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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central Plains this evening. ...South-central Plains... A few strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening from the TX Panhandle into western/northern OK. Moderate buoyancy remains in place across areas that have not been convectively overturned, while deep-layer shear is marginally sufficient for briefly organized storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail. Enhanced SRH is still in place near a remnant outflow across northeast OK (as noted on the KINX VWP), and there still a window of opportunity for a supercell or two within this regime, which could pose a threat of a brief tornado and large hail. Some clustering is possible later this evening across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, and also across parts of the Ozarks, associated with separate branches of a modest nocturnal low-level jet. Some severe threat could persist into late evening, before convection becomes increasingly elevated overnight. ...Mid MS Valley into lower MI... A storm cluster across western lower MI has recently produced strong gusts, with other isolated strong storms noted from western IN into IL. Isolated strong storms may persist into late evening across this region within a modestly unstable environment, though a gradual weakening trend is expected with time. ...Parts of KS overnight... Guidance generally suggests that convection will increase overnight and spread eastward from northwest into central KS. MUCAPE near/above 1000 J/kg could support a few strong storms, but generally weak effective shear and modest midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit the organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central Plains this evening. ...South-central Plains... A few strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening from the TX Panhandle into western/northern OK. Moderate buoyancy remains in place across areas that have not been convectively overturned, while deep-layer shear is marginally sufficient for briefly organized storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail. Enhanced SRH is still in place near a remnant outflow across northeast OK (as noted on the KINX VWP), and there still a window of opportunity for a supercell or two within this regime, which could pose a threat of a brief tornado and large hail. Some clustering is possible later this evening across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, and also across parts of the Ozarks, associated with separate branches of a modest nocturnal low-level jet. Some severe threat could persist into late evening, before convection becomes increasingly elevated overnight. ...Mid MS Valley into lower MI... A storm cluster across western lower MI has recently produced strong gusts, with other isolated strong storms noted from western IN into IL. Isolated strong storms may persist into late evening across this region within a modestly unstable environment, though a gradual weakening trend is expected with time. ...Parts of KS overnight... Guidance generally suggests that convection will increase overnight and spread eastward from northwest into central KS. MUCAPE near/above 1000 J/kg could support a few strong storms, but generally weak effective shear and modest midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit the organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 09/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of the south-central Plains this evening. ...South-central Plains... A few strong to locally severe storms are ongoing this evening from the TX Panhandle into western/northern OK. Moderate buoyancy remains in place across areas that have not been convectively overturned, while deep-layer shear is marginally sufficient for briefly organized storms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail. Enhanced SRH is still in place near a remnant outflow across northeast OK (as noted on the KINX VWP), and there still a window of opportunity for a supercell or two within this regime, which could pose a threat of a brief tornado and large hail. Some clustering is possible later this evening across the eastern TX Panhandle into western OK, and also across parts of the Ozarks, associated with separate branches of a modest nocturnal low-level jet. Some severe threat could persist into late evening, before convection becomes increasingly elevated overnight. ...Mid MS Valley into lower MI... A storm cluster across western lower MI has recently produced strong gusts, with other isolated strong storms noted from western IN into IL. Isolated strong storms may persist into late evening across this region within a modestly unstable environment, though a gradual weakening trend is expected with time. ...Parts of KS overnight... Guidance generally suggests that convection will increase overnight and spread eastward from northwest into central KS. MUCAPE near/above 1000 J/kg could support a few strong storms, but generally weak effective shear and modest midlevel lapse rates are expected to limit the organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 09/21/2025 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 202324
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 20 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave over the eastern Atlantic is producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity well west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Although development is unlikely during the next
couple of days, environmental conditions should gradually become
more favorable for slow development of this disturbance by the
middle to latter part of next week while it moves west-northwestward
to northwestward across the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 202317
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 20 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico (EP97):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico continues to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected
to form within the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible along portions of the coast of southern and southwestern
Mexico through Monday. For additional information, including gale
warnings, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Bucci

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 20 22:34:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 20 22:34:01 UTC 2025.

MD 2106 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2106 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 201939Z - 202215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong storms capable of marginally severe hail or wind gusts are expected to form by 21-22Z, beginning over the eastern Panhandles, and perhaps developing over southwest Oklahoma as well. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a stationary front over the eastern OK Panhandle and extending eastward just south of the KS border. This boundary arcs southeastward across eastern OK and into central AR as a modifying outflow boundary. Temperatures continue to rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s F over much of central/western OK and northwest TX including the Panhandles, as dewpoints mix into the upper 50s/lower 60s F. Visible satellite imagery shows increasing cumulus fields along the front over the eastern OK Panhandle, and extending southwestward across parts of the central and southern TX Panhandle. Modest MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg have developed, with forecast soundings depicting midlevel lapse rates on the order of 6.5 C/km. Large-scale forcing is generally weak, and storms will rely on heating/steep low-level lapse rates and surface convergence along the boundaries. Scattered cells are likely to form after 20Z over western areas, moving slowly east/southeast and producing marginal hail and wind gusts. A cool pocket does exist over western OK, and the associated effects of differential heating could yield additional initiation there. ..Jewell/Smith.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36329923 36029925 35589904 35239873 35129856 34599838 34389854 34079927 34280051 34570114 34910153 35070170 35560188 35950187 36330172 36800105 37120048 37190000 37019946 36799924 36329923 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough and associated cold front across the Northern Rockies on Day 3/Monday will slide southeastward into the Central Plains by Day 5/Wednesday while a ridge builds across the interior West. Surface high pressure across the Northern and Central Rockies along with development of a thermal trough along the West Coast will support an east to northeast flow regime from northern CA to coastal OR and WA on Day 4/Tuesday, possibly into Day 5/Wednesday. The dry post-frontal air mass will support critically low daytime relative humidity, including poor overnight RH recoveries, across the Great Basin and northern CA on Day 4/Tuesday. However, relatively low expected wind speeds and marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Expected wetting rainfall along and west of the Cascade Range Sunday will similarly temporarily subdue fire weather concerns across this area. Southwest flow ahead of a mid-level low west of CA will usher in deeper sub-tropical moisture and rainfall into the southern part of the state Tuesday, reaching into the Sierra Nevada by Day 5/Wednesday bringing the potential for some thunderstorm development but also wetting rains. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... The troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. will promote widespread wetting rainfall and more seasonable temperatures across portions of the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Appalachia through late next week. This should moderate fuel conditions and reduce overall fire weather concerns. The mid-level low and sub-tropical moisture impacting CA midweek is expected to slowly diffuse as it propagates into the Great Basin late next week. This should support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the Great Basin and Southwest but marginally dry fuels should limit new ignition potential. ..Williams.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough and associated cold front across the Northern Rockies on Day 3/Monday will slide southeastward into the Central Plains by Day 5/Wednesday while a ridge builds across the interior West. Surface high pressure across the Northern and Central Rockies along with development of a thermal trough along the West Coast will support an east to northeast flow regime from northern CA to coastal OR and WA on Day 4/Tuesday, possibly into Day 5/Wednesday. The dry post-frontal air mass will support critically low daytime relative humidity, including poor overnight RH recoveries, across the Great Basin and northern CA on Day 4/Tuesday. However, relatively low expected wind speeds and marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Expected wetting rainfall along and west of the Cascade Range Sunday will similarly temporarily subdue fire weather concerns across this area. Southwest flow ahead of a mid-level low west of CA will usher in deeper sub-tropical moisture and rainfall into the southern part of the state Tuesday, reaching into the Sierra Nevada by Day 5/Wednesday bringing the potential for some thunderstorm development but also wetting rains. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... The troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. will promote widespread wetting rainfall and more seasonable temperatures across portions of the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Appalachia through late next week. This should moderate fuel conditions and reduce overall fire weather concerns. The mid-level low and sub-tropical moisture impacting CA midweek is expected to slowly diffuse as it propagates into the Great Basin late next week. This should support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the Great Basin and Southwest but marginally dry fuels should limit new ignition potential. ..Williams.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough and associated cold front across the Northern Rockies on Day 3/Monday will slide southeastward into the Central Plains by Day 5/Wednesday while a ridge builds across the interior West. Surface high pressure across the Northern and Central Rockies along with development of a thermal trough along the West Coast will support an east to northeast flow regime from northern CA to coastal OR and WA on Day 4/Tuesday, possibly into Day 5/Wednesday. The dry post-frontal air mass will support critically low daytime relative humidity, including poor overnight RH recoveries, across the Great Basin and northern CA on Day 4/Tuesday. However, relatively low expected wind speeds and marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Expected wetting rainfall along and west of the Cascade Range Sunday will similarly temporarily subdue fire weather concerns across this area. Southwest flow ahead of a mid-level low west of CA will usher in deeper sub-tropical moisture and rainfall into the southern part of the state Tuesday, reaching into the Sierra Nevada by Day 5/Wednesday bringing the potential for some thunderstorm development but also wetting rains. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... The troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. will promote widespread wetting rainfall and more seasonable temperatures across portions of the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Appalachia through late next week. This should moderate fuel conditions and reduce overall fire weather concerns. The mid-level low and sub-tropical moisture impacting CA midweek is expected to slowly diffuse as it propagates into the Great Basin late next week. This should support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the Great Basin and Southwest but marginally dry fuels should limit new ignition potential. ..Williams.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough and associated cold front across the Northern Rockies on Day 3/Monday will slide southeastward into the Central Plains by Day 5/Wednesday while a ridge builds across the interior West. Surface high pressure across the Northern and Central Rockies along with development of a thermal trough along the West Coast will support an east to northeast flow regime from northern CA to coastal OR and WA on Day 4/Tuesday, possibly into Day 5/Wednesday. The dry post-frontal air mass will support critically low daytime relative humidity, including poor overnight RH recoveries, across the Great Basin and northern CA on Day 4/Tuesday. However, relatively low expected wind speeds and marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Expected wetting rainfall along and west of the Cascade Range Sunday will similarly temporarily subdue fire weather concerns across this area. Southwest flow ahead of a mid-level low west of CA will usher in deeper sub-tropical moisture and rainfall into the southern part of the state Tuesday, reaching into the Sierra Nevada by Day 5/Wednesday bringing the potential for some thunderstorm development but also wetting rains. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... The troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. will promote widespread wetting rainfall and more seasonable temperatures across portions of the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Appalachia through late next week. This should moderate fuel conditions and reduce overall fire weather concerns. The mid-level low and sub-tropical moisture impacting CA midweek is expected to slowly diffuse as it propagates into the Great Basin late next week. This should support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the Great Basin and Southwest but marginally dry fuels should limit new ignition potential. ..Williams.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough and associated cold front across the Northern Rockies on Day 3/Monday will slide southeastward into the Central Plains by Day 5/Wednesday while a ridge builds across the interior West. Surface high pressure across the Northern and Central Rockies along with development of a thermal trough along the West Coast will support an east to northeast flow regime from northern CA to coastal OR and WA on Day 4/Tuesday, possibly into Day 5/Wednesday. The dry post-frontal air mass will support critically low daytime relative humidity, including poor overnight RH recoveries, across the Great Basin and northern CA on Day 4/Tuesday. However, relatively low expected wind speeds and marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Expected wetting rainfall along and west of the Cascade Range Sunday will similarly temporarily subdue fire weather concerns across this area. Southwest flow ahead of a mid-level low west of CA will usher in deeper sub-tropical moisture and rainfall into the southern part of the state Tuesday, reaching into the Sierra Nevada by Day 5/Wednesday bringing the potential for some thunderstorm development but also wetting rains. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... The troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. will promote widespread wetting rainfall and more seasonable temperatures across portions of the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Appalachia through late next week. This should moderate fuel conditions and reduce overall fire weather concerns. The mid-level low and sub-tropical moisture impacting CA midweek is expected to slowly diffuse as it propagates into the Great Basin late next week. This should support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the Great Basin and Southwest but marginally dry fuels should limit new ignition potential. ..Williams.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough and associated cold front across the Northern Rockies on Day 3/Monday will slide southeastward into the Central Plains by Day 5/Wednesday while a ridge builds across the interior West. Surface high pressure across the Northern and Central Rockies along with development of a thermal trough along the West Coast will support an east to northeast flow regime from northern CA to coastal OR and WA on Day 4/Tuesday, possibly into Day 5/Wednesday. The dry post-frontal air mass will support critically low daytime relative humidity, including poor overnight RH recoveries, across the Great Basin and northern CA on Day 4/Tuesday. However, relatively low expected wind speeds and marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Expected wetting rainfall along and west of the Cascade Range Sunday will similarly temporarily subdue fire weather concerns across this area. Southwest flow ahead of a mid-level low west of CA will usher in deeper sub-tropical moisture and rainfall into the southern part of the state Tuesday, reaching into the Sierra Nevada by Day 5/Wednesday bringing the potential for some thunderstorm development but also wetting rains. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... The troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. will promote widespread wetting rainfall and more seasonable temperatures across portions of the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Appalachia through late next week. This should moderate fuel conditions and reduce overall fire weather concerns. The mid-level low and sub-tropical moisture impacting CA midweek is expected to slowly diffuse as it propagates into the Great Basin late next week. This should support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the Great Basin and Southwest but marginally dry fuels should limit new ignition potential. ..Williams.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough and associated cold front across the Northern Rockies on Day 3/Monday will slide southeastward into the Central Plains by Day 5/Wednesday while a ridge builds across the interior West. Surface high pressure across the Northern and Central Rockies along with development of a thermal trough along the West Coast will support an east to northeast flow regime from northern CA to coastal OR and WA on Day 4/Tuesday, possibly into Day 5/Wednesday. The dry post-frontal air mass will support critically low daytime relative humidity, including poor overnight RH recoveries, across the Great Basin and northern CA on Day 4/Tuesday. However, relatively low expected wind speeds and marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Expected wetting rainfall along and west of the Cascade Range Sunday will similarly temporarily subdue fire weather concerns across this area. Southwest flow ahead of a mid-level low west of CA will usher in deeper sub-tropical moisture and rainfall into the southern part of the state Tuesday, reaching into the Sierra Nevada by Day 5/Wednesday bringing the potential for some thunderstorm development but also wetting rains. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... The troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. will promote widespread wetting rainfall and more seasonable temperatures across portions of the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Appalachia through late next week. This should moderate fuel conditions and reduce overall fire weather concerns. The mid-level low and sub-tropical moisture impacting CA midweek is expected to slowly diffuse as it propagates into the Great Basin late next week. This should support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the Great Basin and Southwest but marginally dry fuels should limit new ignition potential. ..Williams.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough and associated cold front across the Northern Rockies on Day 3/Monday will slide southeastward into the Central Plains by Day 5/Wednesday while a ridge builds across the interior West. Surface high pressure across the Northern and Central Rockies along with development of a thermal trough along the West Coast will support an east to northeast flow regime from northern CA to coastal OR and WA on Day 4/Tuesday, possibly into Day 5/Wednesday. The dry post-frontal air mass will support critically low daytime relative humidity, including poor overnight RH recoveries, across the Great Basin and northern CA on Day 4/Tuesday. However, relatively low expected wind speeds and marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Expected wetting rainfall along and west of the Cascade Range Sunday will similarly temporarily subdue fire weather concerns across this area. Southwest flow ahead of a mid-level low west of CA will usher in deeper sub-tropical moisture and rainfall into the southern part of the state Tuesday, reaching into the Sierra Nevada by Day 5/Wednesday bringing the potential for some thunderstorm development but also wetting rains. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... The troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. will promote widespread wetting rainfall and more seasonable temperatures across portions of the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Appalachia through late next week. This should moderate fuel conditions and reduce overall fire weather concerns. The mid-level low and sub-tropical moisture impacting CA midweek is expected to slowly diffuse as it propagates into the Great Basin late next week. This should support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the Great Basin and Southwest but marginally dry fuels should limit new ignition potential. ..Williams.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0421 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z ...Days 3-5/Monday-Wednesday... A mid-level trough and associated cold front across the Northern Rockies on Day 3/Monday will slide southeastward into the Central Plains by Day 5/Wednesday while a ridge builds across the interior West. Surface high pressure across the Northern and Central Rockies along with development of a thermal trough along the West Coast will support an east to northeast flow regime from northern CA to coastal OR and WA on Day 4/Tuesday, possibly into Day 5/Wednesday. The dry post-frontal air mass will support critically low daytime relative humidity, including poor overnight RH recoveries, across the Great Basin and northern CA on Day 4/Tuesday. However, relatively low expected wind speeds and marginal fuel dryness precludes introduction of critical probabilities at this time. Expected wetting rainfall along and west of the Cascade Range Sunday will similarly temporarily subdue fire weather concerns across this area. Southwest flow ahead of a mid-level low west of CA will usher in deeper sub-tropical moisture and rainfall into the southern part of the state Tuesday, reaching into the Sierra Nevada by Day 5/Wednesday bringing the potential for some thunderstorm development but also wetting rains. ...Days 6-8/Thursday-Saturday... The troughing pattern across the eastern U.S. will promote widespread wetting rainfall and more seasonable temperatures across portions of the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley and Appalachia through late next week. This should moderate fuel conditions and reduce overall fire weather concerns. The mid-level low and sub-tropical moisture impacting CA midweek is expected to slowly diffuse as it propagates into the Great Basin late next week. This should support a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms across the higher terrain of the Great Basin and Southwest but marginally dry fuels should limit new ignition potential. ..Williams.. 09/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 20 Sep 2025 20:38:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 20 Sep 2025 21:21:34 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 20 2025 000 FONT12 KNHC 202033 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072025 2100 UTC SAT SEP 20 2025 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PONTA DELGADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BERMUDA 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 20 2025 000 WTNT42 KNHC 202033 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sat Sep 20 2025 At about the time of the last advisory, an small eye-like feature appeared in Gabrielle's central dense overcast. An NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft then confirmed the presence of a 6 n mi wide eye with a well-defined inner wind core. After that, a combination of flight-level and dropsonde data from both NOAA and AF Reserve aircraft showed maximum winds near 55 kt with a central pressure near 996 mb. One note is that the aircraft flight-level wind data suggests an outer wind maximum is forming around the small eye, which coincides with convective bands seen in NOAA aircraft radar data. The aircraft found that the center of Gabrielle was about 30 n mi east of the previous forecast track, and using the revised position yields a 12-h motion of 325/9. Other than the center re-location, there is little change to the track forecast philosophy. During the next 48 h or so, Gabrielle is expected to recurve to the north and northeast between the subtropical ridge to the east and a mid-latitude trough over the southeastern United States and adjacent parts of the Atlantic. While the track guidance for this part of the forecast remains tightly clustered, the guidance has shifted to the east based on the initial position, and it is also showing a slower forward speed. So, the official forecast is also nudged to the east and slowed down. With this change, the reliable guidance models and the official forecast continue to keep Gabrielle well to the east of Bermuda during recurvature. After recurvature, Gabrielle should move east-northeastward to eastward as it becomes embedded in zonal westerly flow. This part of the track guidance has again shifted south from the previous advisory and also shows a slower forward speed, with the new official forecast adjusted accordingly. Gabrielle is expected to be in a light-to-moderate shear environment for the next 48 h or so, and steady strengthening is expected during this time. After being less aggressive on the 06Z runs, the 12Z runs of the regional hurricane models have trended stronger. The new intensity forecast keeps a peak intensity of 90 kt, which is above the intensity consensus but below the regional models. After peak intensity, it again appears that Gabrielle's extratropical transition will not occur until after the end of the forecast period. So, the intensity forecast shows steady weakening due to increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast again has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. While the chances of impacts are decreasing, interests on Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since some wind and rainfall impacts are still possible. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are beginning to reach Bermuda and will build through the weekend. These swells are also expected to reach the coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, along with the coast of Atlantic Canada, late this weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 25.6N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 26.7N 60.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 28.4N 61.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 29.9N 61.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 31.6N 60.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 33.3N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 34.8N 55.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 36.6N 46.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 38.6N 33.8W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven