Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs. Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time. ...D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday... Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs. Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time. ...D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday... Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs. Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time. ...D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday... Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs. Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time. ...D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday... Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs. Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time. ...D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday... Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs. Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time. ...D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday... Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs. Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time. ...D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday... Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs. Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time. ...D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday... Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...D4/Wednesday... Extended-range guidance generally indicates that the persistent upper ridge across the eastern CONUS will begin to dampen on Wednesday. Multiple low-amplitude midlevel shortwave troughs will move along the periphery of the upper ridge from the central/northern High Plains into the Great Lakes. Mid/upper-level flow will generally be rather weak, but may be locally stronger in the vicinity of any shortwave troughs. Some severe threat could develop where pockets of somewhat stronger flow overlap moderate to strong buoyancy along the periphery of the ridge. An MCS may develop late on D3/Tuesday and move across parts of the central Plains and Midwest into at least early Wednesday. This MCS could persist through the day, with additional development possible along an outflow-influenced front. Other strong to severe storms may again develop across parts of the central/northern High Plains. Confidence regarding the details of any organized severe threat is too low to delineate a 15% area at this time. ...D5/Thursday - D8/Sunday... Guidance generally suggests that the persistent upper ridge will continue to weaken with time, resulting in a more zonal pattern by the upcoming weekend. Stronger flow may become increasingly confined to the northern tier of states. This could lead to periodic severe threats across parts of the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and Northeast. One area of interest is across parts of the northern Plains Friday into Saturday. Some guidance takes a mid/upper-level shortwave trough from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Plains during this period, where it may impinge upon increasing low-level moisture and instability, resulting in potential for organized severe storms. Read more

MD 1398 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1398 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...Across portions of the Dakotas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 220727Z - 220930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may pose a severe hail risk through the early morning hours from central South Dakota into southern/southeast North Dakota. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Convection continues to develop across SD early this morning ahead of a weak mid-level impulse moving north/northeast across the Plains. Latest RAP forecast soundings suggests that near-surface parcels remain capped, and that much of this convection is rooted between 600-700 mb where CAPE values are roughly around 250 J/kg. However, cloud-top cooling noted over the past 30 minutes within a more persistent cell near Chamberlain, SD suggests that this cell is beginning to ingest parcels within the 850-700 mb layer where richer moisture is contributing to MUCAPE values of around 2000-3000 J/kg. Other storms across the region, such as the ones developing south of Bismark, ND, are beginning to display similar progressions. As this intensification occurs, cells may begin to more fully realize the kinematic environment characterized by 35-45 knots of effective bulk shear and become more organized, possibly evolving into isolated supercells with an attendant threat of large hail. In general, this threat is expected to remain sufficiently sparse/isolated to negate watch issuance, but some severe threat may linger through the early morning hours. ..Moore/Mosier.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 43359967 43949974 44589980 44879992 45020013 45140046 45270090 45360135 45480167 45950198 46350183 47090135 47570063 47770008 47769939 47689877 47579848 47389819 47159778 46759734 46389710 46019701 45599702 45289706 44979713 44589728 44289759 43989791 43589846 43319893 43209933 43189951 43209963 43359967 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ...Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ..Dean.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ...Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ..Dean.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ...Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ..Dean.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ...Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ..Dean.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ...Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ..Dean.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ...Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ..Dean.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ...Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ..Dean.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ...Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ..Dean.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ...Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ..Dean.. 06/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible Tuesday from eastern Wyoming into southwest South Dakota, the Nebraska Panhandle, and northeast Colorado. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from parts of the central Plains and Midwest into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Little change to the large-scale pattern is expected on Tuesday. An upper trough will remain in place over the West, while an expansive upper ridge will persist from the southern Plains into the eastern CONUS. A cold front will move southward across parts of the Northeast and New England. Farther west, an outflow-influenced front will be draped from central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the western portion of this front potentially moving northward as a warm front across the central/northern High Plains. ...Central/northern High Plains vicinity... A gradual increase in low-level moisture is expected into parts of the central/northern High Plains and adjacent high terrain areas on Tuesday. Moderate instability may develop by afternoon, with scattered storm development possible. This region will be on the periphery of stronger southwesterly flow aloft associated with the western trough. However, veering wind profiles will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, including potential for supercells capable of large hail, localized severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth is possible into the evening as convection moves into lower terrain, though the severe threat with this scenario is more uncertain. A Slight Risk has been added where wind profiles appear most favorable for supercells, from eastern WY into the central High Plains. ...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered diurnal storm development will again be possible from the central Plains into the Great Lakes, with the greatest coverage in the vicinity of the front. Guidance generally suggests that low/midlevel flow may be slightly weaker compared to D2/Monday, but moderate to strong buoyancy will still support some potential for strong to locally severe storms. Loosely organized cells/clusters will be capable of producing at least isolated damaging wind, and perhaps some hail. ...Lower Great Lakes into New England... Strong instability will likely develop along/south of the advancing cold front from the lower Great Lakes region into New England. A shortwave trough moving eastward across northern Ontario/Quebec will result in some dampening of the upper ridge in this region, though the strongest deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent is expected to be displaced north of the front. Effective shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, though coverage of storm development remains uncertain at this time. A Marginal Risk has been included for this area, and greater severe probabilities may eventually be needed if trends support more than isolated storm coverage. ..Dean.. 06/22/2025 Read more