Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central Plains eastward into the Northeast - and in the mountains of Tennessee, North Carolina, and southern Virginia. ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows an expansive upper ridge over much of the eastern CONUS, and upper troughing across the Great Basin vicinity. A northern-stream shortwave trough currently over SK is forecast to progress quickly eastward through MB and ON, leading to some dampening of the eastern CONUS ridge. Several convectively augmented vorticity maxima are also expected to move through the northern and central High Plains ahead of the more substantial shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin. This evolution will lead to some dampening of the northwestern periphery of this ridge as well. Like the upper pattern, the surface pattern is currently dominated by eastern CONUS ridging, with an ill-defined frontal zone between the warm and moist airmass under the ridge and a more continental airmass across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Recent surface analysis places a low over western KS with a stationary boundary extending northeastward from this low to another low over WI. A more progressive cold front extends northeastward from the WI low through central ON. The moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) south of this boundary will destabilize with daytime heating, and scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level convergence during the afternoon from the central Plains through the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm strength/organization and contributing to an outflow-dominant storm mode. Damaging gusts will be possible with any of the stronger line segments. Greater severe potential is expected across the northern and central High Plains (discussed below). ...Northern/Central High Plains... Post-frontal southeasterly upslope flow is anticipated across the region today, helping to offset diurnal mixing and keep dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s this afternoon. The increased low-level moisture and strong heating will foster airmass destabilization by the early afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorm expected. Initiation is expected over the higher terrain before then moving northeastward into the lower elevations. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support supercells initially capable of producing large to very large hail. A trend towards more outflow-dominant structures is anticipated with time, with one or more line segments capable of strong to severe gusts developing. This outflow-dominant character is forecast to limit the tornado threat, but a locally enhanced threat may exist from southeast WY into the southern NE Panhandle and far northeast CO where the best overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly surface winds is expected. ...Southern Rockies... Increasing low to mid-level moisture will support numerous to widespread thunderstorms across the southern Rockies today. Very shear will be weak, promoting a mostly disorganized multicellular mode. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Early morning satellite imagery shows an expansive upper ridge over much of the eastern CONUS, and upper troughing across the Great Basin vicinity. A northern-stream shortwave trough currently over SK is forecast to progress quickly eastward through MB and ON, leading to some dampening of the eastern CONUS ridge. Several convectively augmented vorticity maxima are also expected to move through the northern and central High Plains ahead of the more substantial shortwave trough moving across the Great Basin. This evolution will lead to some dampening of the northwestern periphery of this ridge as well. Like the upper pattern, the surface pattern is currently dominated by eastern CONUS ridging, with an ill-defined frontal zone between the warm and moist airmass under the ridge and a more continental airmass across the northern Plains and Upper MS Valley. Recent surface analysis places a low over western KS with a stationary boundary extending northeastward from this low to another low over WI. A more progressive cold front extends northeastward from the WI low through central ON. The moist airmass (i.e. dewpoints in the 70s) south of this boundary will destabilize with daytime heating, and scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated amid modest low-level convergence during the afternoon from the central Plains through the Great Lakes region into the Northeast. Vertical shear will be weak, limiting storm strength/organization and contributing to an outflow-dominant storm mode. Damaging gusts will be possible with any of the stronger line segments. Greater severe potential is expected across the northern and central High Plains (discussed below). ...Northern/Central High Plains... Post-frontal southeasterly upslope flow is anticipated across the region today, helping to offset diurnal mixing and keep dewpoints in the upper 50s/low 60s this afternoon. The increased low-level moisture and strong heating will foster airmass destabilization by the early afternoon, with scattered to numerous thunderstorm expected. Initiation is expected over the higher terrain before then moving northeastward into the lower elevations. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support supercells initially capable of producing large to very large hail. A trend towards more outflow-dominant structures is anticipated with time, with one or more line segments capable of strong to severe gusts developing. This outflow-dominant character is forecast to limit the tornado threat, but a locally enhanced threat may exist from southeast WY into the southern NE Panhandle and far northeast CO where the best overlap between low-level moisture and southeasterly surface winds is expected. ...Southern Rockies... Increasing low to mid-level moisture will support numerous to widespread thunderstorms across the southern Rockies today. Very shear will be weak, promoting a mostly disorganized multicellular mode. ..Mosier/Leitman.. 06/24/2025 Read more