Severe Storms

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0455 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jun 23 17:32:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The large-scale pattern across the CONUS on Tuesday will feature a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS and a deamplifying trough across the western CONUS. In between these features, a mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central Rockies and be the primary focus for severe weather concern Tuesday afternoon/evening. At the surface, an elongated front will extend from the Northeast to the central Plains. This front will move southeast into parts of New England during the period, remain mostly stationary across the Great Lakes/Midwest, and start to move north as a warm front across the Plains as weak lee troughing occurs across eastern Colorado/Wyoming in response to the passing mid-level shortwave trough. ...Central High Plains... Weak to moderate destabilization is expected across the central High Plains on Tuesday afternoon/evening as temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the low 60s. Inhibition should be mostly eroded by early afternoon with scattered to widespread thunderstorm development expected. The extensive nature of the convection, combined with only marginal shear (25 to 30 knots) may result in a somewhat messy storm mode. However, early in the storm lifecycle, steep mid-level lapse rates and moderate instability may support some 2+ inch hail. As storms congeal, one or more forward-propagating clusters may develop with a threat for severe wind gusts. ...Iowa/northern Missouri into the Great Lakes... Moderate destabilization and weak shear will be present along the mostly stalled frontal zone during the afternoon and evening on Tuesday. Very warm temperatures aloft (-4C at 500mb) will be the primary limiting factor to a greater severe weather threat. However, enhanced forcing/flow in the vicinity of one or more MCVs (likely remaining from Day 1 convection) may provide focus for some strong to locally severe storms. ...Northeast... Temperatures are expected to warm into the upper 80s to near 90 with dewpoints in the low 70s across the Northeast on Tuesday afternoon/evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates should provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for strong updrafts. Shear should be mostly weak with less than 30 knots of tropospheric unidirectional flow. However, the moderate to strong instability and forcing along the front may be sufficient for a few stronger storms/clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Carolinas vicinity... Some guidance suggests the potential for stronger storms across the Carolinas with relatively cooler mid level temperatures along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Southwestward moving storms within this pattern would be a climatologically rare phenomenon. While a few stronger storms are possible, warm temperatures around 750mb may limit storm coverage with convective temperatures around 100F based on RAP forecast soundings. The guidance with greater storm coverage has forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s and not as strong of a warm nose below 700mb. If this solution appears more likely, a marginal may eventually be needed, but this scenario appears too unlikely for probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Only minor changes to broad Elevated highlights across the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin were needed. Previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24 hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Only minor changes to broad Elevated highlights across the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin were needed. Previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24 hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Only minor changes to broad Elevated highlights across the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin were needed. Previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24 hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Only minor changes to broad Elevated highlights across the greater Four Corners region and southern Great Basin were needed. Previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather concerns will persist across the greater southern Great Basin and Four Corners region today as breezy conditions continue within a dry air mass. Low to mid-level flow over the Intermountain West is expect to weaken over the next 24 hours as a leading shortwave impulse ejects northward into the Canadian Prairies. A secondary, weaker shortwave will settle into the lower CO Valley through today, which will maintain southwesterly flow across the southern Great Basin and into the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating of a very dry air mass (as sampled by regional 00z RAOBs) will promote wind gusts between 20-35 mph by late afternoon, though ensemble guidance continues to suggest that sustained winds will most likely remain between 15-20 mph for most locations. Regardless, increasing rainfall deficits and antecedent dry fuels/ongoing fires will support another day of at least low-end fire weather concerns as dry/breezy conditions become more prevalent through the afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more