity could allow for a modest increase in local elevated fire-weather conditions late Friday. ..Lyons.. 09/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A broad mid/upper-level trough will remain across parts of the central CONUS on Saturday, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough offshore of southern CA is forecast to move slowly eastward, while a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest later in the period. The broadly cyclonic flow regime will support thunderstorm potential across a large part of the CONUS, though generally weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit the organized severe threat. Scattered storms will again be possible across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, where relatively cool temperatures aloft could support a few strong storms. Morning convection is expected across parts of KS, with redevelopment possible during the afternoon from parts of OK/KS into the mid MS Valley. Depending on the extent of heating/destabilization, strong storms will be possible during the afternoon/evening across this region, though potential for a corridor of more organized severe threat is quite uncertain at this time. Isolated strong storms will also be possible in the CO Front Range vicinity, where somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear may be in place, but it remains uncertain if destabilization will be sufficient to support a severe-hail threat. ..Dean.. 09/18/2025 Read more