Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows an expansive upper ridge over much of the eastern CONUS, and upper troughing across the Great Basin vicinity. A northern-stream shortwave trough currently over SK is forecast to progress quickly eastward through MB and ON, leading to some dampening of the eastern CONUS ridge. Several convectively augmented vorticity maxima are also expected to move through the northern and central High Plains ahead of the more substantial shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin. This evolution will lead to some dampening of the northwestern periphery of this ridge as well. Like the upper pattern, the surface pattern is currently dominated by eastern CONUS ridging, with an ill-defined frontal zone between the warm and moist airmass under the ridge and a more continental airmass across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Recent surface analysis places a low over western KS with a stationary boundary extending northeastward from this low to another low over WI. A more progressive cold front extends northeastward from the WI low through central ON. The moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) south of this boundary will destabilize with daytime heating, and scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level convergence during the afternoon from the central Plains through the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm strength/organization and contributing to an outflow-dominant storm mode. Damaging gusts will be possible with any of the stronger line segments. Greater severe potential is expected across the northern and central High Plains (discussed below). ...Northern/Central High Plains... Post-frontal southeasterly upslope flow is anticipated across the region today, helping to offset diurnal mixing and keep dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s this afternoon. The increased low-level moisture and strong heating will foster airmass destabilization by the early afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorm expected. Initiation is expected over the higher terrain before then moving northeastward into the lower elevations. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support supercells initially capable of producing large to very large hail. A trend towards more outflow-dominant structures is anticipated with time, with one or more line segments capable of strong to severe gusts developing. This outflow-dominant character is forecast to limit the tornado threat, but a locally enhanced threat may exist from southeast WY into the southern NE Panhandle and far northeast CO where the best overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly surface winds is expected. ...Southern Rockies... Increasing low to mid-level moisture will support numerous to widespread thunderstorms across the southern Rockies today. Very shear will be weak, promoting a mostly disorganized multicellular mode. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows an expansive upper ridge over much of the eastern CONUS, and upper troughing across the Great Basin vicinity. A northern-stream shortwave trough currently over SK is forecast to progress quickly eastward through MB and ON, leading to some dampening of the eastern CONUS ridge. Several convectively augmented vorticity maxima are also expected to move through the northern and central High Plains ahead of the more substantial shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin. This evolution will lead to some dampening of the northwestern periphery of this ridge as well. Like the upper pattern, the surface pattern is currently dominated by eastern CONUS ridging, with an ill-defined frontal zone between the warm and moist airmass under the ridge and a more continental airmass across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Recent surface analysis places a low over western KS with a stationary boundary extending northeastward from this low to another low over WI. A more progressive cold front extends northeastward from the WI low through central ON. The moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) south of this boundary will destabilize with daytime heating, and scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level convergence during the afternoon from the central Plains through the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm strength/organization and contributing to an outflow-dominant storm mode. Damaging gusts will be possible with any of the stronger line segments. Greater severe potential is expected across the northern and central High Plains (discussed below). ...Northern/Central High Plains... Post-frontal southeasterly upslope flow is anticipated across the region today, helping to offset diurnal mixing and keep dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s this afternoon. The increased low-level moisture and strong heating will foster airmass destabilization by the early afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorm expected. Initiation is expected over the higher terrain before then moving northeastward into the lower elevations. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support supercells initially capable of producing large to very large hail. A trend towards more outflow-dominant structures is anticipated with time, with one or more line segments capable of strong to severe gusts developing. This outflow-dominant character is forecast to limit the tornado threat, but a locally enhanced threat may exist from southeast WY into the southern NE Panhandle and far northeast CO where the best overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly surface winds is expected. ...Southern Rockies... Increasing low to mid-level moisture will support numerous to widespread thunderstorms across the southern Rockies today. Very shear will be weak, promoting a mostly disorganized multicellular mode. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/24/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through Tuesday/D8, depicting a low-amplitude trough moving from the northwestern states on Friday/D4 across the northern tier of states and toward the Great Lakes by around Sunday/D6. This wave is then forecast to amplify across Ontario/Quebec through the end of the period, with cooler/more stable air pushing south with a cold front from the Midwest into the Northeast. Severe storms are currently forecast over parts of the Dakotas into northwest MN on Friday/D4 as the stronger flow aloft interacts with a moist and unstable air mass already in place. Damaging winds appear the most likely mode of severe, along with sporadic large hail as storms form during the afternoon within a surface trough, and beneath increasing winds aloft. While severe storms may also occur on Saturday/D5 over parts of the northern Plains or upper MS Valley, predictability is lower given expected storms the previous day and potential for long-lived convective systems. However, given such strong instability forecast on Saturday/D5, a risk area is likely to be issued in later outlook cycles over parts of the upper Midwest/MS Valley. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms within the moist and unstable air mass are forecast for the bulk of CONUS from the Plains eastward, though in a generally weak shear environment. Portions of those areas may see low/marginal probabilities as the events enter into the Day 3 outlook time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through Tuesday/D8, depicting a low-amplitude trough moving from the northwestern states on Friday/D4 across the northern tier of states and toward the Great Lakes by around Sunday/D6. This wave is then forecast to amplify across Ontario/Quebec through the end of the period, with cooler/more stable air pushing south with a cold front from the Midwest into the Northeast. Severe storms are currently forecast over parts of the Dakotas into northwest MN on Friday/D4 as the stronger flow aloft interacts with a moist and unstable air mass already in place. Damaging winds appear the most likely mode of severe, along with sporadic large hail as storms form during the afternoon within a surface trough, and beneath increasing winds aloft. While severe storms may also occur on Saturday/D5 over parts of the northern Plains or upper MS Valley, predictability is lower given expected storms the previous day and potential for long-lived convective systems. However, given such strong instability forecast on Saturday/D5, a risk area is likely to be issued in later outlook cycles over parts of the upper Midwest/MS Valley. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms within the moist and unstable air mass are forecast for the bulk of CONUS from the Plains eastward, though in a generally weak shear environment. Portions of those areas may see low/marginal probabilities as the events enter into the Day 3 outlook time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through Tuesday/D8, depicting a low-amplitude trough moving from the northwestern states on Friday/D4 across the northern tier of states and toward the Great Lakes by around Sunday/D6. This wave is then forecast to amplify across Ontario/Quebec through the end of the period, with cooler/more stable air pushing south with a cold front from the Midwest into the Northeast. Severe storms are currently forecast over parts of the Dakotas into northwest MN on Friday/D4 as the stronger flow aloft interacts with a moist and unstable air mass already in place. Damaging winds appear the most likely mode of severe, along with sporadic large hail as storms form during the afternoon within a surface trough, and beneath increasing winds aloft. While severe storms may also occur on Saturday/D5 over parts of the northern Plains or upper MS Valley, predictability is lower given expected storms the previous day and potential for long-lived convective systems. However, given such strong instability forecast on Saturday/D5, a risk area is likely to be issued in later outlook cycles over parts of the upper Midwest/MS Valley. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms within the moist and unstable air mass are forecast for the bulk of CONUS from the Plains eastward, though in a generally weak shear environment. Portions of those areas may see low/marginal probabilities as the events enter into the Day 3 outlook time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through Tuesday/D8, depicting a low-amplitude trough moving from the northwestern states on Friday/D4 across the northern tier of states and toward the Great Lakes by around Sunday/D6. This wave is then forecast to amplify across Ontario/Quebec through the end of the period, with cooler/more stable air pushing south with a cold front from the Midwest into the Northeast. Severe storms are currently forecast over parts of the Dakotas into northwest MN on Friday/D4 as the stronger flow aloft interacts with a moist and unstable air mass already in place. Damaging winds appear the most likely mode of severe, along with sporadic large hail as storms form during the afternoon within a surface trough, and beneath increasing winds aloft. While severe storms may also occur on Saturday/D5 over parts of the northern Plains or upper MS Valley, predictability is lower given expected storms the previous day and potential for long-lived convective systems. However, given such strong instability forecast on Saturday/D5, a risk area is likely to be issued in later outlook cycles over parts of the upper Midwest/MS Valley. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms within the moist and unstable air mass are forecast for the bulk of CONUS from the Plains eastward, though in a generally weak shear environment. Portions of those areas may see low/marginal probabilities as the events enter into the Day 3 outlook time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through Tuesday/D8, depicting a low-amplitude trough moving from the northwestern states on Friday/D4 across the northern tier of states and toward the Great Lakes by around Sunday/D6. This wave is then forecast to amplify across Ontario/Quebec through the end of the period, with cooler/more stable air pushing south with a cold front from the Midwest into the Northeast. Severe storms are currently forecast over parts of the Dakotas into northwest MN on Friday/D4 as the stronger flow aloft interacts with a moist and unstable air mass already in place. Damaging winds appear the most likely mode of severe, along with sporadic large hail as storms form during the afternoon within a surface trough, and beneath increasing winds aloft. While severe storms may also occur on Saturday/D5 over parts of the northern Plains or upper MS Valley, predictability is lower given expected storms the previous day and potential for long-lived convective systems. However, given such strong instability forecast on Saturday/D5, a risk area is likely to be issued in later outlook cycles over parts of the upper Midwest/MS Valley. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms within the moist and unstable air mass are forecast for the bulk of CONUS from the Plains eastward, though in a generally weak shear environment. Portions of those areas may see low/marginal probabilities as the events enter into the Day 3 outlook time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement with the overall pattern through Tuesday/D8, depicting a low-amplitude trough moving from the northwestern states on Friday/D4 across the northern tier of states and toward the Great Lakes by around Sunday/D6. This wave is then forecast to amplify across Ontario/Quebec through the end of the period, with cooler/more stable air pushing south with a cold front from the Midwest into the Northeast. Severe storms are currently forecast over parts of the Dakotas into northwest MN on Friday/D4 as the stronger flow aloft interacts with a moist and unstable air mass already in place. Damaging winds appear the most likely mode of severe, along with sporadic large hail as storms form during the afternoon within a surface trough, and beneath increasing winds aloft. While severe storms may also occur on Saturday/D5 over parts of the northern Plains or upper MS Valley, predictability is lower given expected storms the previous day and potential for long-lived convective systems. However, given such strong instability forecast on Saturday/D5, a risk area is likely to be issued in later outlook cycles over parts of the upper Midwest/MS Valley. Elsewhere, daily thunderstorms within the moist and unstable air mass are forecast for the bulk of CONUS from the Plains eastward, though in a generally weak shear environment. Portions of those areas may see low/marginal probabilities as the events enter into the Day 3 outlook time frame. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a weak upper wave will move eastward across the Great Lakes, phasing with the larger-scale trough which will be exiting the Northeast. South of there, a weakening upper low should remain over FL, providing cool temperatures aloft. Otherwise, winds aloft over much of the central and eastern CONUS will be weak. To the west, moderate westerly flow aloft will move across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, with 30-40 kt 500 mb winds over MT. At the surface, a large area of moisture and instability will remain in place from the Plains and Midwest into the Southeast, and this will continue to support widely scattered thunderstorms, with some producing severe gusts during the afternoon. Meager moisture return will occur into eastern MT, in advance of the low-amplitude upper wave. ...Central Plains into the Midwest... A surface boundary will provide a focus for daytime redevelopment from KS IA/MO/IL, with storms becoming numerous by 00Z. Weak shear and ample moisture should support clusters of storms with primarily localized strong to damaging gusts. ...Southeast... Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to weaken on Thursday, but cool temperatures will still support areas of moderate instability. Storms should again occur over the Appalachians, and perhaps along residual outflows from early convection. Isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop, but surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 40s F within a pre-frontal trough. Still, the deeply mixed boundary layer combined with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and modest westerly flow aloft may support scattered storms capable of locally strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a weak upper wave will move eastward across the Great Lakes, phasing with the larger-scale trough which will be exiting the Northeast. South of there, a weakening upper low should remain over FL, providing cool temperatures aloft. Otherwise, winds aloft over much of the central and eastern CONUS will be weak. To the west, moderate westerly flow aloft will move across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, with 30-40 kt 500 mb winds over MT. At the surface, a large area of moisture and instability will remain in place from the Plains and Midwest into the Southeast, and this will continue to support widely scattered thunderstorms, with some producing severe gusts during the afternoon. Meager moisture return will occur into eastern MT, in advance of the low-amplitude upper wave. ...Central Plains into the Midwest... A surface boundary will provide a focus for daytime redevelopment from KS IA/MO/IL, with storms becoming numerous by 00Z. Weak shear and ample moisture should support clusters of storms with primarily localized strong to damaging gusts. ...Southeast... Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to weaken on Thursday, but cool temperatures will still support areas of moderate instability. Storms should again occur over the Appalachians, and perhaps along residual outflows from early convection. Isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop, but surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 40s F within a pre-frontal trough. Still, the deeply mixed boundary layer combined with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and modest westerly flow aloft may support scattered storms capable of locally strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a weak upper wave will move eastward across the Great Lakes, phasing with the larger-scale trough which will be exiting the Northeast. South of there, a weakening upper low should remain over FL, providing cool temperatures aloft. Otherwise, winds aloft over much of the central and eastern CONUS will be weak. To the west, moderate westerly flow aloft will move across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, with 30-40 kt 500 mb winds over MT. At the surface, a large area of moisture and instability will remain in place from the Plains and Midwest into the Southeast, and this will continue to support widely scattered thunderstorms, with some producing severe gusts during the afternoon. Meager moisture return will occur into eastern MT, in advance of the low-amplitude upper wave. ...Central Plains into the Midwest... A surface boundary will provide a focus for daytime redevelopment from KS IA/MO/IL, with storms becoming numerous by 00Z. Weak shear and ample moisture should support clusters of storms with primarily localized strong to damaging gusts. ...Southeast... Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to weaken on Thursday, but cool temperatures will still support areas of moderate instability. Storms should again occur over the Appalachians, and perhaps along residual outflows from early convection. Isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop, but surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 40s F within a pre-frontal trough. Still, the deeply mixed boundary layer combined with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and modest westerly flow aloft may support scattered storms capable of locally strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a weak upper wave will move eastward across the Great Lakes, phasing with the larger-scale trough which will be exiting the Northeast. South of there, a weakening upper low should remain over FL, providing cool temperatures aloft. Otherwise, winds aloft over much of the central and eastern CONUS will be weak. To the west, moderate westerly flow aloft will move across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, with 30-40 kt 500 mb winds over MT. At the surface, a large area of moisture and instability will remain in place from the Plains and Midwest into the Southeast, and this will continue to support widely scattered thunderstorms, with some producing severe gusts during the afternoon. Meager moisture return will occur into eastern MT, in advance of the low-amplitude upper wave. ...Central Plains into the Midwest... A surface boundary will provide a focus for daytime redevelopment from KS IA/MO/IL, with storms becoming numerous by 00Z. Weak shear and ample moisture should support clusters of storms with primarily localized strong to damaging gusts. ...Southeast... Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to weaken on Thursday, but cool temperatures will still support areas of moderate instability. Storms should again occur over the Appalachians, and perhaps along residual outflows from early convection. Isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop, but surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 40s F within a pre-frontal trough. Still, the deeply mixed boundary layer combined with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and modest westerly flow aloft may support scattered storms capable of locally strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST...AND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a weak upper wave will move eastward across the Great Lakes, phasing with the larger-scale trough which will be exiting the Northeast. South of there, a weakening upper low should remain over FL, providing cool temperatures aloft. Otherwise, winds aloft over much of the central and eastern CONUS will be weak. To the west, moderate westerly flow aloft will move across the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies, with 30-40 kt 500 mb winds over MT. At the surface, a large area of moisture and instability will remain in place from the Plains and Midwest into the Southeast, and this will continue to support widely scattered thunderstorms, with some producing severe gusts during the afternoon. Meager moisture return will occur into eastern MT, in advance of the low-amplitude upper wave. ...Central Plains into the Midwest... A surface boundary will provide a focus for daytime redevelopment from KS IA/MO/IL, with storms becoming numerous by 00Z. Weak shear and ample moisture should support clusters of storms with primarily localized strong to damaging gusts. ...Southeast... Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to weaken on Thursday, but cool temperatures will still support areas of moderate instability. Storms should again occur over the Appalachians, and perhaps along residual outflows from early convection. Isolated damaging gusts will be possible. ...Eastern MT... Steep lapse rates will develop, but surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the 40s F within a pre-frontal trough. Still, the deeply mixed boundary layer combined with 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE and modest westerly flow aloft may support scattered storms capable of locally strong wind gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts are possible over much of the Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will weaken on Wednesday as it lifts out of the Great Basin and across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper high over the OH/TN Valleys will also weaken. Areas of 30 kt midlevel winds will remain over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, aiding movement of storms clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will result in cool/dry trajectories across the Great Lakes, with a boundary roughly from a low over NE eastward toward southern Lower MI and continuing into southern New England. A very moist air mass will remain south of this front, with 2000 J/kg MUCAPE common. South of the upper high, a low-latitude upper low is forecast to move across FL, with -10 C at 500 mb over FL, AL, GA and SC. This will boost instability further, exceeding 3000 J/kg in those areas with steepened midlevel lapse rates. ...Southeast... Strong instability will develop during the afternoon over much of the region, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE common. Of note will be midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.0 C/km, suggesting robust convection is likely. Storms are expected to form around 21Z over the high terrain, and within a surface trough during peak heating over the central Carolinas. Slow moving at first, storms will form into clusters, with erratic motions possible. However, a general southerly trends is expected. The high PWAT content, steep lapse rates, and favorable time of day all suggest areas of damaging microbursts will develop. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Scattered storms are expected farther south into GA, AL, and the FL Panhandle as well, within a southwest extension of the surface trough, and, possibly with the sea breeze. Forecast soundings in this region similarly show very strong instability, with west/southwest moving storm clusters likely producing damaging wind gusts. ...Parts of the northern Plains... Areas of storms will be ongoing early in the day from NE eastward into IL/IN/OH, in a zone of warm advection around the periphery of the ridge. While moist and unstable, lapse rates will not be particularly steep aloft, but substantial moisture will continue to fuel bouts of storms redeveloping during the day from NE into SD/IA/southern MN, and some of this activity could produce marginal hail or wind. To the west, cells will develop during the late afternoon from over the northern to central High Plains, with hail potential as temperatures aloft will remain cool. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts are possible over much of the Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will weaken on Wednesday as it lifts out of the Great Basin and across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper high over the OH/TN Valleys will also weaken. Areas of 30 kt midlevel winds will remain over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, aiding movement of storms clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will result in cool/dry trajectories across the Great Lakes, with a boundary roughly from a low over NE eastward toward southern Lower MI and continuing into southern New England. A very moist air mass will remain south of this front, with 2000 J/kg MUCAPE common. South of the upper high, a low-latitude upper low is forecast to move across FL, with -10 C at 500 mb over FL, AL, GA and SC. This will boost instability further, exceeding 3000 J/kg in those areas with steepened midlevel lapse rates. ...Southeast... Strong instability will develop during the afternoon over much of the region, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE common. Of note will be midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.0 C/km, suggesting robust convection is likely. Storms are expected to form around 21Z over the high terrain, and within a surface trough during peak heating over the central Carolinas. Slow moving at first, storms will form into clusters, with erratic motions possible. However, a general southerly trends is expected. The high PWAT content, steep lapse rates, and favorable time of day all suggest areas of damaging microbursts will develop. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Scattered storms are expected farther south into GA, AL, and the FL Panhandle as well, within a southwest extension of the surface trough, and, possibly with the sea breeze. Forecast soundings in this region similarly show very strong instability, with west/southwest moving storm clusters likely producing damaging wind gusts. ...Parts of the northern Plains... Areas of storms will be ongoing early in the day from NE eastward into IL/IN/OH, in a zone of warm advection around the periphery of the ridge. While moist and unstable, lapse rates will not be particularly steep aloft, but substantial moisture will continue to fuel bouts of storms redeveloping during the day from NE into SD/IA/southern MN, and some of this activity could produce marginal hail or wind. To the west, cells will develop during the late afternoon from over the northern to central High Plains, with hail potential as temperatures aloft will remain cool. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts are possible over much of the Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will weaken on Wednesday as it lifts out of the Great Basin and across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper high over the OH/TN Valleys will also weaken. Areas of 30 kt midlevel winds will remain over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, aiding movement of storms clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will result in cool/dry trajectories across the Great Lakes, with a boundary roughly from a low over NE eastward toward southern Lower MI and continuing into southern New England. A very moist air mass will remain south of this front, with 2000 J/kg MUCAPE common. South of the upper high, a low-latitude upper low is forecast to move across FL, with -10 C at 500 mb over FL, AL, GA and SC. This will boost instability further, exceeding 3000 J/kg in those areas with steepened midlevel lapse rates. ...Southeast... Strong instability will develop during the afternoon over much of the region, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE common. Of note will be midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.0 C/km, suggesting robust convection is likely. Storms are expected to form around 21Z over the high terrain, and within a surface trough during peak heating over the central Carolinas. Slow moving at first, storms will form into clusters, with erratic motions possible. However, a general southerly trends is expected. The high PWAT content, steep lapse rates, and favorable time of day all suggest areas of damaging microbursts will develop. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Scattered storms are expected farther south into GA, AL, and the FL Panhandle as well, within a southwest extension of the surface trough, and, possibly with the sea breeze. Forecast soundings in this region similarly show very strong instability, with west/southwest moving storm clusters likely producing damaging wind gusts. ...Parts of the northern Plains... Areas of storms will be ongoing early in the day from NE eastward into IL/IN/OH, in a zone of warm advection around the periphery of the ridge. While moist and unstable, lapse rates will not be particularly steep aloft, but substantial moisture will continue to fuel bouts of storms redeveloping during the day from NE into SD/IA/southern MN, and some of this activity could produce marginal hail or wind. To the west, cells will develop during the late afternoon from over the northern to central High Plains, with hail potential as temperatures aloft will remain cool. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts are possible over much of the Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will weaken on Wednesday as it lifts out of the Great Basin and across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper high over the OH/TN Valleys will also weaken. Areas of 30 kt midlevel winds will remain over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, aiding movement of storms clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will result in cool/dry trajectories across the Great Lakes, with a boundary roughly from a low over NE eastward toward southern Lower MI and continuing into southern New England. A very moist air mass will remain south of this front, with 2000 J/kg MUCAPE common. South of the upper high, a low-latitude upper low is forecast to move across FL, with -10 C at 500 mb over FL, AL, GA and SC. This will boost instability further, exceeding 3000 J/kg in those areas with steepened midlevel lapse rates. ...Southeast... Strong instability will develop during the afternoon over much of the region, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE common. Of note will be midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.0 C/km, suggesting robust convection is likely. Storms are expected to form around 21Z over the high terrain, and within a surface trough during peak heating over the central Carolinas. Slow moving at first, storms will form into clusters, with erratic motions possible. However, a general southerly trends is expected. The high PWAT content, steep lapse rates, and favorable time of day all suggest areas of damaging microbursts will develop. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Scattered storms are expected farther south into GA, AL, and the FL Panhandle as well, within a southwest extension of the surface trough, and, possibly with the sea breeze. Forecast soundings in this region similarly show very strong instability, with west/southwest moving storm clusters likely producing damaging wind gusts. ...Parts of the northern Plains... Areas of storms will be ongoing early in the day from NE eastward into IL/IN/OH, in a zone of warm advection around the periphery of the ridge. While moist and unstable, lapse rates will not be particularly steep aloft, but substantial moisture will continue to fuel bouts of storms redeveloping during the day from NE into SD/IA/southern MN, and some of this activity could produce marginal hail or wind. To the west, cells will develop during the late afternoon from over the northern to central High Plains, with hail potential as temperatures aloft will remain cool. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts are possible over much of the Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt shortwave trough will weaken on Wednesday as it lifts out of the Great Basin and across the northern Plains. Meanwhile, an upper high over the OH/TN Valleys will also weaken. Areas of 30 kt midlevel winds will remain over parts of the northern Plains and Great Lakes around the northern periphery of the upper ridge, aiding movement of storms clusters throughout the period. At the surface, high pressure over Ontario and Quebec will result in cool/dry trajectories across the Great Lakes, with a boundary roughly from a low over NE eastward toward southern Lower MI and continuing into southern New England. A very moist air mass will remain south of this front, with 2000 J/kg MUCAPE common. South of the upper high, a low-latitude upper low is forecast to move across FL, with -10 C at 500 mb over FL, AL, GA and SC. This will boost instability further, exceeding 3000 J/kg in those areas with steepened midlevel lapse rates. ...Southeast... Strong instability will develop during the afternoon over much of the region, with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE common. Of note will be midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.0 C/km, suggesting robust convection is likely. Storms are expected to form around 21Z over the high terrain, and within a surface trough during peak heating over the central Carolinas. Slow moving at first, storms will form into clusters, with erratic motions possible. However, a general southerly trends is expected. The high PWAT content, steep lapse rates, and favorable time of day all suggest areas of damaging microbursts will develop. As such, the area has been upgraded to a Slight Risk. Scattered storms are expected farther south into GA, AL, and the FL Panhandle as well, within a southwest extension of the surface trough, and, possibly with the sea breeze. Forecast soundings in this region similarly show very strong instability, with west/southwest moving storm clusters likely producing damaging wind gusts. ...Parts of the northern Plains... Areas of storms will be ongoing early in the day from NE eastward into IL/IN/OH, in a zone of warm advection around the periphery of the ridge. While moist and unstable, lapse rates will not be particularly steep aloft, but substantial moisture will continue to fuel bouts of storms redeveloping during the day from NE into SD/IA/southern MN, and some of this activity could produce marginal hail or wind. To the west, cells will develop during the late afternoon from over the northern to central High Plains, with hail potential as temperatures aloft will remain cool. ..Jewell.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more