Aggregator

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HALBERT..09/20/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-047-051-053-055-057-069-083-095-097-101-105-113-135-145- 151-155-159-165-167-169-185-195-200140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GRAY HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL SALINE STAFFORD TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2103 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Areas affected...Northern and Central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192232Z - 200030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A pair of supercells across portions of northern Kansas continue generally southward, with a history of hail production and damaging winds. While storm reports have yet to suggest significant hail sizes are reaching the surface, large hail, large volumes of hail, and strong to damaging winds within downdraft cores will continue to be possible. Weather watch issuance could be needed. DISCUSSION...Though the easternmost of these supercells appears to be heading into a more convectively inhibited airmass, the western cell has taken on a motion that is more due-south along the CAPE gradient. With 45-50 kts of effective deep-layer shear, and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, the expectation is for these storms to continue to persist for at least a few hours and continue to be capable of large hail and damaging winds. While both storms will continue to pose a threat, the supercell north of Quinter, KS will pose the longer-term threat into this evening. ..Halbert/Bunting.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39430036 39569978 39609885 39589849 39429803 39069758 38739736 38419727 38199728 38019755 37859804 37839856 37849902 37859977 38020014 38360029 38770037 39270044 39370039 39430036 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 2103 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2103 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Areas affected...Northern and Central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192232Z - 200030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A pair of supercells across portions of northern Kansas continue generally southward, with a history of hail production and damaging winds. While storm reports have yet to suggest significant hail sizes are reaching the surface, large hail, large volumes of hail, and strong to damaging winds within downdraft cores will continue to be possible. Weather watch issuance could be needed. DISCUSSION...Though the easternmost of these supercells appears to be heading into a more convectively inhibited airmass, the western cell has taken on a motion that is more due-south along the CAPE gradient. With 45-50 kts of effective deep-layer shear, and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, the expectation is for these storms to continue to persist for at least a few hours and continue to be capable of large hail and damaging winds. While both storms will continue to pose a threat, the supercell north of Quinter, KS will pose the longer-term threat into this evening. ..Halbert/Bunting.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39430036 39569978 39609885 39589849 39429803 39069758 38739736 38419727 38199728 38019755 37859804 37839856 37849902 37859977 38020014 38360029 38770037 39270044 39370039 39430036 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

370
ABNT20 KNHC 192318
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located in the central tropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some slow
development of this system is possible through the middle to latter
part of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

285
ABPZ20 KNHC 192318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
An elongated area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is
producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity displaced well to
the southwest of the surface center. The system is expected to
encounter more hostile environmental conditions and cooler waters
this weekend while moving slowly west-northwestward, and further
development appears unlikely.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

MD 2102 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2102 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Areas affected...Central and Western Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192146Z - 192345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms north of a surface warm front will continue to show intermittent strong to severe intensity. These storms ware capable primarily of winds near 60 MPH and hail generally less than 1.25 inches. DISCUSSION...The cluster of thunderstorms over central Wisconsin and into the Driftless region will continue to be capable of strong to severe intensity as they move parallel-to and north-of a surface warm frontal boundary extending from central Minnesota into the Chicago area. The environment is characterized by modest buoyancy 0f 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, but with shear generally around the 20-25 kt range. Given the boundary-parallel storm motion and general lack of upper-level support, only transient periods of intensification and decay are expected. These storms could be capable of 60 MPH winds and up to 1.25 inch hail, with some reports of 0.75 inch hail already recorded. Some additional intensification and organization could occur through the early evening, primarily along and north of the warm front, due to some locally enhanced low-level storm relative helicity. This could result in brief periods of organization or even rotation, but the overall storm mode favoring thunderstorm clusters will result in unfavorable storm interactions that prevent prolonged intensification. No weather watch is expected at this time. ..Halbert/Bunting.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 43689070 44229169 44889192 45249192 45389144 45099065 44668983 44378926 44198905 43928910 43628919 43468946 43408994 43429007 43689070 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0615 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0615 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 615 SEVERE TSTM KS 192250Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Kansas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 550 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will move southeast across the watch area through early evening with a risk for mainly large hail, and strong to damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Dodge City KS to 10 miles northeast of Hutchinson KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 32025. ...Bunting Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 19 22:34:02 UTC 2025.

MD 2101 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2101 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Areas affected...extreme southern Nebraska into much of northwest/north-central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192009Z - 192245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in cover across northwest/north-central Kansas, and a few storms may produce hail over 1.00" diameter. DISCUSSION...An area of convection with a lone severe cell continues to push southeastward into far south-central NE, in association with a midlevel wave with cooling aloft and a surface boundary. Extending west/southwest along the front are newly developing cells into far northwest KS. South/ahead of this activity, temperatures continue to warm, into the lower 80s F. Modified forecast soundings show the air mass is now uncapped over much of western KS. The combination of increasing northwest flow aloft and gusty southerly winds in the boundary layer results in a favorable wind profile for southeastward moving cells capable of hail. Given the favorable time of day and approaching upper wave, it is likely that storms will increase in coverage, and spread southeastward across the warming air mass south of the front. Instability is not particularly strong, but at least 1.00" hail is likely with the stronger cores through the afternoon. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 39830183 40199894 39929852 39099827 38809846 38699882 38679928 38679996 38700084 38940143 39200174 39650199 39830183 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will move through the Pacific Northwest bringing wetting rains west of the Cascades. Increasing cloud cover as well as rising relative humidity will be counteracted with stronger onshore flow and downslope westerly winds on the lee of the Cascades and portions of the Columbia Basin Day 3/Sunday. The very dry conditions Saturday will maintain existing dry fuels across the region, with 40% critical probabilities maintained for portions of the Columbia Basin. Residual sub-tropical moisture, daytime instability and topographic forcing will support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 3/Sunday. More diffuse moisture will be in place overall, leading to some dry lightning strikes outside wetting rain cores. However, fuels remain only marginally receptive to ignition with widespread new lightning starts not expected. ...Days 4-6/Monday-Wednesday... Surface high pressure settling into the northern Rockies along with a developing coastal trough will support weak easterly offshore flow across the Cascades Day 5/Tuesday, potentially extending into Day 6/Wednesday. Lower daytime relative humidity as well as poor overnight recoveries could impact existing fires but the relatively light east winds as well as preceding precipitation this weekend should attenuate a significant fire weather threat. A mid-level troughing pattern evolving across the eastern CONUS next week will promote widespread wetting rains across the Midwest, Ohio River Valley and Appalachians, where fuels have been persistently dry. This should reduce the fire weather threat across the region with the exception of the Deep South, where limited rainfall could sustain very dry fuels. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... An increase in forecast uncertainty in the evolution of upper-level flow pattern exists in the long term. A potential trough/low could bring additional rain into the southern California and the Desert Southwest by the end of next week while a general warming and drying trend becomes established across the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. However, fuel conditions are expected to remain rather benign in terms of supporting wildfire spread in the long term. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will move through the Pacific Northwest bringing wetting rains west of the Cascades. Increasing cloud cover as well as rising relative humidity will be counteracted with stronger onshore flow and downslope westerly winds on the lee of the Cascades and portions of the Columbia Basin Day 3/Sunday. The very dry conditions Saturday will maintain existing dry fuels across the region, with 40% critical probabilities maintained for portions of the Columbia Basin. Residual sub-tropical moisture, daytime instability and topographic forcing will support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 3/Sunday. More diffuse moisture will be in place overall, leading to some dry lightning strikes outside wetting rain cores. However, fuels remain only marginally receptive to ignition with widespread new lightning starts not expected. ...Days 4-6/Monday-Wednesday... Surface high pressure settling into the northern Rockies along with a developing coastal trough will support weak easterly offshore flow across the Cascades Day 5/Tuesday, potentially extending into Day 6/Wednesday. Lower daytime relative humidity as well as poor overnight recoveries could impact existing fires but the relatively light east winds as well as preceding precipitation this weekend should attenuate a significant fire weather threat. A mid-level troughing pattern evolving across the eastern CONUS next week will promote widespread wetting rains across the Midwest, Ohio River Valley and Appalachians, where fuels have been persistently dry. This should reduce the fire weather threat across the region with the exception of the Deep South, where limited rainfall could sustain very dry fuels. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... An increase in forecast uncertainty in the evolution of upper-level flow pattern exists in the long term. A potential trough/low could bring additional rain into the southern California and the Desert Southwest by the end of next week while a general warming and drying trend becomes established across the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. However, fuel conditions are expected to remain rather benign in terms of supporting wildfire spread in the long term. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will move through the Pacific Northwest bringing wetting rains west of the Cascades. Increasing cloud cover as well as rising relative humidity will be counteracted with stronger onshore flow and downslope westerly winds on the lee of the Cascades and portions of the Columbia Basin Day 3/Sunday. The very dry conditions Saturday will maintain existing dry fuels across the region, with 40% critical probabilities maintained for portions of the Columbia Basin. Residual sub-tropical moisture, daytime instability and topographic forcing will support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 3/Sunday. More diffuse moisture will be in place overall, leading to some dry lightning strikes outside wetting rain cores. However, fuels remain only marginally receptive to ignition with widespread new lightning starts not expected. ...Days 4-6/Monday-Wednesday... Surface high pressure settling into the northern Rockies along with a developing coastal trough will support weak easterly offshore flow across the Cascades Day 5/Tuesday, potentially extending into Day 6/Wednesday. Lower daytime relative humidity as well as poor overnight recoveries could impact existing fires but the relatively light east winds as well as preceding precipitation this weekend should attenuate a significant fire weather threat. A mid-level troughing pattern evolving across the eastern CONUS next week will promote widespread wetting rains across the Midwest, Ohio River Valley and Appalachians, where fuels have been persistently dry. This should reduce the fire weather threat across the region with the exception of the Deep South, where limited rainfall could sustain very dry fuels. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... An increase in forecast uncertainty in the evolution of upper-level flow pattern exists in the long term. A potential trough/low could bring additional rain into the southern California and the Desert Southwest by the end of next week while a general warming and drying trend becomes established across the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. However, fuel conditions are expected to remain rather benign in terms of supporting wildfire spread in the long term. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will move through the Pacific Northwest bringing wetting rains west of the Cascades. Increasing cloud cover as well as rising relative humidity will be counteracted with stronger onshore flow and downslope westerly winds on the lee of the Cascades and portions of the Columbia Basin Day 3/Sunday. The very dry conditions Saturday will maintain existing dry fuels across the region, with 40% critical probabilities maintained for portions of the Columbia Basin. Residual sub-tropical moisture, daytime instability and topographic forcing will support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 3/Sunday. More diffuse moisture will be in place overall, leading to some dry lightning strikes outside wetting rain cores. However, fuels remain only marginally receptive to ignition with widespread new lightning starts not expected. ...Days 4-6/Monday-Wednesday... Surface high pressure settling into the northern Rockies along with a developing coastal trough will support weak easterly offshore flow across the Cascades Day 5/Tuesday, potentially extending into Day 6/Wednesday. Lower daytime relative humidity as well as poor overnight recoveries could impact existing fires but the relatively light east winds as well as preceding precipitation this weekend should attenuate a significant fire weather threat. A mid-level troughing pattern evolving across the eastern CONUS next week will promote widespread wetting rains across the Midwest, Ohio River Valley and Appalachians, where fuels have been persistently dry. This should reduce the fire weather threat across the region with the exception of the Deep South, where limited rainfall could sustain very dry fuels. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... An increase in forecast uncertainty in the evolution of upper-level flow pattern exists in the long term. A potential trough/low could bring additional rain into the southern California and the Desert Southwest by the end of next week while a general warming and drying trend becomes established across the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. However, fuel conditions are expected to remain rather benign in terms of supporting wildfire spread in the long term. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will move through the Pacific Northwest bringing wetting rains west of the Cascades. Increasing cloud cover as well as rising relative humidity will be counteracted with stronger onshore flow and downslope westerly winds on the lee of the Cascades and portions of the Columbia Basin Day 3/Sunday. The very dry conditions Saturday will maintain existing dry fuels across the region, with 40% critical probabilities maintained for portions of the Columbia Basin. Residual sub-tropical moisture, daytime instability and topographic forcing will support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 3/Sunday. More diffuse moisture will be in place overall, leading to some dry lightning strikes outside wetting rain cores. However, fuels remain only marginally receptive to ignition with widespread new lightning starts not expected. ...Days 4-6/Monday-Wednesday... Surface high pressure settling into the northern Rockies along with a developing coastal trough will support weak easterly offshore flow across the Cascades Day 5/Tuesday, potentially extending into Day 6/Wednesday. Lower daytime relative humidity as well as poor overnight recoveries could impact existing fires but the relatively light east winds as well as preceding precipitation this weekend should attenuate a significant fire weather threat. A mid-level troughing pattern evolving across the eastern CONUS next week will promote widespread wetting rains across the Midwest, Ohio River Valley and Appalachians, where fuels have been persistently dry. This should reduce the fire weather threat across the region with the exception of the Deep South, where limited rainfall could sustain very dry fuels. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... An increase in forecast uncertainty in the evolution of upper-level flow pattern exists in the long term. A potential trough/low could bring additional rain into the southern California and the Desert Southwest by the end of next week while a general warming and drying trend becomes established across the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. However, fuel conditions are expected to remain rather benign in terms of supporting wildfire spread in the long term. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will move through the Pacific Northwest bringing wetting rains west of the Cascades. Increasing cloud cover as well as rising relative humidity will be counteracted with stronger onshore flow and downslope westerly winds on the lee of the Cascades and portions of the Columbia Basin Day 3/Sunday. The very dry conditions Saturday will maintain existing dry fuels across the region, with 40% critical probabilities maintained for portions of the Columbia Basin. Residual sub-tropical moisture, daytime instability and topographic forcing will support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 3/Sunday. More diffuse moisture will be in place overall, leading to some dry lightning strikes outside wetting rain cores. However, fuels remain only marginally receptive to ignition with widespread new lightning starts not expected. ...Days 4-6/Monday-Wednesday... Surface high pressure settling into the northern Rockies along with a developing coastal trough will support weak easterly offshore flow across the Cascades Day 5/Tuesday, potentially extending into Day 6/Wednesday. Lower daytime relative humidity as well as poor overnight recoveries could impact existing fires but the relatively light east winds as well as preceding precipitation this weekend should attenuate a significant fire weather threat. A mid-level troughing pattern evolving across the eastern CONUS next week will promote widespread wetting rains across the Midwest, Ohio River Valley and Appalachians, where fuels have been persistently dry. This should reduce the fire weather threat across the region with the exception of the Deep South, where limited rainfall could sustain very dry fuels. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... An increase in forecast uncertainty in the evolution of upper-level flow pattern exists in the long term. A potential trough/low could bring additional rain into the southern California and the Desert Southwest by the end of next week while a general warming and drying trend becomes established across the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. However, fuel conditions are expected to remain rather benign in terms of supporting wildfire spread in the long term. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z ...Day 3/Sunday... A mid-level trough and attendant surface cold front will move through the Pacific Northwest bringing wetting rains west of the Cascades. Increasing cloud cover as well as rising relative humidity will be counteracted with stronger onshore flow and downslope westerly winds on the lee of the Cascades and portions of the Columbia Basin Day 3/Sunday. The very dry conditions Saturday will maintain existing dry fuels across the region, with 40% critical probabilities maintained for portions of the Columbia Basin. Residual sub-tropical moisture, daytime instability and topographic forcing will support another day of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across much of the Intermountain West on Day 3/Sunday. More diffuse moisture will be in place overall, leading to some dry lightning strikes outside wetting rain cores. However, fuels remain only marginally receptive to ignition with widespread new lightning starts not expected. ...Days 4-6/Monday-Wednesday... Surface high pressure settling into the northern Rockies along with a developing coastal trough will support weak easterly offshore flow across the Cascades Day 5/Tuesday, potentially extending into Day 6/Wednesday. Lower daytime relative humidity as well as poor overnight recoveries could impact existing fires but the relatively light east winds as well as preceding precipitation this weekend should attenuate a significant fire weather threat. A mid-level troughing pattern evolving across the eastern CONUS next week will promote widespread wetting rains across the Midwest, Ohio River Valley and Appalachians, where fuels have been persistently dry. This should reduce the fire weather threat across the region with the exception of the Deep South, where limited rainfall could sustain very dry fuels. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... An increase in forecast uncertainty in the evolution of upper-level flow pattern exists in the long term. A potential trough/low could bring additional rain into the southern California and the Desert Southwest by the end of next week while a general warming and drying trend becomes established across the Northern Rockies and Pacific Northwest. However, fuel conditions are expected to remain rather benign in terms of supporting wildfire spread in the long term. ..Williams.. 09/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more