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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible mainly from late afternoon into tonight across Missouri into adjacent parts of the Lower Missouri Valley and southern Plains. Isolated strong to severe storms may also occur across southern California and the Lower Colorado River Valley. ...Missouri and Lower Missouri Valley to southern Plains... Generally isolated severe storms will be possible today regionally ahead of the east/southeast-advancing front (and residual convection/outflows), but a somewhat greater/semi-focused corridor of severe potential, mostly in the form of damaging winds, appears to exist across portions of Missouri. This will be influenced by modestly stronger cyclonic flow aloft attendant to the mid/upper-level trough, with a favorably warm/moderately unstable boundary layer this afternoon. Bouts of damaging winds will be possible regionally, with some hail as well. ...Southern California/Lower Colorado River Valley.... An anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into and across southern portions of California/Arizona. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PW value, which is well above the 90th percentile based on daily SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern California and southwest Arizona this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across southern California. Additional thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat may exist as well, particularly in the Lower Colorado Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Eastern South Dakota/southeast North Dakota/western Minnesota... In proximity to the upper low over the Dakotas, a relatively moist environment, sufficient cloud breaks/heating, ample low-level CAPE, and ambient vorticity near a weak surface low and nearby front could be sufficient for some funnels this afternoon through around sunset. A brief non-supercell tornado cannot be conclusively ruled out near the boundary/surface low if stronger destabilization materializes, but the overall potential/likelihood should remain limited. ..Guyer/Thornton.. 09/18/2025 Read more

Winter wheat planting began in areas of the Rolling Plains that received rainfall the previous week, though progress was expected to slow as soil moisture continued to decline. Farmers were preparing fields and plowing ground, but many were waiting for additional rain before planting more wheat and fall crops. Cotton remained in very good condition and benefited from recent heat. Producers stressed that at least one more timely rain would be needed to finish the boll fill. Producers were choosing to reduce late-season inputs, opting instead to let nature take its course. Hay harvest was ongoing, but dry topsoil and persistent heat limited production. Pastures were also stressed, reducing grazing for livestock. Despite the warm days, livestock condition remained good with cooler nights helping ease stress. Farmers and ranchers agreed that moisture was critical moving forward, but forecasts showed little chance of rain in the near future. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sep 16, 2025

Scattered showers occurred in parts of the Panhandle, while others continued with dry conditions. Soil moisture was short to adequate. Corn and sorghum silage harvests continued. Wheat was planted in some counties while producers in drier areas waited for moisture. Cotton producers were preparing for harvest aid applications to begin an early cotton harvest. Pasture and rangeland conditions were adequate, while some areas experienced drought conditions. Crop, pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sep 16, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OK INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from late afternoon into tonight from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri and over small parts of adjacent states. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern southern California and southwest Arizona as well. ...Southern CA/Southwest AZ... Anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into southern CA/AZ. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PWAT, which is well above the 90th percentile based on SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern CA and southwest AZ this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across eastern southern CA. Thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat exists as well, particularly in the Lower CO Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Central/Southern Plains into Ozarks and Mid/Lower MO Valley... Broad upper troughing remains in place across the northern/central Plains, anchored by a pair of modest cyclones, one currently centered over central SD and the other centered over the MT/SK border vicinity. Another shortwave trough is rotating through the base of this troughing, and is forecast to progress eastward/southward into KS and northern OK today before pivoting into IA/MO/AR during tonight. Surface analysis reveals a pair of lows, one beneath the central SD cyclone and another weaker one over northeast OK. Modest troughing extends between these lows and a diffuse cold front extends southwestward from the northeast OK low into the TX South Plains. Mid 60s dewpoints currently extend through much of eastern KS and western MO. A modest eastward/southeastward push of the cold front/surface trough is expected as the shortwave trough moves into KS, with ascent attendant to these features resulting in thunderstorm development from the Mid MO Valley across eastern KS/western MO into central OK and far northwest TX. Highest coverage appears most likely from far eastern KS into western MO, northeast OK, and northwest AR. Buoyancy and shear will both be fairly modest. However, strong high-level flow may support a greater chance of hail from the TX Panhandle into OK, while the coldest midlevel temperatures also support hail from eastern KS into MO. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OK INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from late afternoon into tonight from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri and over small parts of adjacent states. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern southern California and southwest Arizona as well. ...Southern CA/Southwest AZ... Anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into southern CA/AZ. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PWAT, which is well above the 90th percentile based on SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern CA and southwest AZ this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across eastern southern CA. Thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat exists as well, particularly in the Lower CO Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Central/Southern Plains into Ozarks and Mid/Lower MO Valley... Broad upper troughing remains in place across the northern/central Plains, anchored by a pair of modest cyclones, one currently centered over central SD and the other centered over the MT/SK border vicinity. Another shortwave trough is rotating through the base of this troughing, and is forecast to progress eastward/southward into KS and northern OK today before pivoting into IA/MO/AR during tonight. Surface analysis reveals a pair of lows, one beneath the central SD cyclone and another weaker one over northeast OK. Modest troughing extends between these lows and a diffuse cold front extends southwestward from the northeast OK low into the TX South Plains. Mid 60s dewpoints currently extend through much of eastern KS and western MO. A modest eastward/southeastward push of the cold front/surface trough is expected as the shortwave trough moves into KS, with ascent attendant to these features resulting in thunderstorm development from the Mid MO Valley across eastern KS/western MO into central OK and far northwest TX. Highest coverage appears most likely from far eastern KS into western MO, northeast OK, and northwest AR. Buoyancy and shear will both be fairly modest. However, strong high-level flow may support a greater chance of hail from the TX Panhandle into OK, while the coldest midlevel temperatures also support hail from eastern KS into MO. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OK INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from late afternoon into tonight from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri and over small parts of adjacent states. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern southern California and southwest Arizona as well. ...Southern CA/Southwest AZ... Anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into southern CA/AZ. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PWAT, which is well above the 90th percentile based on SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern CA and southwest AZ this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across eastern southern CA. Thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat exists as well, particularly in the Lower CO Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Central/Southern Plains into Ozarks and Mid/Lower MO Valley... Broad upper troughing remains in place across the northern/central Plains, anchored by a pair of modest cyclones, one currently centered over central SD and the other centered over the MT/SK border vicinity. Another shortwave trough is rotating through the base of this troughing, and is forecast to progress eastward/southward into KS and northern OK today before pivoting into IA/MO/AR during tonight. Surface analysis reveals a pair of lows, one beneath the central SD cyclone and another weaker one over northeast OK. Modest troughing extends between these lows and a diffuse cold front extends southwestward from the northeast OK low into the TX South Plains. Mid 60s dewpoints currently extend through much of eastern KS and western MO. A modest eastward/southeastward push of the cold front/surface trough is expected as the shortwave trough moves into KS, with ascent attendant to these features resulting in thunderstorm development from the Mid MO Valley across eastern KS/western MO into central OK and far northwest TX. Highest coverage appears most likely from far eastern KS into western MO, northeast OK, and northwest AR. Buoyancy and shear will both be fairly modest. However, strong high-level flow may support a greater chance of hail from the TX Panhandle into OK, while the coldest midlevel temperatures also support hail from eastern KS into MO. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OK INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO VALLEY...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AND SOUTHWEST AZ... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe storms are possible from late afternoon into tonight from parts of Oklahoma into Missouri and over small parts of adjacent states. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern southern California and southwest Arizona as well. ...Southern CA/Southwest AZ... Anomalously moist airmass associated with the remnants of tropical cyclone Mario continues to advect northward into southern CA/AZ. 12Z NKX sounding sampled a 1.95 PWAT, which is well above the 90th percentile based on SPC sounding climatology. Filtered heating is anticipated within this moist environment, resulting in moderate buoyancy across much of eastern southern CA and southwest AZ this afternoon. Moderate vertical shear is anticipated as well, particularly across eastern southern CA. Thunderstorm development is expected during the afternoon, with a predominantly multicellular mode. However, enough shear and instability are in place to support organization with any more persistent updrafts, and a few supercells capable of damaging gusts are possible. A very-low-probability tornado threat exists as well, particularly in the Lower CO Valley vicinity where some guidance suggests surface winds stay more southeasterly. Even so, the low-level flow is weak and any tornado threat should be very localized. ...Central/Southern Plains into Ozarks and Mid/Lower MO Valley... Broad upper troughing remains in place across the northern/central Plains, anchored by a pair of modest cyclones, one currently centered over central SD and the other centered over the MT/SK border vicinity. Another shortwave trough is rotating through the base of this troughing, and is forecast to progress eastward/southward into KS and northern OK today before pivoting into IA/MO/AR during tonight. Surface analysis reveals a pair of lows, one beneath the central SD cyclone and another weaker one over northeast OK. Modest troughing extends between these lows and a diffuse cold front extends southwestward from the northeast OK low into the TX South Plains. Mid 60s dewpoints currently extend through much of eastern KS and western MO. A modest eastward/southeastward push of the cold front/surface trough is expected as the shortwave trough moves into KS, with ascent attendant to these features resulting in thunderstorm development from the Mid MO Valley across eastern KS/western MO into central OK and far northwest TX. Highest coverage appears most likely from far eastern KS into western MO, northeast OK, and northwest AR. Buoyancy and shear will both be fairly modest. However, strong high-level flow may support a greater chance of hail from the TX Panhandle into OK, while the coldest midlevel temperatures also support hail from eastern KS into MO. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 09/18/2025 Read more

887
ABPZ20 KNHC 181109
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Although a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next day or two, the system is forecast to
encounter progressively cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a
drier, stable airmass over the weekend, which should inhibit any
additional development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however. Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern Rockies on Day 4/Sun while low-amplitude, broad upper troughing persists across the central portion of the CONUS. By Day 5/Mon, the northern Rockies upper trough is expected to rapidly deepen as it overspread the plains. Rich boundary layer moisture if forecast to be in place across portions of the southern/central Plains into the MS Valley as a strong cold front moves across parts of the Plains. While the timing of the upper trough ejecting into the Plains is uncertain, some severe potential could develop on Day 5/Mon across the southern/central Plains toward the Mid/Lower MO Valley. Uncertainty remains too high to include 15 percent probabilities at this time however. Beyond Day 5/Mon, uncertainty increases as large spread among model guidance persists with regard to the evolution of a developing upper low somewhere over the mid-section of the CONUS into Day 8/Thu. Severe potential is uncertain, and the overall pattern may favor heavy rain over organized severe heading into Day 6/Tue, but model trends will continue to be monitored. Read more