Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

MD 1426 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA...SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 1426 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Areas affected...portions of far northeast Illinois into northern Indiana...southern Lower Michigan...and extreme northwest Ohio Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241736Z - 241930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk for isolated damaging gusts will increase through the afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are developing along the periphery of an upper ridge, where moderate buoyancy (e.g. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) has materialized given robust boundary layer heating. Along the periphery of this ridge is modestly strong westerly flow aloft, contributing to 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, storms that continue to intensify through the afternoon will likely become multicells or transient supercells with an isolated damaging gust threat. Since the overall severe threat should remain sparse and localized, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT... LAT...LON 42138886 42738608 42858381 42838263 42758254 42618256 42338291 42168305 41938309 41758305 41648326 41478399 41218498 41138606 41058703 41118783 41248838 41398881 42138886 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0458 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain fairly localized on Wednesday across the country. The upper trough currently migrating into the lower Colorado River Valley is expected to begin de-amplifying and drifting into the northern Rockies through the day Wednesday. This will weaken winds across much of the Four Corners/central Rockies where dry/breezy conditions have been prevalent for the past several days. Little moisture recovery is anticipated, so areas that typically see terrain-enhanced winds may experience periods of elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday afternoon. Currently, this appears most probable from northeast AZ into eastern UT, but confidence in the coverage/duration of elevated conditions is too limited for highlights. Further to the west, zonal flow over the northern Sierra Nevada is expected to increase as the weakening upper trough departs the Great Basin. This will promote a downslope flow regime across northeast NV and adjacent portions of CA and OR. Model guidance continues to show uncertainty regarding the strength of the downslope winds and potential for fire weather concerns. More aggressive solutions hint that areas of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are possible. Regardless, ERCs near or below the 80th percentile should help modulate a more robust fire weather ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Jun 24 18:45:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts are possible over much of the Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The CONUS pattern will feature a trough across the western CONUS and a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS Wednesday morning. This pattern will deamplify during the period. A strong mid-level jet streak will extend from northern Ontario to the Northeast with a weak upper-low over Florida. A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon/evening. ...Central/northern High Plains... A weak lee trough will extend from southeast Montana to northeast Colorado. Weak to moderate instability will develop along this zone during the afternoon and evening. Shear will be modest (25-30 knots) with a few multicell clusters possible. Isolated large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Midwest into the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop south of a warm front across the Midwest. A belt of 50+ knot mid-level flow is forecast to overspread the warm sector and provide sufficient shear for storm organization. In addition, some stronger low-level shear will develop as a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon/evening. The stronger/more organized storms in the area could have some tornado threat, particularly if any backed flow can develop. At this time, the threat is expected too low for higher severe weather probabilities. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Additional storms are likely to develop within a moderate to strongly unstable environment along a frontal zone from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Shear will be mostly weak which should limit the overall threat. However, strong instability and a very moist environment may support some threat for wet microbursts. ...Carolinas into the Southeast... Extreme instability is expected to develop from the Carolinas into the Southeast amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and temperatures in the 90s. This extreme instability and scattered to widespread storm development should be sufficient for a damaging wind threat. In addition, stronger mid-level northeasterly flow is expected across the eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia. This may result in even greater storm organization and clustering where the stronger shear is present. Some large hail is possible with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft and moderate to potentially strong instability is expected to develop across the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday. Shear is forecast around 20 to 25 knots which may result in a few multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. The greater threat should be mostly focused on the west coast where the sea-breeze convergence is stronger and shear is slightly greater amid westerly low-level flow. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts are possible over much of the Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The CONUS pattern will feature a trough across the western CONUS and a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS Wednesday morning. This pattern will deamplify during the period. A strong mid-level jet streak will extend from northern Ontario to the Northeast with a weak upper-low over Florida. A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon/evening. ...Central/northern High Plains... A weak lee trough will extend from southeast Montana to northeast Colorado. Weak to moderate instability will develop along this zone during the afternoon and evening. Shear will be modest (25-30 knots) with a few multicell clusters possible. Isolated large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Midwest into the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop south of a warm front across the Midwest. A belt of 50+ knot mid-level flow is forecast to overspread the warm sector and provide sufficient shear for storm organization. In addition, some stronger low-level shear will develop as a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon/evening. The stronger/more organized storms in the area could have some tornado threat, particularly if any backed flow can develop. At this time, the threat is expected too low for higher severe weather probabilities. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Additional storms are likely to develop within a moderate to strongly unstable environment along a frontal zone from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Shear will be mostly weak which should limit the overall threat. However, strong instability and a very moist environment may support some threat for wet microbursts. ...Carolinas into the Southeast... Extreme instability is expected to develop from the Carolinas into the Southeast amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and temperatures in the 90s. This extreme instability and scattered to widespread storm development should be sufficient for a damaging wind threat. In addition, stronger mid-level northeasterly flow is expected across the eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia. This may result in even greater storm organization and clustering where the stronger shear is present. Some large hail is possible with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft and moderate to potentially strong instability is expected to develop across the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday. Shear is forecast around 20 to 25 knots which may result in a few multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. The greater threat should be mostly focused on the west coast where the sea-breeze convergence is stronger and shear is slightly greater amid westerly low-level flow. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe wind gusts are possible over much of the Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible from the northern High Plains eastward toward the Mid Atlantic. ...Synopsis... The CONUS pattern will feature a trough across the western CONUS and a strong ridge across the eastern CONUS Wednesday morning. This pattern will deamplify during the period. A strong mid-level jet streak will extend from northern Ontario to the Northeast with a weak upper-low over Florida. A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon/evening. ...Central/northern High Plains... A weak lee trough will extend from southeast Montana to northeast Colorado. Weak to moderate instability will develop along this zone during the afternoon and evening. Shear will be modest (25-30 knots) with a few multicell clusters possible. Isolated large hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary hazards. ...Midwest into the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is expected to develop south of a warm front across the Midwest. A belt of 50+ knot mid-level flow is forecast to overspread the warm sector and provide sufficient shear for storm organization. In addition, some stronger low-level shear will develop as a low-level jet strengthens during the afternoon/evening. The stronger/more organized storms in the area could have some tornado threat, particularly if any backed flow can develop. At this time, the threat is expected too low for higher severe weather probabilities. ...Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic... Additional storms are likely to develop within a moderate to strongly unstable environment along a frontal zone from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic. Shear will be mostly weak which should limit the overall threat. However, strong instability and a very moist environment may support some threat for wet microbursts. ...Carolinas into the Southeast... Extreme instability is expected to develop from the Carolinas into the Southeast amid mid to upper 70s dewpoints and temperatures in the 90s. This extreme instability and scattered to widespread storm development should be sufficient for a damaging wind threat. In addition, stronger mid-level northeasterly flow is expected across the eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia. This may result in even greater storm organization and clustering where the stronger shear is present. Some large hail is possible with damaging wind gusts as the primary threat. ...Florida... Cool temperatures aloft and moderate to potentially strong instability is expected to develop across the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday. Shear is forecast around 20 to 25 knots which may result in a few multicell clusters capable of damaging wind gusts. The greater threat should be mostly focused on the west coast where the sea-breeze convergence is stronger and shear is slightly greater amid westerly low-level flow. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more