Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... A prominent upper high will be centered over the Appalachians, providing hot conditions over much of the eastern CONUS. Early in the day, a shortwave trough will exit the far northern Plains, ejecting across Ontario. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will move from parts of CA into the Great Basin, within a broader upper trough. At the surface, High pressure will exist over much of the East beneath the upper ridge, though weak troughing will occur during the day over the Mid Atlantic. Another area of high pressure behind the northern Plains wave will push east into the upper MS Valley, with a cold front roughly from central WI into western KS by 00Z. A very moist air mass will exist east of this cold front, and, over much of the East. Strong to severe storms are most likely along the Plains front, although scattered storms will also be likely over the TN Valley and Mid South, though with less severe potential. Finally, isolated storms may occur over parts of the Appalachians beneath the upper High. ...Central Plains into the upper Great Lakes... Strong heating will occur ahead of the cold front, where dewpoints will range from the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This region will also be within a plume of midlevel moisture spreading northward west of the upper ridge. As such, the high PW air mass along with surface convergence near the front should easily support afternoon storms, most likely from WI southwestward to perhaps the OK/TX Panhandles by 00Z. Deep-layer shear and mean winds in general will not be very strong along the frontal zone, but perhaps a bit stronger over northern areas as the upper wave glances the area. The end result should be an elongated area of afternoon storms. Some of these storms may briefly contain marginal hail due to moderate instability and modest midlevel lapse rates, but storms will likely merge quickly over most of the area with strong to locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... A prominent upper high will be centered over the Appalachians, providing hot conditions over much of the eastern CONUS. Early in the day, a shortwave trough will exit the far northern Plains, ejecting across Ontario. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will move from parts of CA into the Great Basin, within a broader upper trough. At the surface, High pressure will exist over much of the East beneath the upper ridge, though weak troughing will occur during the day over the Mid Atlantic. Another area of high pressure behind the northern Plains wave will push east into the upper MS Valley, with a cold front roughly from central WI into western KS by 00Z. A very moist air mass will exist east of this cold front, and, over much of the East. Strong to severe storms are most likely along the Plains front, although scattered storms will also be likely over the TN Valley and Mid South, though with less severe potential. Finally, isolated storms may occur over parts of the Appalachians beneath the upper High. ...Central Plains into the upper Great Lakes... Strong heating will occur ahead of the cold front, where dewpoints will range from the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This region will also be within a plume of midlevel moisture spreading northward west of the upper ridge. As such, the high PW air mass along with surface convergence near the front should easily support afternoon storms, most likely from WI southwestward to perhaps the OK/TX Panhandles by 00Z. Deep-layer shear and mean winds in general will not be very strong along the frontal zone, but perhaps a bit stronger over northern areas as the upper wave glances the area. The end result should be an elongated area of afternoon storms. Some of these storms may briefly contain marginal hail due to moderate instability and modest midlevel lapse rates, but storms will likely merge quickly over most of the area with strong to locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to potentially severe storms are possible Monday from parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains. ...Synopsis... A prominent upper high will be centered over the Appalachians, providing hot conditions over much of the eastern CONUS. Early in the day, a shortwave trough will exit the far northern Plains, ejecting across Ontario. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will move from parts of CA into the Great Basin, within a broader upper trough. At the surface, High pressure will exist over much of the East beneath the upper ridge, though weak troughing will occur during the day over the Mid Atlantic. Another area of high pressure behind the northern Plains wave will push east into the upper MS Valley, with a cold front roughly from central WI into western KS by 00Z. A very moist air mass will exist east of this cold front, and, over much of the East. Strong to severe storms are most likely along the Plains front, although scattered storms will also be likely over the TN Valley and Mid South, though with less severe potential. Finally, isolated storms may occur over parts of the Appalachians beneath the upper High. ...Central Plains into the upper Great Lakes... Strong heating will occur ahead of the cold front, where dewpoints will range from the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This region will also be within a plume of midlevel moisture spreading northward west of the upper ridge. As such, the high PW air mass along with surface convergence near the front should easily support afternoon storms, most likely from WI southwestward to perhaps the OK/TX Panhandles by 00Z. Deep-layer shear and mean winds in general will not be very strong along the frontal zone, but perhaps a bit stronger over northern areas as the upper wave glances the area. The end result should be an elongated area of afternoon storms. Some of these storms may briefly contain marginal hail due to moderate instability and modest midlevel lapse rates, but storms will likely merge quickly over most of the area with strong to locally damaging gusts. ..Jewell.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated in southern New Mexico in alignment with latest trends. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to persist across portions of the Intermountain West where very dry/windy conditions have been prevalent over the past several days. ...Four Corners/Central Rockies... Early-morning surface observations reveal a cold front draped from southern WY southwestward to the CA coast. This front is forecast to stall as the attendant upper low over the western CONUS begins to de-amplify and multiple embedded perturbations lift into the northern Plains. This pattern will maintain moderate southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and central Rockies where another afternoon of RH minimums in the single digits to low teens is expected ahead of the front. Although sustained winds will be somewhat weaker compared to previous days, 15-20 mph winds are expected and will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are expected, especially across eastern UT into northwest CO and southern WY under a belt of stronger mid-level flow. ...Central High Plains... Dry and windy conditions are expected across eastern CO into adjacent portions of NE and KS behind a sharpening dryline this afternoon. Sustained winds between 20-25 mph are expected by late afternoon as RH values fall into the teens. Despite reasonably high confidence in the emergence of critical fire weather conditions, green grasses should modulate a more substantial fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1402 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 450... FOR NORTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1402 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...northwest MN and northeast ND Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450... Valid 221610Z - 221715Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 450 continues. SUMMARY...Marginal and isolated severe wind/hail threats appear to be diminishing into early afternoon across northwest Minnesota and northeast North Dakota. Sustained storm development farther south appears unlikely until late afternoon or later. DISCUSSION...Earlier convection has largely consolidated to one sustained strong storm across far northwest MN, producing a recent measured gust of 55 mph. This will pose a near-term threat until it shifts across the international border. Weak and increasingly elevated convection persists to its west across northeast ND. It is plausible that a cell or two could intensify and produce marginally severe hail before shifting into southeast MB. Sustained surface-based storm development appears unlikely through at least early afternoon along the southeast ND portion of the front, owing to the pronounced EML across the warm-moist sector. ..Grams.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF... LAT...LON 49509488 49219449 48839495 48369605 47999691 47909857 48189905 48759877 49109764 49479576 49509488 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today across the northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley, some of which could produce large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Storms associated with severe gusts and hail may also develop across parts of the Northeast, and in the southern and central Plains. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... A warm front extends northeast from a surface low over northern SD across northern MN and east across the northern Great Lakes. This warm front should lift north through the day, while a cold front extends southwest of the surface low into northeast CO. Thunderstorms over eastern ND/northwest MN have produced near severe gusts as they continue to move northeast towards the international border. Redevelopment of thunderstorms is anticipated towards late afternoon or early evening across eastern ND/western MN southward into eastern SD as a weak mid-level perturbation lifts northeast across the area, contributing large-scale ascent and weakening the capping inversion. These storms will move east/northeast within a strongly unstable air mass and include a mix of supercell and cluster modes with a risk for large to very large hail initially, and transition into an increasing wind threat with time. Tornado potential appears to be greatest over northern MN, where low-level SRH will be maximized. The potential for elevated, post-frontal thunderstorm development across the NE Panhandle will exist later this afternoon/evening, with storms moving east and posing a risk initially for severe hail. The severe wind potential will increase with eastward extent as storms congeal and tap greater surface instability farther east. ...Central/Southern High Plains... Low-level moisture advection and related airmass destabilization coupled with low-level convergence along the lee trough is expected to result in thunderstorm development from eastern CO/western KS through eastern NM and into far west TX. Vertical shear will be modest, likely resulting in predominantly outflow-dominant storm structures and the potential for damaging wind gusts. Some isolated hail is also possible with the strongest/more persistent updrafts. ...Northeast... Overall storm intensity along the western flank of outflow from the long-lived MCS remains sub severe, and have narrowed the Marginal and Slight Risk areas to along and immediately southwest of the convective line. Substantial diurnal heating of a very moist air mass, and 30-40 kts of effective shear, may support some severe potential as storms move generally southward along the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge. Isolated to widely scattered strong/severe wind gusts will be possible, in addition to isolated hail reports given seasonably steep mid-level lapse rates. ..Bunting/Squitieri.. 06/22/2025 Read more