Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however. Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however. Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however. Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will migrate across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, maintaining broad upper troughing across much of the central U.S. Late in the period, another upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited due to poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear. Nevertheless, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints across portions of the Plains to the MS Valley will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will migrate across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, maintaining broad upper troughing across much of the central U.S. Late in the period, another upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited due to poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear. Nevertheless, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints across portions of the Plains to the MS Valley will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will migrate across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, maintaining broad upper troughing across much of the central U.S. Late in the period, another upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited due to poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear. Nevertheless, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints across portions of the Plains to the MS Valley will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will migrate across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, maintaining broad upper troughing across much of the central U.S. Late in the period, another upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited due to poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear. Nevertheless, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints across portions of the Plains to the MS Valley will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A pair of upper shortwave troughs will migrate across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Saturday, maintaining broad upper troughing across much of the central U.S. Late in the period, another upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest. Overall, severe potential is expected to remain limited due to poor lapse rates and weak vertical shear. Nevertheless, upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints across portions of the Plains to the MS Valley will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm activity. ..Leitman.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Upper Mississippi Valley as a weak upper trough meanders along the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). A surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley will encourage moist conditions across the Plains, while a benign surface pattern west of the Rockies will result in another quiescent day (fire weather wise) across the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions may persist over the Ohio Valley on Friday. However, like Day 1, the lack of a stronger surface wind field should limit the potential for wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second upper trough meanders along the California coastline today. A surface low over California will encourage ample precipitation accumulations over southern parts of the state, and a surface high over the Rockies will help promote quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions will persist over the Ohio Valley today. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field should limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second upper trough meanders along the California coastline today. A surface low over California will encourage ample precipitation accumulations over southern parts of the state, and a surface high over the Rockies will help promote quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions will persist over the Ohio Valley today. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field should limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second upper trough meanders along the California coastline today. A surface low over California will encourage ample precipitation accumulations over southern parts of the state, and a surface high over the Rockies will help promote quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions will persist over the Ohio Valley today. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field should limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second upper trough meanders along the California coastline today. A surface low over California will encourage ample precipitation accumulations over southern parts of the state, and a surface high over the Rockies will help promote quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions will persist over the Ohio Valley today. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field should limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Plains states as a second upper trough meanders along the California coastline today. A surface low over California will encourage ample precipitation accumulations over southern parts of the state, and a surface high over the Rockies will help promote quiescent fire weather conditions over the Interior West. Dry low-level conditions will persist over the Ohio Valley today. However, the lack of an appreciable surface wind field should limit wildfire-spread potential. ..Squitieri.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180537
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 17 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that the
circulation remains fairly well organized. Environmental conditions
are conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form in the next day or two while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific. However, the system is expected to encounter cooler
waters and a drier airmass over the weekend, which will inhibit
additional development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not currently expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will move across the northern/central Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley on Friday. At the surface, a weak low over southwest MN will lift north through the period, while a broad area of weak low pressure overspreads the central High Plains. Light southerly low-level flow will maintain mid 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints from the south-central U.S. northward into the Upper MS Valley. Pockets of weak instability are forecast, supporting diurnal thunderstorm activity from the southern Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Poor lapse rates and generally weak vertical shear will preclude severe thunderstorm potential through evening. As the upper shortwave trough ejects across NE toward the MO Valley overnight, isolated elevated convection could develop over KS in a warm advection regime. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates. Northwesterly flow aloft will also strengthen on the back side of the upper trough. A couple of strong storms could produce sub-severe hail. Additional thunderstorms are possible across parts of the West as an upper shortwave trough moves northward across CA/NV into OR, an shortwave perturbations migrate through upper ridging over the Four Corners. ..Leitman.. 09/18/2025 Read more