Severe Storms

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging winds are forecast over parts of the northern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A low amplitude trough will move across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Friday, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds into the Dakotas. As this occurs, a surface trough will develop over the western Dakotas, providing a focus for thunderstorms during the day. To the east, a weaker wave will move from lower MI into the lower Great Lakes, with a surface low enhancing convergence/lift. The air mass will remain moist and unstable over much of the central and eastern CONUS, supporting scattered storms over much of the area. The strongest instability is expected over the northern Plains in advance of the upper system. Otherwise, a weak upper low will remain over GA/FL providing cool midlevel temperatures and aiding daytime storm development. ...Northern Plains... Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface trough, with scattered areas of storms developing from northeast CO into western NE and from the western into the central Dakotas. Supercells are most likely across the Dakotas beneath the stronger flow aloft, with the strongest cells producing very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south across NE, CO and KS, deep mixed layers should favor strong outflow and localized wind damage. Storms may increase again during the evening over eastern ND and northern MN with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb late. ...Southeast and Mid Atlantic... A weak surface trough will develop from VA across the Carolinas and into GA with strong heating. A moist and unstable air mass will again favor areas of thunderstorms beneath the upper ridge. Lapse rates aloft and therefore total instability will not be as strong as previous days, but widely scattered strong to damaging gusts may still occur during the afternoon across the entire region. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging winds are forecast over parts of the northern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A low amplitude trough will move across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Friday, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds into the Dakotas. As this occurs, a surface trough will develop over the western Dakotas, providing a focus for thunderstorms during the day. To the east, a weaker wave will move from lower MI into the lower Great Lakes, with a surface low enhancing convergence/lift. The air mass will remain moist and unstable over much of the central and eastern CONUS, supporting scattered storms over much of the area. The strongest instability is expected over the northern Plains in advance of the upper system. Otherwise, a weak upper low will remain over GA/FL providing cool midlevel temperatures and aiding daytime storm development. ...Northern Plains... Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface trough, with scattered areas of storms developing from northeast CO into western NE and from the western into the central Dakotas. Supercells are most likely across the Dakotas beneath the stronger flow aloft, with the strongest cells producing very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south across NE, CO and KS, deep mixed layers should favor strong outflow and localized wind damage. Storms may increase again during the evening over eastern ND and northern MN with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb late. ...Southeast and Mid Atlantic... A weak surface trough will develop from VA across the Carolinas and into GA with strong heating. A moist and unstable air mass will again favor areas of thunderstorms beneath the upper ridge. Lapse rates aloft and therefore total instability will not be as strong as previous days, but widely scattered strong to damaging gusts may still occur during the afternoon across the entire region. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging winds are forecast over parts of the northern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A low amplitude trough will move across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Friday, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds into the Dakotas. As this occurs, a surface trough will develop over the western Dakotas, providing a focus for thunderstorms during the day. To the east, a weaker wave will move from lower MI into the lower Great Lakes, with a surface low enhancing convergence/lift. The air mass will remain moist and unstable over much of the central and eastern CONUS, supporting scattered storms over much of the area. The strongest instability is expected over the northern Plains in advance of the upper system. Otherwise, a weak upper low will remain over GA/FL providing cool midlevel temperatures and aiding daytime storm development. ...Northern Plains... Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface trough, with scattered areas of storms developing from northeast CO into western NE and from the western into the central Dakotas. Supercells are most likely across the Dakotas beneath the stronger flow aloft, with the strongest cells producing very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south across NE, CO and KS, deep mixed layers should favor strong outflow and localized wind damage. Storms may increase again during the evening over eastern ND and northern MN with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb late. ...Southeast and Mid Atlantic... A weak surface trough will develop from VA across the Carolinas and into GA with strong heating. A moist and unstable air mass will again favor areas of thunderstorms beneath the upper ridge. Lapse rates aloft and therefore total instability will not be as strong as previous days, but widely scattered strong to damaging gusts may still occur during the afternoon across the entire region. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection, will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone. Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail. Convection will likely grow upscale into a line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish by late evening. ...Southeast today... Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY, a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and weaken gradually through tonight. Widespread convection is still ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively widespread convective overturning and associated outflow. Remnant outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging downbursts compared to Wednesday. Given the mesoscale complexity of the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook. However, some part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations. Though vertical shear will be weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume now across west TX. Vertical shear will be weak through this corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection, will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone. Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail. Convection will likely grow upscale into a line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish by late evening. ...Southeast today... Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY, a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and weaken gradually through tonight. Widespread convection is still ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively widespread convective overturning and associated outflow. Remnant outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging downbursts compared to Wednesday. Given the mesoscale complexity of the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook. However, some part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations. Though vertical shear will be weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume now across west TX. Vertical shear will be weak through this corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection, will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone. Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail. Convection will likely grow upscale into a line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish by late evening. ...Southeast today... Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY, a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and weaken gradually through tonight. Widespread convection is still ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively widespread convective overturning and associated outflow. Remnant outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging downbursts compared to Wednesday. Given the mesoscale complexity of the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook. However, some part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations. Though vertical shear will be weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume now across west TX. Vertical shear will be weak through this corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection, will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone. Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail. Convection will likely grow upscale into a line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish by late evening. ...Southeast today... Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY, a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and weaken gradually through tonight. Widespread convection is still ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively widespread convective overturning and associated outflow. Remnant outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging downbursts compared to Wednesday. Given the mesoscale complexity of the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook. However, some part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations. Though vertical shear will be weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume now across west TX. Vertical shear will be weak through this corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection, will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone. Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail. Convection will likely grow upscale into a line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish by late evening. ...Southeast today... Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY, a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and weaken gradually through tonight. Widespread convection is still ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively widespread convective overturning and associated outflow. Remnant outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging downbursts compared to Wednesday. Given the mesoscale complexity of the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook. However, some part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations. Though vertical shear will be weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume now across west TX. Vertical shear will be weak through this corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection, will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone. Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail. Convection will likely grow upscale into a line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish by late evening. ...Southeast today... Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY, a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and weaken gradually through tonight. Widespread convection is still ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively widespread convective overturning and associated outflow. Remnant outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging downbursts compared to Wednesday. Given the mesoscale complexity of the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook. However, some part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations. Though vertical shear will be weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume now across west TX. Vertical shear will be weak through this corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection, will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone. Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail. Convection will likely grow upscale into a line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish by late evening. ...Southeast today... Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY, a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and weaken gradually through tonight. Widespread convection is still ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively widespread convective overturning and associated outflow. Remnant outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging downbursts compared to Wednesday. Given the mesoscale complexity of the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook. However, some part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations. Though vertical shear will be weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume now across west TX. Vertical shear will be weak through this corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon... A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection, will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone. Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail. Convection will likely grow upscale into a line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish by late evening. ...Southeast today... Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY, a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and weaken gradually through tonight. Widespread convection is still ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively widespread convective overturning and associated outflow. Remnant outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging downbursts compared to Wednesday. Given the mesoscale complexity of the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook. However, some part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations. Though vertical shear will be weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening... Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume now across west TX. Vertical shear will be weak through this corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025 Read more

WW 0462 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ATL TO 20 ESE LGC TO 40 ESE CSG TO 35 SSW MCN TO 50 NE ABY TO 50 WSW VDI TO 35 SSW VDI TO 25 SSE AYS TO 40 WSW JAX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451 ..WENDT..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-031-037-045-051-061-067-069-081-087-101-109-113- 123-260740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS COFFEE COOSA DALE ELMORE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA GAC003-007-017-019-027-037-053-061-065-069-071-075-081-087-093- 095-099-101-131-145-149-155-173-177-185-197-201-205-215-239-243- 249-253-259-261-273-275-277-285-287-299-307-315-321-260740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BAKER BEN HILL Read more

WW 0462 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW ATL TO 20 ESE LGC TO 40 ESE CSG TO 35 SSW MCN TO 50 NE ABY TO 50 WSW VDI TO 35 SSW VDI TO 25 SSE AYS TO 40 WSW JAX. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1451 ..WENDT..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...JAX...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 462 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC005-011-017-031-037-045-051-061-067-069-081-087-101-109-113- 123-260740- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBOUR BULLOCK CHAMBERS COFFEE COOSA DALE ELMORE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON LEE MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA GAC003-007-017-019-027-037-053-061-065-069-071-075-081-087-093- 095-099-101-131-145-149-155-173-177-185-197-201-205-215-239-243- 249-253-259-261-273-275-277-285-287-299-307-315-321-260740- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATKINSON BAKER BEN HILL Read more

WW 462 SEVERE TSTM AL GA CW 260200Z - 260800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 462 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 1000 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...The environment will support a relatively long-duration potential of severe storms into the overnight, with a loosely organized complex of storms moving generally south-southwestward tonight out of South Carolina into Georgia, while additional storms continue across southwest Georgia and southeast Alabama. Wind damage is the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Auburn AL to 35 miles north northeast of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 459...WW 460...WW 461... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 07020. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ..Moore.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ..Moore.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ..Moore.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ..Moore.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ..Moore.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ..Moore.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more