Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0449 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Weaker flow with the upper-low across the West will bring much more confined and terrain driven dry/breezy conditions through early next week. A high amplitude ridge building across the eastern US will bring very warm temperatures and drying across much of the central/southern Plains into the East before precipitation potential returns late in the period. ...Day 3/Tuesday... An upper-level trough will persist over the western US Tuesday, with a jet streak traversing the northern Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across the Upper Colorado River Basin and northern Arizona and into southeastern Wyoming where dry/windy conditions will overlap receptive fuels. ...Day 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... A series of shortwaves late in the period may bring an increase in winds across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D5/Thursday and D6/Friday, with potential for highlights to be included if confidence increases. More zonal flow returns atop building high pressure across the US By D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday. This will keep winds light and fire concerns low but temperatures will be increasing. ..Thornton.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1406 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST NE AND SOUTHEAST SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1406 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...southwest to northeast NE and southeast SD Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 221959Z - 222200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe wind/hail threats will increase as a corridor of scattered thunderstorms form ahead of a dryline, along a slow-moving to quasi-stationary front. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Cumulus development is underway along the slow-moving to quasi-stationary front that arcs across southeast SD into southwest NE, ahead of a dryline that has mixed across northwest KS and far southwest NE. Initial storm development should occur ahead of the dryline/front intersection into central NE where MLCIN is minimized, with additional storms rippling north-northeast along the front by early evening. Nearly unidirectional south-southwesterlies and uniform speeds with height will curtail overall effective bulk shear. But this should help enhance growth into multicell clusters favorable for producing sporadic severe gusts. Severe hail potential may largely be confined to initial storm formation. ..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD... LAT...LON 40600129 41830003 42769901 43349863 43919807 43919706 43259707 42589770 41169901 40340062 40600129 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1404 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHWEST MN AND EASTERN ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1404 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...northwest MN and eastern ND Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 221934Z - 222130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...The tornado threat with a few supercells will increase during the late afternoon to early evening as surface-based storms develop across the Red River Valley through northwest Minnesota. A tornado watch issuance is expected. DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is occurring across the Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota in the wake of earlier elevated thunderstorms. While another round of elevated thunderstorms has formed well west into the post-frontal airmass across central ND, this lobe of large-scale ascent will overspread the downstream surface front and trough in the next couple hours. 19Z mesoanalysis suggests that MLCIN has weakened. Surface-based thunderstorm development by 21-22Z is likely. Weak easterly components to the low-level flow between the surface front and trough will support favorable hodograph curvature as flow veers to the south and south-southwest aloft. In conjunction with optimal temperature-dew point spreads, a corridor of supercell tornado potential is anticipated. Otherwise, large hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible as storms likely become confined closer to the international border this evening. ..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 49329393 48619355 46459670 46289757 46309795 46599838 47139817 48869639 49359504 49329393 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1405 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1405 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221950Z - 222115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for a few instances of severe wind/hail will increase through the afternoon. The severe threat should be isolated enough to preclude a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have recently shown an uptick in intensity across portions of central NM into the TX Trans Pecos, with a cell in Lincoln County, NM showing 40 dBZ echoes at 50 kft. MLCINH is eroding due to strong diurnal heating, which is promoting robust boundary-layer mixing, with 0-3 km lapse rates already approaching the 9-10 C/km range in spots (per 19Z mesoanalysis). Additional storms should continue to develop and intensify this afternoon given persistent diurnal heating, with MLCAPE likely exceeding 1000 J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak, and given marginal MLCAPE, most storms should be pulse cellular or weakly multicellular. Given steep low-level lapse rates, rapid evaporative cooling with stronger storm cores may result in severe gusts and perhaps a brief instance of hail. Since the severe threat should be isolated, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Bunting.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 32810584 34100543 35280483 36230395 36680286 36370216 35720188 34000217 32110303 31180336 30460388 30390462 30860549 31450601 32810584 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0453 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0453 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0453 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0453 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0453 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0453 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 453 SEVERE TSTM NE SD 222100Z - 230400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 453 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop rapidly and move northeast across the watch area through this evening with a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. The potential for corridors of more concentrated wind damage may increase towards this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Mitchell SD to 60 miles south southeast of North Platte NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 451...WW 452... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Bunting Read more

MD 1403 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE NE PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHEAST WY
Mesoscale Discussion 1403 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025 Areas affected...the NE Panhandle and far southeast WY Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 221850Z - 222045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Large hail and strong gusts will be possible as a few supercells likely develop across the Nebraska Panhandle vicinity. Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely. DISCUSSION...High-based cumulus development is underway along and west of a quasi-stationary front arcing across far southeast WY. CYS VWP data has sampled substantial speed shear above the lowest km amid a nearly unidirectional southwesterly profile. This will support potential for multiple supercells this afternoon within the downstream post-frontal regime across the NE Panhandle. Most of this area should remain along the western periphery of weak surface-based buoyancy where surface dew points can hold in the mid to upper 50s to the north of the west/east-oriented instability axis along the I-80 corridor. Continued negative low-level theta-e advection from the north-northwest will be a limiting factor to the northern extent of the severe threat and should result in a confined corridor of realized severe. With robust mid-level UH signals across the 12Z HREF and recent HRRR/RRFS guidance, the expectation is that a few supercells will be capable of large hail and locally strong gusts. ..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 43140192 42670146 42070173 41430263 41070414 41370496 41730499 42550429 43170274 43140192 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0452 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0452 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0452 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more