SPC Jun 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY. Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable. ...Northern to central High Plains... Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE. ...Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening... Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY. Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable. ...Northern to central High Plains... Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE. ...Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening... Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY. Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable. ...Northern to central High Plains... Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE. ...Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening... Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY. Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable. ...Northern to central High Plains... Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE. ...Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening... Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY. Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable. ...Northern to central High Plains... Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE. ...Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening... Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY. Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable. ...Northern to central High Plains... Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE. ...Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening... Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY. Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable. ...Northern to central High Plains... Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE. ...Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening... Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY. Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable. ...Northern to central High Plains... Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE. ...Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening... Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY. Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable. ...Northern to central High Plains... Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE. ...Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening... Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Jun 22, 2025 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN WYOMING AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the East will flatten on Tuesday as a strong upper trough moves across Ontario and Quebec, with the strongest height falls occurring overnight. To the west, shortwave ridging will occur over the northern Plains during the day, as a weakening and low-amplitude wave moves from UT into WY through 00Z. This system will continue into the northern Plains overnight, providing cooling aloft. At the surface, high pressure will extend from the upper Great Lakes into the Southeast, with southerly winds persisting over the Plains. A boundary from Lower MI into NE will surge north as a warm front late in the day and overnight, with backed/easterly winds along this front allowing for near 60 F dewpoints as far west as eastern WY. Late in the day, a cold front associated with the Quebec upper trough will push south across NY, PA, and New England, providing a focus for storms as the antecedent air mass will be unstable. ...Northern to central High Plains... Morning thunderstorms may be ongoing from parts of NE and KS northeastward into Lower MI, but probably not severe at that time. As heating occurs, re-development is possible, both along the developing warm front or with any MCVs or residual outflow boundaries. The weak shear environment coupled with moderate instability will primarily yield sporadic clusters of strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Farther west into eastern WY and northeast CO, supercell potential will exist late in the day and during the evening, as moist easterly flow eventually becomes uncapped generally east of a Casper to Cheyenne to Denver line. Aided by steep lapse rates/heating over the higher terrain, and the approaching upper trough, widely scattered cells are anticipated, with large hail the most likely threat. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out. While capping will be an issue after dark, the lifting warm front may support additional storms into western SD/NE. ...Northeast Late Afternoon/Evening... Forecast soundings across the area depict relatively warm profiles aloft, though still unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE. Given this, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected from Lake Huron eastward into parts of New England late in the day. As these storms should be timed near peak heating, localized strong downbursts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible - mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features - and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the weaker wind field. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible - mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features - and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the weaker wind field. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible - mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features - and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the weaker wind field. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible - mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features - and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the weaker wind field. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible - mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features - and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the weaker wind field. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible - mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features - and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the weaker wind field. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible - mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features - and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the weaker wind field. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible - mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features - and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the weaker wind field. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible - mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features - and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the weaker wind field. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 months 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Monday across portions of the southern Great Basin and Four Corners regions. Mid-level flow over the Intermountain West will continue to diminish through Monday as the primary upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest ejects into the southern Canadian Prairies, and a weaker secondary low settles into the lower CO River Valley. This flow regime will maintain southwesterly winds across southern NV and much of the Four Corners region, but wind speeds should predominantly remain the in the 15-20 mph range. Gusts upwards of 25-30 mph are possible - mainly on the northern slopes of more prominent terrain features - and may support localized areas of critical conditions as RH values fall into the teens by peak heating. Fuels across the region will continue to support fire spread, but the overall fire weather concern should remain more limited compared to prior days given the weaker wind field. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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