Severe Storms

MD 1427 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND ERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Areas affected...parts of north central Colorado and ern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241835Z - 242030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development is likely to commence along the eastern slopes of the Front Range and Laramie Mountains during the next few hours. This probably will include a few supercells impacting the Greater Denver vicinity through 3-4 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Downstream of slow moving mid-level troughing across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin, southeasterly low-level flow is maintaining seasonably moist boundary-layer air across the high plains into the eastern slopes of the Front Range and Laramie Mountains. Beneath relatively warm mid-level air to the east of the higher terrain, associated low-level cloud cover is slowing destabilization to the east/northeast of the Laramies through the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. However, across the Front Range, near the Greater Denver vicinity, insolation is more rapidly eroding inhibition and beginning to increase mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. With additional surface heating, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that thunderstorms may begin initiating along the eastern slopes of the higher terrain, particularly near the Denver area, within the next hour or two, before gradually increasing and intensifying through 21-22Z. In the presence of moderate to strong southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear appears more than sufficient to support supercells. These may pose a risk for large hail, and at least some potential for brief tornadoes, as they attempt to propagate eastward off the higher terrain. Due to the warm mid-level environment near/just above 700 mb, stronger storms might be, at least initially, slow to propagate away from the higher terrain. ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 43260560 42470476 41370437 40330385 39230445 40240534 41990558 43110642 43260560 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z ...Synopsis... An weak upper-level trough will move across the Pacific Northwest Day 3/Thursday into the Great Lakes by Day 7/Monday. An amplifying ridge across the Intermountain West early next week will promote lighter surface winds but well above normal temperatures for much of the Western U.S. Weak troughing will remain off the West Coast, with potential for locally breezy conditions and mix of wet/dry thunderstorms. ...Day 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... Generally weak upper flow with the western trough will promote lighter, mainly terrain driven winds across much of the Intermountain West and Southwest late this week, into early next week. A few hours of Elevated to locally Critical conditions will be possible across portions of the Columbia Basin into the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Thursday and D4/Friday. ...Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday... A weak trough will push the western ridge eastward across the Divide and Rockies early next week. There is some potential for increasing winds but also moisture for thunderstorms across the Pacific Northwest. For now, confidence in moisture and position of the trough remains too low to include probabilities. ..Thornton.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more