Severe Storms

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the Four Corners and Intermountain West. Early-morning water-vapor imagery reveals an upper low migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley. This feature is expected to meander across the southern Great Basin through the day with a belt of modest (20-40 knot) southwesterly mid-level flow extending from northern AZ into southern WY. Under this speed max, dry conditions persist across the region with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. Although surface pressure gradient winds will likely only remain in the mid teens, frequent gusts between 20-35 mph are expected as ample diurnal heating drives deep boundary-layer mixing. Fuels across the region remain supportive of fire spread given recent fire activity and no appreciable rainfall over the past 1-2 weeks. ...Dry Thunderstorms - Northeast Nevada... Cold temperatures aloft associated with the southern Great Basin upper low, coupled with a modest influx of mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote isolated weak thunderstorms across portions of northeast NV. Thermodynamic profiles are typical of dry thunderstorm environments; however, slow storm motions (less than 10 knots) will promote wetting rainfall under the convective cores. Isolated dry lightning strikes on the periphery of heavier precipitation is possible, but confidence in a robust dry thunderstorm threat remains limited. ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A mid-level anticyclone will remain in place today across much of the southeastern third of the nation, as west-northwesterly mid-level flow continues from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be located over the central and northern High Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability will develop across parts of the region, and scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of the High Plains this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado at 21Z have 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/Km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that become particularly intense. In areas where convective coverage is greatest, the cells could congeal into short line segments capable of severe gusts. The severe threat should be greatest from late afternoon to mid evening. ....Central and Northern Plains/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast... The northern edge of a mid-level anticyclone will remain from the mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the central Appalachians today. To the north of the anticyclone, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. At the surface, a front will be positioned from the central Plains east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. This, along with increasing low-level convergence near the front, will result in scattered convective initiation. Several clusters or line segments are expected to develop and move eastward into the stronger instability. Although deep-layer shear will remain on the marginal side for organized storms, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicell line segments in areas that heat up the most. ..Broyles/Moore.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A mid-level anticyclone will remain in place today across much of the southeastern third of the nation, as west-northwesterly mid-level flow continues from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be located over the central and northern High Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability will develop across parts of the region, and scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of the High Plains this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado at 21Z have 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/Km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that become particularly intense. In areas where convective coverage is greatest, the cells could congeal into short line segments capable of severe gusts. The severe threat should be greatest from late afternoon to mid evening. ....Central and Northern Plains/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast... The northern edge of a mid-level anticyclone will remain from the mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the central Appalachians today. To the north of the anticyclone, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. At the surface, a front will be positioned from the central Plains east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. This, along with increasing low-level convergence near the front, will result in scattered convective initiation. Several clusters or line segments are expected to develop and move eastward into the stronger instability. Although deep-layer shear will remain on the marginal side for organized storms, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicell line segments in areas that heat up the most. ..Broyles/Moore.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A mid-level anticyclone will remain in place today across much of the southeastern third of the nation, as west-northwesterly mid-level flow continues from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be located over the central and northern High Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability will develop across parts of the region, and scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of the High Plains this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado at 21Z have 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/Km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that become particularly intense. In areas where convective coverage is greatest, the cells could congeal into short line segments capable of severe gusts. The severe threat should be greatest from late afternoon to mid evening. ....Central and Northern Plains/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast... The northern edge of a mid-level anticyclone will remain from the mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the central Appalachians today. To the north of the anticyclone, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. At the surface, a front will be positioned from the central Plains east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. This, along with increasing low-level convergence near the front, will result in scattered convective initiation. Several clusters or line segments are expected to develop and move eastward into the stronger instability. Although deep-layer shear will remain on the marginal side for organized storms, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicell line segments in areas that heat up the most. ..Broyles/Moore.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A mid-level anticyclone will remain in place today across much of the southeastern third of the nation, as west-northwesterly mid-level flow continues from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be located over the central and northern High Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability will develop across parts of the region, and scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of the High Plains this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado at 21Z have 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/Km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that become particularly intense. In areas where convective coverage is greatest, the cells could congeal into short line segments capable of severe gusts. The severe threat should be greatest from late afternoon to mid evening. ....Central and Northern Plains/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast... The northern edge of a mid-level anticyclone will remain from the mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the central Appalachians today. To the north of the anticyclone, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. At the surface, a front will be positioned from the central Plains east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. This, along with increasing low-level convergence near the front, will result in scattered convective initiation. Several clusters or line segments are expected to develop and move eastward into the stronger instability. Although deep-layer shear will remain on the marginal side for organized storms, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicell line segments in areas that heat up the most. ..Broyles/Moore.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A mid-level anticyclone will remain in place today across much of the southeastern third of the nation, as west-northwesterly mid-level flow continues from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be located over the central and northern High Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability will develop across parts of the region, and scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of the High Plains this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado at 21Z have 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/Km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that become particularly intense. In areas where convective coverage is greatest, the cells could congeal into short line segments capable of severe gusts. The severe threat should be greatest from late afternoon to mid evening. ....Central and Northern Plains/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast... The northern edge of a mid-level anticyclone will remain from the mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the central Appalachians today. To the north of the anticyclone, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. At the surface, a front will be positioned from the central Plains east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. This, along with increasing low-level convergence near the front, will result in scattered convective initiation. Several clusters or line segments are expected to develop and move eastward into the stronger instability. Although deep-layer shear will remain on the marginal side for organized storms, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicell line segments in areas that heat up the most. ..Broyles/Moore.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Storms associated with very large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Marginally severe storms will be possible this afternoon from part of the central and northern Plains eastward into the Northeast. ...Central and Northern High Plains... A mid-level anticyclone will remain in place today across much of the southeastern third of the nation, as west-northwesterly mid-level flow continues from the north-central U.S. into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be located over the central and northern High Plains, where surface dewpoints will be mostly from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability will develop across parts of the region, and scattered convection will initiate in the higher terrain. These storms will move eastward into the lower elevations of the High Plains this afternoon. RAP forecast soundings from eastern Wyoming into northeastern Colorado at 21Z have 40 to 50 knots of deep-layer shear, with 700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/Km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with supercells that become particularly intense. In areas where convective coverage is greatest, the cells could congeal into short line segments capable of severe gusts. The severe threat should be greatest from late afternoon to mid evening. ....Central and Northern Plains/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower Great Lakes/Northeast... The northern edge of a mid-level anticyclone will remain from the mid Mississippi Valley east-northeastward into the central Appalachians today. To the north of the anticyclone, west-southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place. At the surface, a front will be positioned from the central Plains east-northeastward into the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. Near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate instability by afternoon. This, along with increasing low-level convergence near the front, will result in scattered convective initiation. Several clusters or line segments are expected to develop and move eastward into the stronger instability. Although deep-layer shear will remain on the marginal side for organized storms, low-level lapse rates will become steep in the mid to late afternoon. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat with the stronger multicell line segments in areas that heat up the most. ..Broyles/Moore.. 06/24/2025 Read more

MD 1425 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1425 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0831 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...portions of northwest Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 240131Z - 240300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A small bowing cluster emanating from eastern Quebec may pose a risk for damaging gusts or a brief tornado this evening. Confidence in a persistent severe threat is not high. DISCUSSION...As of 0125 UTC, MRMS and EC radar imagery showed a small bowing cluster of thunderstorms across the St Lawrence River Valley in eastern QC. Largely paralleling a stationary frontal zone, these storms have remained fairly organized this evening amidst moderate buoyancy and 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear. Additional moistening of the boundary layer is ongoing along and south of the frontal zone from low-level warm advection across western ME. Forecast soundings from the Rapid Refresh suggests surface dew points increasing to near or above 70 F, which may temporarily slowly nocturnal stabilization. In the presence of enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, a few damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado are possible with this thunderstorm cluster. Storms should cross the international border in the next 1-2 hours. Confidence in a sustained severe threat is low as nocturnal stabilization will gradually diminish the remaining instability. Still, deep veering wind profiles and moderate shear could support some severe threat for a few hours tonight. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, though a WW currently appears unlikely. ..Lyons/Smith.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 47256969 47366935 47176894 46526856 46116878 45666917 45556938 45617036 45967068 47256969 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1424 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457... FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1424 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457... Valid 240042Z - 240215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 457 continues. SUMMARY...A localized severe wind/hail risk will persist for roughly the next hour, but the overall severe threat is beginning to wane as outflow continues to overspread the region. DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KTWX shows convective outflow overspreading much of northwest KS as convective clusters continue to weaken. Overall convective intensity across eastern KS has largely begun to wane as outflow become more widespread, though a few localized corridors of severe potential should persist for the short term. New thunderstorms developing on the northwest fringe of the cold pool are moving out of the warm sector and into a more stable air mass. GOES IR imagery shows occasional deep updraft pulses, suggesting that a few instances of severe hail and/or a strong downburst or two remain possible for the next hour or so. Further east closer to the KS/MO border, the eastward propagation of the outflow combined with north/northeastward storm motions have made it difficult for convection to fully realize the buoyant warm-sector environment (best characterized by the recent 00z TOP sounding). It is unclear if additional convective development can remain rooted near the surface along the leading edge of the outflow long enough to pose a severe hail/wind threat, but this remains at least a low possibility prior to the onset of nocturnal stabilization closer to the 02-03 UTC period. ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 38759577 38889614 39189648 39309692 39349757 39659788 39899773 39999725 40069666 40069607 40029549 39929523 39789503 39409492 38969502 38749530 38759577 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1423 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska into far northwest Missouri and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456... Valid 232323Z - 240130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of corridors of higher severe wind potential may be emerging across far northwest Missouri and central Iowa ahead of two organizing clusters. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection continues to erupt along and ahead of a convectively augmented cold front from far southeast NE into far northwest MO and southern/central IA. Most of this activity has remained fairly transient, but has a history of producing small swaths of severe winds (including a 62 mph gust at KDSM). To the south and east of the Des Moines, IA area, convection has begun to consolidate along the cold front with echo tops occasionally reaching up to 50 kft at times. Further intensification appears likely over the next hour or so as this band approaches a regional MLCAPE maximum near 3500 J/kg. Additional cold pool amalgamation coupled with intensifying convection should promote a relative increase in severe wind potential. Further southwest across the NE/IA/MO tri-state area, a secondary band of convection has begun to slowly organize along a consolidated outflow boundary based on regional velocity imagery. Additionally, GOES IR imagery show steady cloud top cooling indicative of intensification, and cold pool temperature deficits are approaching 20 F, suggesting a deep cold pool is beginning to develop. These trends suggest that a strong to severe line may emerge over the next hour or so downstream along the MO/IA border. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 40189628 40629555 42259246 42419198 42399143 42309107 42089100 41729109 41419129 41129198 40079419 39929459 39889498 39829606 39879632 40039643 40189628 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE MHK TO 30 W LWD TO 10 N OXV TO 20 N CID TO 45 NNW DBQ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 ..MOORE..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC011-039-053-055-061-095-097-103-105-107-113-117-123-125-157- 159-240240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLARKE DECATUR DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MAHASKA MARION POWESHIEK RINGGOLD MOC003-075-081-087-147-227-240240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW GENTRY HARRISON HOLT NODAWAY WORTH Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE MHK TO 30 W LWD TO 10 N OXV TO 20 N CID TO 45 NNW DBQ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 ..MOORE..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC011-039-053-055-061-095-097-103-105-107-113-117-123-125-157- 159-240240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLARKE DECATUR DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MAHASKA MARION POWESHIEK RINGGOLD MOC003-075-081-087-147-227-240240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW GENTRY HARRISON HOLT NODAWAY WORTH Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE MHK TO 30 W LWD TO 10 N OXV TO 20 N CID TO 45 NNW DBQ. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 ..MOORE..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC011-039-053-055-061-095-097-103-105-107-113-117-123-125-157- 159-240240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLARKE DECATUR DELAWARE DUBUQUE IOWA JACKSON JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MAHASKA MARION POWESHIEK RINGGOLD MOC003-075-081-087-147-227-240240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREW GENTRY HARRISON HOLT NODAWAY WORTH Read more

WW 456 SEVERE TSTM IA MO NE 232140Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern into Central and Southwest Iowa Far Northwest Missouri Far Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to evolve over the late afternoon and persist into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear sufficient for multicellular storm organization and ample buoyancy, will combine to promote 55-65 mph gusts with the stronger storms. This activity will likely diminish in intensity by mid to late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles northeast of Cedar Rapids IA to 45 miles west northwest of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 455... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Smith Read more