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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the south central Great Plains late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail. ...Discussion... In the northern mid-latitudes, flow across the Pacific appears likely to remain strong and zonal, with one significant short wave trough on the leading edge of this regime forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia and portions of Pacific Northwest coastal areas during this period. Downstream, models indicate that flow will remain more amplified across Canada into the northern Atlantic, with one significant trough and embedded cyclone slowly progressing offshore into the Labrador Sea/northwestern Atlantic vicinity. In the wake of this feature, the center of cool surface ridging is forecast shift from western Quebec into New England, with a ridge axis building south-southwestward to the lee of the Appalachians through much of the Atlantic Seaboard. In advance of the trough migrating inland of the Pacific, modest deepening of surface troughing appears possible as far south as the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies. However, much of the U.S. and adjacent interior southern Canada will generally remain under the influence of a weak split flow including larger-scale troughing in one branch across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, and troughing across the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific and across the Southeast, within another branch. ...South Central Great Plains... Near the southwestern flank of the broad mid/upper troughing roughly centered across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley, it appears that boundary-layer destabilization may become characterized by moderately large CAPE in a pre-frontal corridor centered across the Texas Panhandle through northern Oklahoma by late this afternoon. As this maximizes, it appears that low-level convergence near modestly deepening surface troughing will support that initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity, perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with a subtle digging short wave perturbation. Although deep-layer wind fields and shear are forecast to be generally weak, forecast soundings characterized by relatively steep low-level lapse rates, including modestly deep boundary-layer mixing, appear conducive to localized strong to severe gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail with stronger cells into early to mid evening. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the south central Great Plains late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail. ...Discussion... In the northern mid-latitudes, flow across the Pacific appears likely to remain strong and zonal, with one significant short wave trough on the leading edge of this regime forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia and portions of Pacific Northwest coastal areas during this period. Downstream, models indicate that flow will remain more amplified across Canada into the northern Atlantic, with one significant trough and embedded cyclone slowly progressing offshore into the Labrador Sea/northwestern Atlantic vicinity. In the wake of this feature, the center of cool surface ridging is forecast shift from western Quebec into New England, with a ridge axis building south-southwestward to the lee of the Appalachians through much of the Atlantic Seaboard. In advance of the trough migrating inland of the Pacific, modest deepening of surface troughing appears possible as far south as the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies. However, much of the U.S. and adjacent interior southern Canada will generally remain under the influence of a weak split flow including larger-scale troughing in one branch across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, and troughing across the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific and across the Southeast, within another branch. ...South Central Great Plains... Near the southwestern flank of the broad mid/upper troughing roughly centered across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley, it appears that boundary-layer destabilization may become characterized by moderately large CAPE in a pre-frontal corridor centered across the Texas Panhandle through northern Oklahoma by late this afternoon. As this maximizes, it appears that low-level convergence near modestly deepening surface troughing will support that initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity, perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with a subtle digging short wave perturbation. Although deep-layer wind fields and shear are forecast to be generally weak, forecast soundings characterized by relatively steep low-level lapse rates, including modestly deep boundary-layer mixing, appear conducive to localized strong to severe gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail with stronger cells into early to mid evening. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the south central Great Plains late this afternoon and evening, accompanied by some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail. ...Discussion... In the northern mid-latitudes, flow across the Pacific appears likely to remain strong and zonal, with one significant short wave trough on the leading edge of this regime forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia and portions of Pacific Northwest coastal areas during this period. Downstream, models indicate that flow will remain more amplified across Canada into the northern Atlantic, with one significant trough and embedded cyclone slowly progressing offshore into the Labrador Sea/northwestern Atlantic vicinity. In the wake of this feature, the center of cool surface ridging is forecast shift from western Quebec into New England, with a ridge axis building south-southwestward to the lee of the Appalachians through much of the Atlantic Seaboard. In advance of the trough migrating inland of the Pacific, modest deepening of surface troughing appears possible as far south as the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies. However, much of the U.S. and adjacent interior southern Canada will generally remain under the influence of a weak split flow including larger-scale troughing in one branch across the northern Great Plains into Great Lakes/Ohio Valley, and troughing across the southern mid-/subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific and across the Southeast, within another branch. ...South Central Great Plains... Near the southwestern flank of the broad mid/upper troughing roughly centered across the mid/upper Mississippi Valley, it appears that boundary-layer destabilization may become characterized by moderately large CAPE in a pre-frontal corridor centered across the Texas Panhandle through northern Oklahoma by late this afternoon. As this maximizes, it appears that low-level convergence near modestly deepening surface troughing will support that initiation of scattered thunderstorm activity, perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with a subtle digging short wave perturbation. Although deep-layer wind fields and shear are forecast to be generally weak, forecast soundings characterized by relatively steep low-level lapse rates, including modestly deep boundary-layer mixing, appear conducive to localized strong to severe gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail with stronger cells into early to mid evening. ..Kerr/Halbert.. 09/20/2025 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 200507
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity well south of the Cabo Verde
Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible through
the middle to latter part of next week while it moves
west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 200502
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

South of the Baja California Peninsula (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad area of low
pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula has continued to diminish this
evening and remains displaced well to the west and southwest of the
center of circulation. The system is forecast to move
west-northwestward into a more hostile environment this weekend,
where cooler waters and a drier airmass will inhibit further
development.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of this system during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
during the early to middle part of next week while it moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
*Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Gibbs

MD 2105 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Areas affected...South-central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615... Valid 200343Z - 200445Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to intermittently severe convection will persist as WW 0615 expires. No downstream WW issuance is expected at this time. DISCUSSION...Warm air advection associated with a nocturnal low-level jet will continue to support thunderstorms into the overnight hours -- some of which may be capable of isolated incidents of hail or damaging wind gusts. However, no further WW issuance is expected at this time. ..Halbert.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38420044 38619996 38539937 38179875 37899841 37689816 37449811 37219837 37089869 37079925 37089965 37129997 37370023 37980044 38420044 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 2104 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Areas affected...Central and South Central Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615... Valid 200150Z - 200345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 615 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms within WW 0615 are expected to persist for the next couple of hours, and maintain a threat for damaging straight-line winds and hail. DISCUSSION...A loose cluster of supercell thunderstorms continues south-southeastward across the western and central portions of WW 0615. The 00Z DDC RAOB downstream of the current convection showed an unstable and uncapped airmass, approximately 40 kts of deep layer shear, and fairly substantial 0-3km SRH exceeding 200 m^2 / s^2. Though the nocturnal boundary layer has (and will continue) to stabilize, warm air advection influenced by a modest nocturnal low-level jet will continue to support elevated convection over the next couple of hours. This low-level jet is also influencing the low-level curvature of the hodograph, which will further support continued storm intensity through the maintenance of low-level and mid-level mesocyclones. Given the decrease in buoyancy with eastward extent, the expectation is that storm severity will also decrease with eastward extent. The primary threat will be for hail up to 1.75 inches, and 60 MPH winds. ..Halbert.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38870060 38970036 38989970 38969925 38809892 38359866 38039854 37819849 37559869 37379909 37379957 37410010 37470034 37620060 38160072 38530071 38710070 38870060 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S HLC TO 10 W ICT. WW 615 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 200400Z. ..HALBERT..09/20/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC047-055-057-069-083-095-097-101-135-200400- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE NESS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 615 SEVERE TSTM KS 192250Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 615 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Kansas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 550 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will move southeast across the watch area through early evening with a risk for mainly large hail, and strong to damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Dodge City KS to 10 miles northeast of Hutchinson KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 32025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSW HLC TO 15 SSE RSL TO 30 SSE RSL TO 35 NNE ICT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2104 ..HALBERT..09/20/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-047-055-057-069-083-095-097-101-135-145-155-159-165- 200340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON EDWARDS FINNEY FORD GRAY HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE NESS PAWNEE RENO RICE RUSH THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0615 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE RSL TO 30 SSE RSL TO 35 NNE ICT. ..HALBERT..09/20/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 615 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-047-051-055-057-069-083-095-097-101-135-145-151-155-159- 165-167-185-195-200240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON EDWARDS ELLIS FINNEY FORD GRAY HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE NESS PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RUSH RUSSELL STAFFORD TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong storms may continue to pose a risk for severe hail across west central Kansas through mid to late evening, before perhaps consolidating into a small cluster with potential to produce a few strong wind gusts into south central Kansas overnight. ...01z Update... A convectively reinforced surface cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation now turning eastward across and east/northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, remains a focus for vigorous thunderstorm development near the Hill City/Russell vicinity of west central Kansas. This likely has been aided by differential surface heating, and forcing for ascent associated with some combination of frontogenesis/convergence and warm advection. Although a corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer instability near modest lee surface troughing across western Kansas, to the south of the front, is beginning to wane with the loss of daytime heating, deep-layer shear remains strong beneath 30-40 kt northwesterly mid-level flow. Most guidance continues to indicate the development of a 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb jet across the Texas Panhandle into south central Kansas through 03-06Z. As this occurs, ongoing thunderstorm activity may be maintained, and potentially grow upscale into small organizing cluster with diminishing risk for severe hail while tending to propagate east-southeastward overnight. Despite stabilizing near surface lapse rates, though, unsaturated layers in the low/mid-troposphere may contribute to a period with at least some risk for locally strong to severe wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 09/20/2025 Read more