Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1417 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1417 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...portions of central Kansas into far southeast Nebraska and southwestern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231934Z - 232200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Some increase in severe potential may occur if more robust thunderstorm development can take place along the cold front. Strong to potentially severe wind gusts would be the main hazard. Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has developed across eastern NE in a post-cold-frontal regime. Within the last hour, convection has tried to deepen along the KS/NE border, closer to the cold front, and where greater buoyancy resides. Deep-layer shear is modest at best (e.g. 30 kts), and is lagging the cold front. While vertical wind shear is limited, 7-8 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates atop 70+ F surface dewpoints is contributing to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in a weakly capped environment. While storms should be mainly pulse-cellular or multicellular, any cold-pool mergers that occur with the more intense storms may support strong to severe gusts. Convective trends are being monitored for further increases in coverage or intensity that would warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39449947 41119694 41759606 42459456 42649365 42579272 42389244 41829271 40969342 40439394 39979481 38929680 38549805 38579874 38649923 38729943 39449947 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0456 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MQT...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-043-065-191-232140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CLAYTON FAYETTE WINNESHIEK MIC003-041-043-095-103-109-153-232140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALGER DELTA DICKINSON LUCE MARQUETTE MENOMINEE SCHOOLCRAFT MNC055-232140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MQT...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-043-065-191-232140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CLAYTON FAYETTE WINNESHIEK MIC003-041-043-095-103-109-153-232140- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALGER DELTA DICKINSON LUCE MARQUETTE MENOMINEE SCHOOLCRAFT MNC055-232140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON Read more

MD 1419 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1419 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...portions of southeastern New Mexico into far west Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232018Z - 232045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A severe gust or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon. The sparse severe threat should preclude a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts intensifying thunderstorm updrafts, with 40 dBZ cores reaching the 30-50 kft range. Boundary layer lapse rates continue to steepen to 9 C/km (per 20Z mesoanalysis) given strong surface heating. As such, one of the stronger storm cores could collapse and produce a severe gust. However, vertical wind shear is weak, and pulse-cellular storms should remain the primary storm mode. As such, the severe threat is low, and a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 30940554 33480572 34070557 34380443 34150294 33690243 33260240 32230288 31180295 30700315 30510356 30540475 30940554 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more