Severe Storms

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E CYS TO 10 SE BFF TO 15 NNW AIA TO 35 ENE CDR. ..HART..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF...CYS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 452 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC005-007-031-033-049-069-075-091-101-105-117-123-161-230140- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARTHUR BANNER CHERRY CHEYENNE DEUEL GARDEN GRANT HOOKER KEITH KIMBALL MCPHERSON MORRILL SHERIDAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1407 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Colorado to northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222210Z - 230015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts appear possible later this evening as thunderstorms develop over the next couple of hours. Thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if a scattered severe threat becomes apparent. DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery continues to show slowly building cumulus along a weakly confluent dryline from southwest Nebraska into western Kansas and far southeast Colorado. Surface dewpoint depressions of 40-45 F and gusts of 35-40 mph on the western fringe of the warm sector suggest very deeply mixed boundary layers with minimal inhibition. Despite nebulous ascent and somewhat marginal buoyancy, a few thunderstorms will likely emerge from within this regime over the next couple of hours prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling. Moderate flow within the lowest 1-2 km, coupled with downdraft accelerations through a deep/dry boundary layer, will promote strong to severe downburst wind gusts with any deep convection that can emerge. The expectation is that convective coverage will likely remain too limited to warrant watch issuance, but trends will continue to be monitored for a more scattered severe threat. ..Moore/Smith.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 39360192 39910156 40090125 40100079 40010057 39780044 39590039 39340048 37350160 37120179 37050204 37030232 37060268 37130292 37250304 37450310 39360192 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0454 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0454 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1409 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 451... FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1409 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...northern Minnesota Concerning...Tornado Watch 451... Valid 222252Z - 230045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 451 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat is likely increasing across northern Minnesota as thunderstorms develop within a favorable environment. DISCUSSION...GOES visible and IR imagery show steady vertical growth of convection across north-central MN along and north of a warm front and to the west ahead of a cold front. Based on recent RAP forecast soundings, areas that have temperatures in the mid 70s or higher will likely support surface-based convection within the warm frontal zone where backed low-level winds are yielding effective SRH on the order of 200-250 m2/s2. Increasing low to mid-level ascent associated with the approach of an upstream perturbation and within the warm advection regime should promote continued storm maturation and coverage over the next couple of hours. Given that the number of candidate storms appears to be increasing within this narrow, but very favorable environment (best characterized by STP values between 3-5), the potential for tornadoes - including strong tornadoes - may increase in the coming hours if one or more mature supercells can maintain sufficient residence time within this corridor. ..Moore.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF... LAT...LON 47849331 47569477 47569552 47569605 47659636 47939650 48449623 48889594 48949564 48869514 48549457 48479411 48469355 48489322 48379297 48099294 47909312 47849331 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1410 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 453... FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1410 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0552 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...Central Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453... Valid 222252Z - 230045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 453 continues. SUMMARY...Coverage of severe storms will increase this evening over central NE and southeast SD. Very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado are possible. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a cluster of intensifying thunderstorms has congealed into a significant supercell over Blaine County NE. This storm is immediately along a slow moving surface cold front, with ambient wind fields potentially allowing the storm to remain in the frontal zone for the next couple of hours. If this were to occur, a corridor of significant severe risk (very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 65 knots) could occur across parts of Loup/Rock/Holt counties. Enhanced low-level convergence and shear along the front could also result in a brief tornado or two, although high LCL heights and rather weak shear in the warm sector are limiting factors. Farther south, visible satellite shows a few tcu attempts along the dryline over south-central NE. If these storms can become established, high-based supercell structures would be favored capable of damaging winds and large hail. ..Hart.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40690070 42689938 43219796 42809737 41629904 40310039 40690070 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1408 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 452... FOR NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1408 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0526 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452... Valid 222226Z - 230030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452 continues. SUMMARY...A few discrete supercells continue across the western Nebraska Panhandle, posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. DISCUSSION...Latest radar and satellite imagery shows two discrete supercells over Scotts Bluff and Banner counties NE. These storms have formed as lift associated with an approaching shortwave trough interacted with deep easterly/upslope flow. Full sunshine ahead of the storms, coupled with dewpoints in the upper 50s and 60s will help to maintain the activity for several more hours. Forecast soundings show steep low and mid-level lapse rates and ample CAPE, along with favorable deep-layer shear for maintaining supercell or small bowing structures. Damaging winds and large hail will remain possible. Recent HRRR runs are suggesting some potential for southward development of this activity in far northern CO, where a similar boundary-layer regime is present. If this occurs, these storms would also pose a severe hail/wind risk. However, the area affected would likely be too small to warrant an additional watch. ..Hart.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42220369 42530178 42040132 41390193 40710272 40540399 41390427 42220369 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1407 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO NORTHWEST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1407 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0510 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Colorado to northwest Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 222210Z - 230015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts appear possible later this evening as thunderstorms develop over the next couple of hours. Thunderstorm coverage remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if a scattered severe threat becomes apparent. DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery continues to show slowly building cumulus along a weakly confluent dryline from southwest Nebraska into western Kansas and far southeast Colorado. Surface dewpoint depressions of 40-45 F and gusts of 35-40 mph on the western fringe of the warm sector suggest very deeply mixed boundary layers with minimal inhibition. Despite nebulous ascent and somewhat marginal buoyancy, a few thunderstorms will likely emerge from within this regime over the next couple of hours prior to the onset of nocturnal cooling. Moderate flow within the lowest 1-2 km, coupled with downdraft accelerations through a deep/dry boundary layer, will promote strong to severe downburst wind gusts with any deep convection that can emerge. The expectation is that convective coverage will likely remain too limited to warrant watch issuance, but trends will continue to be monitored for a more scattered severe threat. ..Moore/Smith.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB... LAT...LON 39360192 39910156 40090125 40100079 40010057 39780044 39590039 39340048 37350160 37120179 37050204 37030232 37060268 37130292 37250304 37450310 39360192 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0454 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0454 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 454 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 222345Z - 230400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 454 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 645 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Oklahoma Panhandle Western Half of the Texas Panhandle * Effective this Sunday evening from 645 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms evolving into one or two small clusters are forecast to gradually move east-northeast across the Watch this evening. Severe gusts (60-70 mph) are possible with the more intense downdrafts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from Elkhart KS to 75 miles south southwest of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 451...WW 452...WW 453... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Smith Read more

WW 0451 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ABR TO 30 SW TVF TO 50 NNE HCO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1409 ..MOORE..06/22/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...DLH...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 451 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-007-021-027-029-051-057-061-071-077-087-089-107-111-113- 119-125-135-159-167-230040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER BELTRAMI CASS CLAY CLEARWATER GRANT HUBBARD ITASCA KOOCHICHING LAKE OF THE WOODS MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE ROSEAU WADENA WILKIN NDC077-081-230040- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE RICHLAND SARGENT Read more

WW 451 TORNADO MN ND 221955Z - 230300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of West-central and Northern Minnesota Eastern North Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and move northeast across the watch area this afternoon and evening. A few tornadoes will be possible, including the potential for a couple strong tornadoes. Large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts will also accompany the most intense storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles west northwest of International Falls MN to 55 miles south southwest of Fargo ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Bunting Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 22 22:00:13 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more