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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with at least isolated severe potential will be possible from the Mid Atlantic into Ohio and Missouri Valleys and central Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist over the Northeast as an upper low moves southeastward across Quebec. To the south, and upper high will be centered over the Gulf Coast states, with an enhanced belt of midlevel westerlies across the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will push southeastward across New England and toward the Mid Atlantic by late afternoon, with the western extension of this same boundary stalling into the Mid MO Valley. A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the main front, aiding episodes of strong storms from southern New England/Mid Atlantic Coast area, the OH Valley, and from SD into NE. ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are likely in association with the cold front beginning relatively early in the day. The air mass will be very moist, and heating will result in up to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE prior to the front moving offshore late in the day. Forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates aloft, but strong gusts may occur with fast moving clusters of storms as far south as NJ. ...Central to northern Plains... A surface trough will deepen from eastern MT into western SD/NE/KS, with strong heating. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the Dakotas and NE, with locally strong instability developing within a narrow uncapped zone. A few storms capable of large hail and localized wind damage may occur from late afternoon into early evening. Storm motions should remain relatively slow and severe threat localized as shear will remain marginal this far south. A small Slight Risk could be needed in later outlooks as precision increases. ...OH Valley... Early day storms near/north of the elongated front may linger across parts of IL/IN/OH, with a diurnal uptick as heating occurs from near St. Louis eastward across KY and into western VA. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest westerlies aloft suggest only localized severe potential within the broader thunderstorm area, with a few damaging downbursts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with at least isolated severe potential will be possible from the Mid Atlantic into Ohio and Missouri Valleys and central Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist over the Northeast as an upper low moves southeastward across Quebec. To the south, and upper high will be centered over the Gulf Coast states, with an enhanced belt of midlevel westerlies across the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will push southeastward across New England and toward the Mid Atlantic by late afternoon, with the western extension of this same boundary stalling into the Mid MO Valley. A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the main front, aiding episodes of strong storms from southern New England/Mid Atlantic Coast area, the OH Valley, and from SD into NE. ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are likely in association with the cold front beginning relatively early in the day. The air mass will be very moist, and heating will result in up to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE prior to the front moving offshore late in the day. Forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates aloft, but strong gusts may occur with fast moving clusters of storms as far south as NJ. ...Central to northern Plains... A surface trough will deepen from eastern MT into western SD/NE/KS, with strong heating. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the Dakotas and NE, with locally strong instability developing within a narrow uncapped zone. A few storms capable of large hail and localized wind damage may occur from late afternoon into early evening. Storm motions should remain relatively slow and severe threat localized as shear will remain marginal this far south. A small Slight Risk could be needed in later outlooks as precision increases. ...OH Valley... Early day storms near/north of the elongated front may linger across parts of IL/IN/OH, with a diurnal uptick as heating occurs from near St. Louis eastward across KY and into western VA. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest westerlies aloft suggest only localized severe potential within the broader thunderstorm area, with a few damaging downbursts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with at least isolated severe potential will be possible from the Mid Atlantic into Ohio and Missouri Valleys and central Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist over the Northeast as an upper low moves southeastward across Quebec. To the south, and upper high will be centered over the Gulf Coast states, with an enhanced belt of midlevel westerlies across the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will push southeastward across New England and toward the Mid Atlantic by late afternoon, with the western extension of this same boundary stalling into the Mid MO Valley. A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the main front, aiding episodes of strong storms from southern New England/Mid Atlantic Coast area, the OH Valley, and from SD into NE. ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are likely in association with the cold front beginning relatively early in the day. The air mass will be very moist, and heating will result in up to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE prior to the front moving offshore late in the day. Forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates aloft, but strong gusts may occur with fast moving clusters of storms as far south as NJ. ...Central to northern Plains... A surface trough will deepen from eastern MT into western SD/NE/KS, with strong heating. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the Dakotas and NE, with locally strong instability developing within a narrow uncapped zone. A few storms capable of large hail and localized wind damage may occur from late afternoon into early evening. Storm motions should remain relatively slow and severe threat localized as shear will remain marginal this far south. A small Slight Risk could be needed in later outlooks as precision increases. ...OH Valley... Early day storms near/north of the elongated front may linger across parts of IL/IN/OH, with a diurnal uptick as heating occurs from near St. Louis eastward across KY and into western VA. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest westerlies aloft suggest only localized severe potential within the broader thunderstorm area, with a few damaging downbursts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with at least isolated severe potential will be possible from the Mid Atlantic into Ohio and Missouri Valleys and central Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist over the Northeast as an upper low moves southeastward across Quebec. To the south, and upper high will be centered over the Gulf Coast states, with an enhanced belt of midlevel westerlies across the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will push southeastward across New England and toward the Mid Atlantic by late afternoon, with the western extension of this same boundary stalling into the Mid MO Valley. A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the main front, aiding episodes of strong storms from southern New England/Mid Atlantic Coast area, the OH Valley, and from SD into NE. ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are likely in association with the cold front beginning relatively early in the day. The air mass will be very moist, and heating will result in up to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE prior to the front moving offshore late in the day. Forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates aloft, but strong gusts may occur with fast moving clusters of storms as far south as NJ. ...Central to northern Plains... A surface trough will deepen from eastern MT into western SD/NE/KS, with strong heating. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the Dakotas and NE, with locally strong instability developing within a narrow uncapped zone. A few storms capable of large hail and localized wind damage may occur from late afternoon into early evening. Storm motions should remain relatively slow and severe threat localized as shear will remain marginal this far south. A small Slight Risk could be needed in later outlooks as precision increases. ...OH Valley... Early day storms near/north of the elongated front may linger across parts of IL/IN/OH, with a diurnal uptick as heating occurs from near St. Louis eastward across KY and into western VA. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest westerlies aloft suggest only localized severe potential within the broader thunderstorm area, with a few damaging downbursts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms with at least isolated severe potential will be possible from the Mid Atlantic into Ohio and Missouri Valleys and central Plains Sunday into Sunday night. ...Synopsis... A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will exist over the Northeast as an upper low moves southeastward across Quebec. To the south, and upper high will be centered over the Gulf Coast states, with an enhanced belt of midlevel westerlies across the Midwest. At the surface, a cold front will push southeastward across New England and toward the Mid Atlantic by late afternoon, with the western extension of this same boundary stalling into the Mid MO Valley. A very moist air mass will exist ahead of the main front, aiding episodes of strong storms from southern New England/Mid Atlantic Coast area, the OH Valley, and from SD into NE. ...Mid Atlantic/Northeast... Scattered thunderstorms are likely in association with the cold front beginning relatively early in the day. The air mass will be very moist, and heating will result in up to 1500 J/kg MUCAPE prior to the front moving offshore late in the day. Forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates aloft, but strong gusts may occur with fast moving clusters of storms as far south as NJ. ...Central to northern Plains... A surface trough will deepen from eastern MT into western SD/NE/KS, with strong heating. Southeast surface winds will maintain moisture into the Dakotas and NE, with locally strong instability developing within a narrow uncapped zone. A few storms capable of large hail and localized wind damage may occur from late afternoon into early evening. Storm motions should remain relatively slow and severe threat localized as shear will remain marginal this far south. A small Slight Risk could be needed in later outlooks as precision increases. ...OH Valley... Early day storms near/north of the elongated front may linger across parts of IL/IN/OH, with a diurnal uptick as heating occurs from near St. Louis eastward across KY and into western VA. Poor lapse rates aloft and modest westerlies aloft suggest only localized severe potential within the broader thunderstorm area, with a few damaging downbursts possible. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

MD 1709 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TO WESTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1709 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Missouri to western Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181720Z - 181915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing from southeast Missouri to western Kentucky will pose a risk of damaging winds through late afternoon, but watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are in the early stages of development to the west of I-55 in central/southeast MO within a diffuse stationary frontal zone. Through the afternoon, increasing southerly low-level winds will bolster low-level isentropic ascent, which in conjunction with peak heating, will promote additional thunderstorm development along the frontal zone into western KY. Weak winds within the lowest 9 km will limit overall storm organization/longevity and promote mainly multicell clusters. As such, the potential for a robust, prolonged severe threat is limited. However, MLCAPE values approaching 3500 J/kg by late afternoon, combined with equilibrium levels near 14-15 km, PWAT values near 2 inches, and theta-e deficits near 25 K will promote strong water-loaded downdrafts capable of strong to severe downburst winds. The potential for sporadic damaging gusts should increase through late afternoon as thunderstorm coverage increases. ..Moore/Smith.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 38189121 37999061 37749010 37518948 37548871 37528830 37438788 37248766 36828764 36518781 36358815 36308881 36258948 36379014 36449090 36519130 36639159 36819182 37339219 37619229 37809231 38159213 38289165 38189121 Read more

MD 1708 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN TENNESSEE INTO CENTRAL EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 1708 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...Northern Tennessee into central eastern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181708Z - 181915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase through late afternoon across north-central Tennessee into central eastern Kentucky, but weak wind shear should limit overall longevity/intensity of storms. However, a few instances of damaging wind appear possible. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is well underway across central KY and north-central TN along and south of a diffuse stationary frontal zone. Continued daytime heating and weak ascent across the region will promote an increase in thunderstorm coverage through late afternoon. Despite very moist/buoyant conditions (MLCAPE is already approaching 3000 J/kg), modest mid-level winds will limit the overall kinematic environment and the potential for organized convection and a more robust severe threat. Because of this, watch issuance is not expected; however, theta-e deficits on the order of 25-30 K along with PWAT values around 1.8 to 2.0 inches should promote strong water-loaded downdrafts and the potential for damaging/severe downburst winds with the deeper convective cores. The potential for sporadic damaging winds should increase in tandem with the coverage of disorganized multicells. ..Moore/Smith.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...PAH... LAT...LON 38068373 37918319 37548293 37048288 36638304 36288345 36008404 35758497 35758578 35768635 35848685 36168723 36518749 36928755 37168748 37428723 37648640 38018448 38068373 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z Tomorrow's (Day 2/Saturday) fire weather forecast remains largely on-track, with only modest areal adjustments needed to the outlook areas based on the latest ensemble forecast guidance. The primary change with this update was to expand the Elevated area across the northern Great Basin a bit farther north/northeast into southwest Montana and also westward into portions of northern California and southeast Oregon. Locally critical conditions are most likely across the wind-prone portions of the Snake River Plain and Upper Snake River Valley in Idaho, where localized areas of sustained surface winds exceeding 20 mph and RH values less than 15% are possible for several hours during the afternoon/evening. Please see the discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 07/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude upper level trough will pivot through the Northwest on Saturday. In the lee of the northern Rockies, a surface low will deepen in central Montana. Mid-level moisture will be pushed slightly southward and eastward by the sagging upper trough in the Northwest. Additional thunderstorms are possible in the parts of the central/eastern Great Basin. However, PWAT values and slower storm motions do not suggest a significant threat for new ignitions. ...Columbia Basin and northern Nevada/southern Idaho... Elevated fire weather conditions are again expected in the Columbia Basin. With the core of the mid-level jet primarily being east of the region by the afternoon, the overall setup should favor slightly less strong wind coverage. Winds of 15-20 mph are still possible. RH may be a touch higher than on Friday with around 20% being probable during the afternoon. With the trough sagging southward and the surface low deepening, a zone of 15-20 mph (locally higher) winds is possible in parts of the northern Great Basin. RH could fall as low as 10-15% by the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1707 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR 2NORTH CAROLINA INTO VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Areas affected...2North Carolina into Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 181705Z - 181900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms moving off the southern Appalachians will intensify as they move into North Carolina and Virginia and may produce several swaths of damaging wind. Watch issuance is expected in the coming hours to address this threat. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows increasing depth and coverage of convective towers with occasional lightning flashes within a broad cumulus field within the southern Appalachians likely driven by a combination of increasing orographic ascent and weak lift ahead of a decaying MCV. Based on recent RAP mesoanalysis, modified forecast soundings, and areas of lingering low/mid-level stratus, some residual inhibition remains across the region, but this should quickly erode through 19 UTC as temperatures climb into the upper 80s/low 90s. Thunderstorm development is expected around this time within/in proximity to the higher terrain as MLCIN is removed and glancing ascent ahead of a mid-level trough over the Great Lakes overspreads the region. Moderate westerly mid-level flow will support storm propagation into VA/NC. The combination of warm surface temperatures and seasonably moist conditions downstream (dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s) will support MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg by peak heating. Consequently, thunderstorm should intensify as they move into this environment. GOES-derived wind estimates show 30-35 knot flow between 6-7 km AGL across northern VA, which appears to be slightly stronger than anticipated by recent forecast guidance and should be adequate for organized clusters, and perhaps a few organized discrete cells, given weak low-level winds. While a few instances of large hail are possible (mainly over central VA where mid-level flow is slightly stronger), the predominant threat should be damaging/severe winds given steepening near-surface lapse rates, high PWAT values, and 20-25 K theta-e deficits, which will all favor strong to severe downbursts. Damaging wind swaths should become more probable through mid/late afternoon as organized clusters begin to materialize. Watch issuance is expected in the coming hours to address this concern. ..Moore/Smith.. 07/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36378194 38437897 38587840 38577789 38437748 38157723 37837699 37567687 37317681 36907684 36317719 35867766 35707824 35607868 35587939 35648109 35728156 35898189 36068204 36188208 36378194 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM IOWA EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO...AND OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible over parts of the Midwest, and over the central High Plains. Areas of damaging winds and hail will be possible. ...Midwest... A conditional and complex severe risk is forecast, beginning Saturday morning over eastern IA and vicinity. Here, models indicate an MCS will likely be ongoing, but whether this system persists across IL and IN during day is uncertain. Most likely, this system will weaken, which will allow daytime destabilization across the area. However, redevelopment is also uncertain during the day across southern WI/IL/IN, and may depend on mesoscale boundaries from earlier storms. In any event, a moist and unstable air mass will develop, and conditionally favor severe storms. This will exist beneath moderate west to northwest flow aloft, and deep-layer shear may even favor supercells. Any supercells that can develop during the afternoon or early evening will be capable of large hail, perhaps a tornado, and damaging gusts. Additional storms are likely overnight in the warm advection regime from southern IA/northern MO into western IL. Farther east and late, west/southwest flow around 850 mb will aid lift and destabilization with clusters of storms possible from OH into western PA and NY. Scattered damaging gusts appear to be the main concern. ...Central High Plains... High pressure over the northern Plains will maintain moist easterly surface winds near a stalled front near the KS/NE border, with moderate instability developing as far west as southeast WY and northeast CO. Afternoon storms will likely form in this uncapped air mass over the High Plains, with a few supercells producing large hail expected. Capping will be a concern farther east, but eventual outflow production may allow an MCS to develop with damaging winds spreading into parts of northwest KS and southwest NE. ..Jewell.. 07/18/2025 Read more