Severe Storms

WW 457 SEVERE TSTM KS 232210Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Kansas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to pose mainly a damaging-wind threat this evening across northeast Kansas. The stronger multicells will be capable of 60-70 mph gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 35 miles south of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 455...WW 456... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1423 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1423 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska into far northwest Missouri and southern Iowa Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456... Valid 232323Z - 240130Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of corridors of higher severe wind potential may be emerging across far northwest Missouri and central Iowa ahead of two organizing clusters. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection continues to erupt along and ahead of a convectively augmented cold front from far southeast NE into far northwest MO and southern/central IA. Most of this activity has remained fairly transient, but has a history of producing small swaths of severe winds (including a 62 mph gust at KDSM). To the south and east of the Des Moines, IA area, convection has begun to consolidate along the cold front with echo tops occasionally reaching up to 50 kft at times. Further intensification appears likely over the next hour or so as this band approaches a regional MLCAPE maximum near 3500 J/kg. Additional cold pool amalgamation coupled with intensifying convection should promote a relative increase in severe wind potential. Further southwest across the NE/IA/MO tri-state area, a secondary band of convection has begun to slowly organize along a consolidated outflow boundary based on regional velocity imagery. Additionally, GOES IR imagery show steady cloud top cooling indicative of intensification, and cold pool temperature deficits are approaching 20 F, suggesting a deep cold pool is beginning to develop. These trends suggest that a strong to severe line may emerge over the next hour or so downstream along the MO/IA border. ..Moore.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 40189628 40629555 42259246 42419198 42399143 42309107 42089100 41729109 41419129 41129198 40079419 39929459 39889498 39829606 39879632 40039643 40189628 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1422 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455... Valid 232309Z - 240045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455 continues. SUMMARY...A well-organized bowing cluster of severe storms will continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts this evening. An isolated gust to 75 mph is also possible. DISCUSSION...Across central WI, a cluster of thunderstorms has shown continued intensification/organization early this evening within WW455. North of KMSN, single site radar imagery shows an accelerating bowing cluster with recent reports of damage. In addition to increasingly strong radar/satellite features, area observations show outflow temperatures 20-25 F cooler behind line, indicative of a well-formed and deep cold pool. These convective trends within a very buoyant/moderately sheared environment strongly suggest a continued threat for wind damage downstream across central and eastern WI over the next couple of hours. Additionally, an isolated significant gust to 75 mph is possible given the increased forward speed and strong downdraft potential at the apex of the bowing cluster. Given the continued potential for damaging gusts, WW455 will be expanded locally ahead of the bow. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43269070 43339054 43599025 44188956 44398912 44398792 44298746 43968769 43328778 42958781 42688774 42768992 42919045 43269070 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1421 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1421 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...Northwest Oklahoma into central Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 232145Z - 232345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to pose an isolated severe wind and hail risk through the early evening hours. This threat should generally remain sufficiently localized to preclude watch issuance, but a watch is possible if a more focus corridor of severe thunderstorms becomes apparent. DISCUSSION...Over the past two hours, scattered convection has developed along and ahead of a weak cold front from northeast KS into far northeast NM. Despite a very buoyant air mass ahead of the front (characterized by MLCAPE values upwards of 2000-3000 J/kg), stronger flow aloft remains largely displaced to the northwest behind the front. This is limiting deep-layer wind shear to around 20-25 knots for much of the region, which should favor a mix of loosely organized cells/clusters with occasionally robust updrafts and/or outflow. Recent convective trends bear this out with only sporadic reports of large hail and severe gusts emanating from mostly transient convection. While isolated instances of severe hail and/or severe winds will remain possible across a broad region, the meager deep-layer shear and scattered nature of the convection limits confidence in a more widespread severe threat. Nonetheless, this environment could support a somewhat more organized cluster or two with a more focused severe wind threat if sufficient cold pool amalgamation can occur. While this does not appear imminent, convective trends will continue to be monitored and watch issuance is possible if this scenario begins to emerge. ..Moore/Smith.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...AMA... LAT...LON 37579666 36789823 36269956 36150054 36200125 36730177 37280167 37680115 37810107 39239923 39769832 39939784 39949730 39819679 39639636 39289604 38919579 38519572 38019598 37579666 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 456 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-011-013-015-017-019-023-029-039-049-053-055-061-071- 075-077-083-095-097-099-103-105-107-113-117-121-123-125-127-129- 137-145-153-157-159-169-171-173-175-181-232340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS BENTON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR DELAWARE DUBUQUE FREMONT GRUNDY GUTHRIE HARDIN IOWA JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY TAMA TAYLOR UNION WARREN MOC005-087-147-227-232340- MO Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 456 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-011-013-015-017-019-023-029-039-049-053-055-061-071- 075-077-083-095-097-099-103-105-107-113-117-121-123-125-127-129- 137-145-153-157-159-169-171-173-175-181-232340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS BENTON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CASS CLARKE DALLAS DECATUR DELAWARE DUBUQUE FREMONT GRUNDY GUTHRIE HARDIN IOWA JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY TAMA TAYLOR UNION WARREN MOC005-087-147-227-232340- MO Read more

WW 456 SEVERE TSTM IA MO NE 232140Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 440 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern into Central and Southwest Iowa Far Northwest Missouri Far Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 440 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to evolve over the late afternoon and persist into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear sufficient for multicellular storm organization and ample buoyancy, will combine to promote 55-65 mph gusts with the stronger storms. This activity will likely diminish in intensity by mid to late evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles northeast of Cedar Rapids IA to 45 miles west northwest of Falls City NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 455... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Smith Read more

MD 1418 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 1418 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...parts of northwestern Maine Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232008Z - 232245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered strong to severe storms, including a supercell or two, may cross the St. Lawrence Valley and at least approach parts of northwestern Maine prior to 8 PM EDT, accompanied by the risk for large hail and potential for a tornado. Although it still appears unlikely that a severe weather watch will be needed, trends will continue to be monitored for this possibility. DISCUSSION...Near/just ahead of a mid-level perturbation associated with a now dissipated thunderstorm cluster, isolated supercell development appears underway across parts of southeastern Quebec, roughly 100 miles or so to the northwest of Quebec City. Activity appears to be forming just to the south of a warm frontal zone, where surface dew points are near 70 F, and low-level hodographs have become sizable beneath 30 kt west-southwesterly flow around 850 mb. This is occurring beneath 40-50 kt west-northwesterly 500 mb flow, around the northeastern periphery of the prominent mid-level high centered near the southern Appalachians, contributing to a southeastward propagation toward the St. Lawrence Valley, near Quebec City. Additional thunderstorm development appears possible over the next few hours in closer proximity to the frontal zone to the north. East of the St. Lawrence Valley, into northern New England, warming and moistening of the boundary layer is ongoing along and south of the northward developing warm frontal zone. Forecast soundings from the Rapid Refresh suggest that this may include surface dew points increasing to near or above 70 F, in the presence of enlarging, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, across parts of northwestern Maine prior to 00Z. Although the onset of nightfall contributes to some uncertainty concerning the extent of boundary-layer destabilization, there appears at least some potential for the maintenance of supercells posing a risk for severe hail, and potential for a tornado or two. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR... LAT...LON 48077206 48317112 47126858 46007040 46627112 47607240 48077206 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1420 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1420 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0336 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern/eastern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455... Valid 232036Z - 232230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455 continues. SUMMARY...Another small, organized cluster of storms posing a risk for damaging wind gusts may evolve east of La Crosse toward the Oshkosh vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT, along outflow trailing the lead cluster now spreading south through southeast of Green Bay. DISCUSSION...One small, organized convective cluster, with an embedded meso-beta scale cyclonic circulation, has already evolved and produced a narrow corridor of severe and/or damaging gusts near and east of the Wisconsin Rapids area. This may continue near/south and southeast of the Green Bay vicinity, before diminishing while spreading into Lake Michigan within the next hour or so. Meanwhile, thunderstorm activity now forming upstream may undergo a similar evolution along the trailing outflow from the lead cluster, east of La Crosse toward the Oshkosh vicinity during the next couple of hours. Inhibition has become increasingly negligible in the presence of peak heating, with latest mesoanalysis indicating CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg, in the presence of at least modest shear beneath 40+ kt westerly 500 mb flow. ..Kerr.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43569134 43599033 44238913 44518748 43888731 43328847 42868978 42769077 42999141 43569134 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW VOK TO 20 NE MTW TO 45 NNE ESC TO 75 NW ANJ. ..LYONS..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MQT...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-043-065-191-232340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CLAYTON FAYETTE WINNESHIEK MIC095-153-232340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LUCE SCHOOLCRAFT MNC055-232340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW VOK TO 20 NE MTW TO 45 NNE ESC TO 75 NW ANJ. ..LYONS..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MQT...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-043-065-191-232340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CLAYTON FAYETTE WINNESHIEK MIC095-153-232340- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LUCE SCHOOLCRAFT MNC055-232340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON Read more

WW 455 SEVERE TSTM IA MI MN WI LM LS 231815Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Central Upper Michigan Extreme southeast Minnesota Southwest, central and northeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan Lake Superior * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms, some with bowing characteristics, are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and persist into this evening. Damaging winds of 60-70 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter may also occur with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles northeast of Escanaba MI to 55 miles south southwest of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0457 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0457 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 457 SEVERE TSTM KS 232210Z - 240300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 510 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Kansas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 510 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to pose mainly a damaging-wind threat this evening across northeast Kansas. The stronger multicells will be capable of 60-70 mph gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles west northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 35 miles south of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 455...WW 456... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24020. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z ...Synopsis... A deamplifying upper-level trough over the Great Basin and diminishing mid-level flow will usher in lighter winds for the Four Corners region and Southwest for Day 3/Wednesday. An upper-level trough will gradually translate eastward along the Northern Tier from the Pacific Northwest on Day 5/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 8/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. ...Day 3/Wednesday... Enhanced downslope winds and drying aided by accelerating mid-level flow ahead of an upper-level trough is expected across northeastern California/northwestern Nevada Wednesday. However, fuels remain marginal in terms of spread potential precluding critical probabilities at this time. ...Day 4-7/Thursday-Sunday... With active wave pattern farther north, muted mid and upper-level flow and weak surface pressure gradients will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. ...Day 8/Monday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates another upper-level trough encroaching upon the Pacific Coast Day 8/Monday, potentially ushering in fire weather concerns across the Great Basin (dry and breezy ahead of the trough) as well as dry lightning potential across the Oregon Cascades. Considerable uncertainty exists in the magnitude of moisture ahead of the trough, precluding introduction of dry thunderstorm probabilities in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more