Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening from the southern and central Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes. A few severe gusts will also be possible in parts of northern Maine. ...Great Lakes/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/ Southern and Central Plains... A large mid-level anticyclone is in place over much of the eastern U.S. today, with southwest mid-level flow over the central states. At the surface, a cold front is located from north-central Kansas northeastward to southern Wisconsin.. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are mostly in the 70s F, which is contributing to a southwest-to-northeast corridor of moderate instability. The RAP currently is estimating MLCAPE along this corridor in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range. Along the instability axis, RAP forecast soundings and regional 00Z soundings suggest that 0-3 km lapse rates are in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. This should support a potential for isolated severe wind gusts, associated with the more intense multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to persist for a few more hours. Further southwest into the southern and central High Plains, scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. A moist airmass is present across much of the region, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. The latest RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range in most areas. This, combined with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, will support a marginal threat for severe gusts early this evening. ...Northern Maine... On water vapor imagery, flow is west-northwesterly across much of the Northeast, with a subtle shortwave trough moving through the flow. Associated with the trough, a line of thunderstorms is ongoing in southern Quebec. This line will move east-southeastward across central and northern Maine this evening. Ahead of the line, surface dewpoints are in the upper 60s and lower 70s F, which is contributing to weak instability. In addition, RAP forecast soundings across northern Maine early this evening, have some directional shear in the low-levels, with 25 to 35 knots of mid-level flow. This may be enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts along the leading edge of the line during the early to mid evening. ..Broyles.. 06/24/2025 Read more

MD 1422 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 455... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1422 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455... Valid 232309Z - 240045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 455 continues. SUMMARY...A well-organized bowing cluster of severe storms will continue to pose a risk for damaging wind gusts this evening. An isolated gust to 75 mph is also possible. DISCUSSION...Across central WI, a cluster of thunderstorms has shown continued intensification/organization early this evening within WW455. North of KMSN, single site radar imagery shows an accelerating bowing cluster with recent reports of damage. In addition to increasingly strong radar/satellite features, area observations show outflow temperatures 20-25 F cooler behind line, indicative of a well-formed and deep cold pool. These convective trends within a very buoyant/moderately sheared environment strongly suggest a continued threat for wind damage downstream across central and eastern WI over the next couple of hours. Additionally, an isolated significant gust to 75 mph is possible given the increased forward speed and strong downdraft potential at the apex of the bowing cluster. Given the continued potential for damaging gusts, WW455 will be expanded locally ahead of the bow. ..Lyons.. 06/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 43269070 43339054 43599025 44188956 44398912 44398792 44298746 43968769 43328778 42958781 42688774 42768992 42919045 43269070 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE ALO TO 25 SE VOK TO 35 SW OSH TO 30 W GRB TO 35 W MBL. ..LYONS..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MQT...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC043-065-240140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAYTON FAYETTE WIC015-021-023-025-027-039-043-047-049-065-071-087-089-103-111- 117-131-135-139-240140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN LAKE IOWA LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE RICHLAND SAUK SHEBOYGAN WASHINGTON WAUPACA WINNEBAGO LMZ543-643-644-240140- Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE ALO TO 25 SE VOK TO 35 SW OSH TO 30 W GRB TO 35 W MBL. ..LYONS..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MQT...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC043-065-240140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAYTON FAYETTE WIC015-021-023-025-027-039-043-047-049-065-071-087-089-103-111- 117-131-135-139-240140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN LAKE IOWA LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE RICHLAND SAUK SHEBOYGAN WASHINGTON WAUPACA WINNEBAGO LMZ543-643-644-240140- Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE ALO TO 25 SE VOK TO 35 SW OSH TO 30 W GRB TO 35 W MBL. ..LYONS..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MQT...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC043-065-240140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAYTON FAYETTE WIC015-021-023-025-027-039-043-047-049-065-071-087-089-103-111- 117-131-135-139-240140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN LAKE IOWA LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE RICHLAND SAUK SHEBOYGAN WASHINGTON WAUPACA WINNEBAGO LMZ543-643-644-240140- Read more

WW 0455 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE ALO TO 25 SE VOK TO 35 SW OSH TO 30 W GRB TO 35 W MBL. ..LYONS..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MQT...GRB...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 455 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC043-065-240140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAYTON FAYETTE WIC015-021-023-025-027-039-043-047-049-065-071-087-089-103-111- 117-131-135-139-240140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CALUMET COLUMBIA CRAWFORD DANE DODGE FOND DU LAC GRANT GREEN LAKE IOWA LAFAYETTE MANITOWOC OUTAGAMIE OZAUKEE RICHLAND SAUK SHEBOYGAN WASHINGTON WAUPACA WINNEBAGO LMZ543-643-644-240140- Read more

WW 455 SEVERE TSTM IA MI MN WI LM LS 231815Z - 240200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 115 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Central Upper Michigan Extreme southeast Minnesota Southwest, central and northeast Wisconsin Lake Michigan Lake Superior * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 115 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms, some with bowing characteristics, are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon and persist into this evening. Damaging winds of 60-70 mph will be the main threat, though isolated large hail of 1-1.5 inches in diameter may also occur with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles northeast of Escanaba MI to 55 miles south southwest of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0456 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW OMA TO 40 NE SDA TO 25 ENE DSM TO 25 SSW ALO TO 50 NNE ALO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423 ..MOORE..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 456 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-011-013-019-039-053-055-061-071-095-097-099-103-105-107- 113-117-121-123-125-129-137-145-153-157-159-171-173-175-181- 240140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENTON BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN CLARKE DECATUR DELAWARE DUBUQUE FREMONT IOWA JACKSON JASPER JOHNSON JONES KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAMA TAYLOR UNION WARREN MOC003-005-075-081-087-147-227-240140- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0457 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 457 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..06/23/25 ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 457 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC005-013-027-029-041-043-061-085-087-117-127-131-143-149-157- 161-177-197-201-240140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more