Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z A positive-tilt mid/upper-level trough, with enhanced mid-level flow along it's base, is forecast to remain across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Monday. Thereafter, the trough is forecast to eject across the northern Rockies and into Canada through midweek. Meanwhile, a portion of the trough is forecast to become cutoff off the California coast Day 5/Wednesday through perhaps Day 7/Friday before ejecting northeastward, with a large-scale trough returning across the Western United States next weekend. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Wind/RH... Mid-level winds are forecast to increase over the northern Great Basin Day 3/Monday as the aforementioned trough impinges on the area. A rather broad area of elevated fire weather conditions are likely, with critical fire weather conditions most likely across portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, along the Nevada, Oregon, and Idaho border, and across western/northwestern Nevada and adjacent portions of California where wind speeds are forecast to be strongest. Though, at this time, critical fire weather conditions appear too brief/spotty to introduce greater probabilities. Dry and breezy conditions are forecast to continue Day 4/Tuesday across much of the Great Basin. Though, relaxing mid-level winds and reduced surface pressure gradients should limit widespread fire weather concerns. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday and Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday : Dry Thunderstorms... Dry thunderstorms are possible Day 3/Monday into Day 4/Tuesday across portions of the northern Great Basin, Northwest, and northern Rockies, as increasing moisture associated with the aforementioned trough overspreads the area. While forecast guidance suggests precipitable water values may be relatively high (0.8 - 1+ inch), somewhat fast-moving storm motions and critically receptive fuels suggest a mix of wet/dry modes. At this time, uncertainty remains too large to introduce probabilities for dry thunderstorms. Dry thunderstorm potential may return across the western United States by Day 6/Thursday as the aforementioned cutoff low begins to move onshore. Though, at this time, forecast guidance differs on the timing/evolution of the low, which reduces confidence in timing and coverage of dry thunderstorms. ..Elliott.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1721 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS...AND FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 1721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western/central Nebraska...northwest Kansas...and far northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 191925Z - 192130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring the area for increasing severe-storm potential this afternoon. Large hail, severe wind gusts, and a couple tornadoes will all be possible. A watch will likely be issued for parts of the area. DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery and radar data show increasingly agitated boundary-layer cumulus and first signs of convective initiation within a zone of differential heating along a composite outflow-surface front in west-central NE. While weak large-scale forcing for ascent casts uncertainty on timing/evolution of convection this afternoon, continued heating amid rich boundary-layer moisture (lower 70s dewpoints) should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms along the outflow boundary and possibly farther west over the High Plains. A long/mostly straight hodograph (around 50-60 kt of effective shear) and strongly unstable air mass should initially support splitting supercells with a risk of large to very large hail and severe gusts. However, a strengthening low-level jet and increasing SRH will also favor an increasing tornado risk into this evening. A watch will likely be needed for parts of the area this afternoon. ..Weinman/Smith.. 07/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU... LAT...LON 39610082 39830171 40310221 41250250 42210223 42670177 42800112 42790013 42629943 42119899 41389893 40069926 39649981 39610082 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0526 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 526 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1722 ..MOORE..07/19/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...RAH...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 526 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC037-192140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ST. MARYS NCC015-029-041-053-063-065-069-073-077-083-091-127-131-135-139- 143-145-181-183-185-192140- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERTIE CAMDEN CHOWAN CURRITUCK DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GATES GRANVILLE HALIFAX HERTFORD NASH NORTHAMPTON ORANGE PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PERSON VANCE WAKE WARREN VAC003-007-011-025-029-033-036-037-041-047-049-053-057-065-073- Read more

WW 0527 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0527 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more