Severe Storms

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CYS TO 10 SE BFF TO 50 NE AIA TO 55 S PHP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411 ..HART..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-007-031-033-049-069-075-091-101-105-117-123-230240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER CHERRY CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL MCPHERSON MORRILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE CYS TO 10 SE BFF TO 50 NE AIA TO 55 S PHP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1411 ..HART..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-007-031-033-049-069-075-091-101-105-117-123-230240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER CHERRY CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL MCPHERSON MORRILL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 452 SEVERE TSTM NE WY 222015Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 452 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 PM MDT Sun Jun 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Nebraska Extreme Southeast Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 215 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move east across the watch area this afternoon and evening, with a risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple tornadoes. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Torrington WY to 85 miles east of Alliance NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 451... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ABR TO 35 NNW DTL TO 15 ESE TVF TO 25 NNW ROX. ..MOORE..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-021-029-051-057-061-071-077-087-111-135-159-167- 230140- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLEARWATER GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN OTTER TAIL ROSEAU WADENA WILKIN NDC077-230140- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RICHLAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with marginally severe gusts and hail will also be likely across parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over the northern Rockies, with southwest flow located over the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a 997 mb low is located in far southeast North Dakota with a cold front extending southwestward from the low into eastern South Dakota and central Nebraska. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 70s F across the upper Mississippi Valley, with mostly 60s F located over parts of the mid Missouri Valley and central Plains. The RAP has moderate to strong instability analyzed ahead the front, with the highest instability in north-central Minnesota where MLCAPE is estimated to be near 4000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front in north-central Nebraska, and in the post-frontal airmass in western Nebraska. This activity is being supported by subtle shortwave trough moving through the central High Plains. As low-level flow ramps up this evening, storm coverage is expected to gradually increase, with the storms moving northeastward into southern and eastern South Dakota later this evening. Additional storms appear likely to develop over parts of Minnesota. Near the front from eastern South Dakota into northwest Minnesota, RAP forecast soundings suggest that 0-6 km shear will be mostly between 30 and 40 knots this evening. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates will be near 8 C/km. This environment should support supercells with large hail. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible, mainly over west-central and northern Minnesota where the strongest instability is analyzed. Some short-term models also show potential for short intense line segments. If a line can become organized and remain persistent, the potential for severe gusts would be pronounced, with wind gusts above 70 mph possible. A tornado threat will also be likely with supercells, and bowing line segments. ...Southern and Central High Plains... Southwest mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery over the southern and central High Plains. At the surface, a 998 mb low is located in far southwest Nebraska with a moist airmass located to the south and southeast of the low across much of the central and southern High Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The storms are being supported by a subtle shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability this evening. The Amarillo 00Z sounding has very steep low to mid-level lapse rates, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and about 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. This should support a threat for isolated severe gusts this evening. Hail will also be possible with the stronger cores. The severe threat could expand north-northeastward into western Kansas as low-level flow increases this evening. ..Broyles.. 06/23/2025 Read more

MD 1409 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 451... FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1409 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...northern Minnesota Concerning...Tornado Watch 451... Valid 222252Z - 230045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 451 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat is likely increasing across northern Minnesota as thunderstorms develop within a favorable environment. DISCUSSION...GOES visible and IR imagery show steady vertical growth of convection across north-central MN along and north of a warm front and to the west ahead of a cold front. Based on recent RAP forecast soundings, areas that have temperatures in the mid 70s or higher will likely support surface-based convection within the warm frontal zone where backed low-level winds are yielding effective SRH on the order of 200-250 m2/s2. Increasing low to mid-level ascent associated with the approach of an upstream perturbation and within the warm advection regime should promote continued storm maturation and coverage over the next couple of hours. Given that the number of candidate storms appears to be increasing within this narrow, but very favorable environment (best characterized by STP values between 3-5), the potential for tornadoes - including strong tornadoes - may increase in the coming hours if one or more mature supercells can maintain sufficient residence time within this corridor. ..Moore.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 47849331 47569477 47569552 47569605 47659636 47939650 48449623 48889594 48949564 48869514 48549457 48479411 48469355 48489322 48379297 48099294 47909312 47849331 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1410 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453... FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...Central Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453... Valid 222252Z - 230045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453 continues. SUMMARY...Coverage of severe storms will increase this evening over central NE and southeast SD. Very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado are possible. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a cluster of intensifying thunderstorms has congealed into a significant supercell over Blaine County NE. This storm is immediately along a slow moving surface cold front, with ambient wind fields potentially allowing the storm to remain in the frontal zone for the next couple of hours. If this were to occur, a corridor of significant severe risk (very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 65 knots) could occur across parts of Loup/Rock/Holt counties. Enhanced low-level convergence and shear along the front could also result in a brief tornado or two, although high LCL heights and rather weak shear in the warm sector are limiting factors. Farther south, visible satellite shows a few tcu attempts along the dryline over south-central NE. If these storms can become established, high-based supercell structures would be favored capable of damaging winds and large hail. ..Hart.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40690070 42689938 43219796 42809737 41629904 40310039 40690070 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1408 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452... FOR NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1408 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452... Valid 222226Z - 230030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452 continues. SUMMARY...A few discrete supercells continue across the western Nebraska Panhandle, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery shows two discrete supercells over Scotts Bluff and Banner counties NE. These storms have formed as lift associated with an approaching shortwave trough interacted with deep easterly/upslope flow. Full sunshine ahead of the storms, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s will help to maintain the activity for several more hours. Forecast soundings show steep low and mid-level lapse rates and ample CAPE, along with favorable deep-layer shear for maintaining supercell or small bowing structures. Damaging winds and large hail will remain possible. Recent HRRR runs are suggesting some potential for southward development of this activity in far northern CO, where a similar boundary-layer regime is present. If this occurs, these storms would also pose a severe hail/wind risk. However, the area affected would likely be too small to warrant an additional watch. ..Hart.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42220369 42530178 42040132 41390193 40710272 40540399 41390427 42220369 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0453 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 453 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...OAX...LBF...GID...FSD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 453 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC003-009-011-015-017-019-027-041-047-063-071-073-077-085-089- 093-103-107-111-113-115-119-137-139-149-163-171-175-183- 230140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANTELOPE BLAINE BOONE BOYD BROWN BUFFALO CEDAR CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GARFIELD GOSPER GREELEY HAYES HOLT HOWARD KEYA PAHA KNOX LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MADISON PHELPS PIERCE ROCK SHERMAN THOMAS VALLEY WHEELER SDC003-005-009-011-015-023-027-035-043-053-061-067-073-077-079- 083-087-097-099-101-111-125-135-230140- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME Read more