Aggregator

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southwestern Nebraska into western and central Kansas late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by at least some risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Little change to the larger-scale pattern is forecast through this period, with the stronger/more amplified flow remaining confined to the northern mid-latitudes. This includes a significant, slow moving trough with several embedded perturbations pivoting around a mid-level circulation digging through the Canadian Maritimes. It appears that this will support renewed offshore cyclogenesis, with trailing intrusions of cool air continuing to overspread the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. Upstream, the exit region of a strong mid/upper jet may continue to nose across the northeastern Pacific through British Columbia coast vicinity. In between, and at lower latitudes, weaker split flow will persist across much of the U.S., with embedded troughing in one branch slowly shifting east of the northern Great Plains, while troughing in another remains quasi-stationary across the Southeast and offshore of the California coast. ...Central Great Plains... On the southwestern flank of the troughing slowly shifting toward/into the mid/upper Mississippi Valley vicinity, a notable smaller-scale perturbation is generally forecast to continue digging southwest through south of the Black Hills vicinity, before turning eastward near/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley later today through tonight. It appears that this will be accompanied by moderate strengthening of northwesterly mid-level level flow (to 30-50 kt around 500 mb), near the southern periphery of a modest mid-level cold pool (-12 to -14 C around 500 mb). With sufficient destabilization, associated strengthening of deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent may become at least conditionally supportive of supercells and perhaps an organized upscale growing cluster. Although there is notable spread among the various model output, a zone of strengthening differential surface heating, to the northeast of a modest developing lee surface low, may provide the focus for destabilization and thunderstorm initiation across parts of southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late this afternoon. By this evening, as convection progresses toward west central/central Kansas, forcing for ascent on the nose of a modestly strengthening southwesterly low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around 850 mb) may maintain convective development and support an upscale growing, east-southeastward propagating cluster into the overnight hours. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/19/2025 Read more

MD 2100 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... FOR MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2100 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0843 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Areas affected...Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 190143Z - 190315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat is decreasing across Missouri this evening. Even so, a few gusts remain possible for the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Robust frontal convection that spread across western into central MO has shown significant weakening over the last hour. This activity has overturned the primary corridor of instability and only a narrow zone of roughly 500 J/kg MLCAPE exists along the eastern fringes of ww614. 00z sounding from SGF exhibits a very stable rain-cooled profile, and moisture/instability is considerably less near the MO/IL border. For these reasons current weakening trends are expected to continue and a new watch will not be issued. ..Darrow.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... LAT...LON 36809233 38419223 39599269 39839196 38829132 36819154 36809233 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW UNO TO 10 WSW TBN TO 15 S JEF TO 25 NE COU TO 40 SSE IRK. WW 614 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190300Z. ..HALBERT..09/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-027-125-151-161-169-215-190300- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN CALLAWAY MARIES OSAGE PHELPS PULASKI TEXAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 614 SEVERE TSTM MO 182100Z - 190300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 614 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central and Southern Missouri * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...The influence of an upper trough and a warm/moist air mass that precedes it will allow for intensifying thunderstorms through late afternoon, with wind damage/some hail possible through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Knob Noster MO to 55 miles south southeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2099 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 614... FOR MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2099 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0603 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Areas affected...Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614... Valid 182303Z - 190100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 614 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated wind/hail can be expected with convection as it spreads east this evening. DISCUSSION...A well-defined short-wave trough is advancing east across NE/KS early this evening. In response to this short wave, a weak surface boundary is serving as the focus for a broken line of robust convection, currently extending from Livingston County MO-Barry County MO-Crawford County AR. This activity is propagating through a modestly buoyant corridor of instability characterized by 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated severe winds and marginally severe hail have been reported with these storms, but 0-6km shear is seasonally weak and 500mb flow is on the order of 20-25kt. As a result, gusty winds should be the primary threat with this frontal convection as it propagates toward the eastern edge of ww614. ..Darrow.. 09/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA... LAT...LON 36489407 39449427 39449201 36499192 36489407 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0614 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N FLP TO 35 SW TBN TO 40 NW TBN TO 25 WSW JEF TO 25 WNW COU TO 45 SSW IRK. ..HALBERT..09/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 614 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MOC007-019-027-029-051-067-089-105-125-131-135-151-153-161-169- 175-215-229-190140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUDRAIN BOONE CALLAWAY CAMDEN COLE DOUGLAS HOWARD LACLEDE MARIES MILLER MONITEAU OSAGE OZARK PHELPS PULASKI RANDOLPH TEXAS WRIGHT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms posing some risk for marginally severe wind or hail remain possible across parts of the lower Missouri Valley into southern Great Plains and across parts of the Southwest tonight. ...01Z Update... ...Lower Missouri Valley... A couple of stronger storms linger within a convective band aided by forcing for ascent associated with one short wave trough slowly pivoting north-northeastward into/through the lower Missouri Valley. In general, though, convection is waning in intensity with the loss of daytime heating, and these trends are likely to result in increasingly negligible severe weather potential into mid/late evening. ...Southern Great Plains... Convection allowing guidance, among other model output, continues to indicate that increasing thunderstorm development is still possible late this evening into the overnight hours across parts of central Oklahoma, perhaps supported by forcing for ascent aided by weak lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. As this occurs, thermodynamic profiles and deep-layer shear might be conducive to a couple of stronger storms posing at least some risk for marginally severe hail and locally strong wind gusts. ...Southwest... The boundary-layer remains very warm and deeply mixed across the lower deserts of south central into central Arizona, where ongoing north/northeastward propagating convection could still be accompanied by a locally strong downburst or two through mid to late evening. ..Kerr.. 09/19/2025 Read more

154
ABPZ20 KNHC 182332
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 18 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of the Southern Tip of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms remain displaced well to the west of a
broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Although a tropical
depression is still likely to form during the next day or so, the
system is forecast to encounter progressively cooler waters and a
drier, stable airmass over the weekend, which will inhibit any
further development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a
couple of hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions
could support some gradual development of this system during the
next several days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 5
to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart