Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND NORTHEAST MONTANA VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are possible from the central Plains to Lower Michigan, over parts of the Southeast, and over parts of Montana on Thursday. Scattered damaging gusts appears to be the main concern. ...Synopsis... Somewhat zonal flow is expected across the northern CONUS on Friday with a broad ridge across much of the southern CONUS. A moderate mid-level jet streak will move across Montana with relatively weak flow across the remainder of the CONUS. A weak upper low will drift slowly northeast across the southeastern CONUS. ...Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast... A broad area of moderate instability is forecast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on Friday. Shear is expected to be very weak through the period, but moderate instability and relatively steep mid-level lapse rates beneath the upper low will provide a thermodynamic environment favorable for some damaging wind gusts. More focused areas of strong to severe storms may exist near outflow boundaries from D2/Thursday convection. ...Central Plains to the western Great Lakes... Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop along a frontal zone from Kansas to Wisconsin on Friday afternoon/evening. Shear is expected to remain weak (20 to 25 knots), but strong instability will support the threat for some damaging wind gusts. ...Northeast Montana Vicinity... Moderate mid-level flow is expected to overspread northeast Montana on Friday where a deeply mixed boundary layer (above 3km) is forecast. While instability will not be that great due to limited moisture, it should be sufficient for a few storms. Moderate shear (25 to 30 knots) and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support a threat for some severe wind gusts Friday afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 06/24/2025 Read more