Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, and perhaps one or two small organizing clusters, may impact parts of the northern Great Plains late Friday afternoon into Friday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Although a mid to upper low is likely to linger across parts of the Southeast, perhaps migrating slowly northward across the northern Florida into Georgia vicinity, modest subtropical ridging at mid-levels will generally prevail across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S. through this period. Models indicate that modest mid-level westerlies will remain confined to the northern tier, with one embedded short wave trough forecast to slowly progress across the Great Lakes region. A couple of, perhaps, more subtle perturbations within a broader cyclonic regime are forecast to progress east-northeastward near and north of the Montana/North Dakota international border vicinity. In lower levels, a surface cold front, in the wake of a digging short wave trough well offshore of the northern Atlantic coast, may make further southward progress through portions of the northern Mid Atlantic states, before retreating northeastward late Friday through Friday night. Upstream, another cold front, likely into the upper Great Lakes vicinity and through much of the northern Great Plains by 12Z Friday, is forecast to continue to advance eastward across the Great Lakes through the remainder of the period, while the cool air gradually modifies from west to east across the Dakotas. In between and south of these boundaries, seasonably moist conditions, including upper 60s to 70+ F dew points, appear likely to persist across most areas east of the high plains. ...Northern Great Plains... Models indicate that low-level warming and moistening across the western into central Dakotas may contribute to strong potential instability by Friday afternoon, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting east of the northern Rockies, ahead of the broad approaching upstream mid-level troughing. This destabilization will become focused east of the modestly deep lee surface trough axis, along a developing warm frontal zone aided by strengthening differential surface heating. The northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air is forecast to nose across western through central South Dakota by early Friday evening. Lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the edge of this air mass may provide the focus for an upscale growing cluster of storms across north central South Dakota, or perhaps south central North Dakota, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet Friday evening. This would likely tend to propagate east-southeastward overnight, beneath strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb). Otherwise, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells, may initiate near/east of the lee trough during the late afternoon into evening across the western Dakotas, and perhaps parts of north central Nebraska into northeastern Colorado, though this is a bit more uncertain due to potentially stronger mid-level inhibition. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Latest model output indicates that strengthening thunderstorm development is possible in a narrow pre-frontal corridor across parts of southwestern Ontario and southeastern Lower Michigan into northwestern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, near or after 28/00Z. Although this is after peak diurnal heating, moderately large residual CAPE, in the presence of southwesterly deep-layer mean flow strengthening to 20-30 kt, might become supportive of convection capable of producing a few locally strong to severe wind gusts, before storms weaken late Friday evening. ...Appalachians into Southeast... In the presence of relatively weak mid-level inhibition, forcing for ascent aided by orography and inland advancing sea breezes may support considerable diurnal thunderstorm development, as insolation within a seasonably moist boundary-layer contributes to moderate potential instability. Stronger convection will probably pose a risk for locally damaging downbursts, before activity weakens early Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, and perhaps one or two small organizing clusters, may impact parts of the northern Great Plains late Friday afternoon into Friday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Although a mid to upper low is likely to linger across parts of the Southeast, perhaps migrating slowly northward across the northern Florida into Georgia vicinity, modest subtropical ridging at mid-levels will generally prevail across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S. through this period. Models indicate that modest mid-level westerlies will remain confined to the northern tier, with one embedded short wave trough forecast to slowly progress across the Great Lakes region. A couple of, perhaps, more subtle perturbations within a broader cyclonic regime are forecast to progress east-northeastward near and north of the Montana/North Dakota international border vicinity. In lower levels, a surface cold front, in the wake of a digging short wave trough well offshore of the northern Atlantic coast, may make further southward progress through portions of the northern Mid Atlantic states, before retreating northeastward late Friday through Friday night. Upstream, another cold front, likely into the upper Great Lakes vicinity and through much of the northern Great Plains by 12Z Friday, is forecast to continue to advance eastward across the Great Lakes through the remainder of the period, while the cool air gradually modifies from west to east across the Dakotas. In between and south of these boundaries, seasonably moist conditions, including upper 60s to 70+ F dew points, appear likely to persist across most areas east of the high plains. ...Northern Great Plains... Models indicate that low-level warming and moistening across the western into central Dakotas may contribute to strong potential instability by Friday afternoon, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting east of the northern Rockies, ahead of the broad approaching upstream mid-level troughing. This destabilization will become focused east of the modestly deep lee surface trough axis, along a developing warm frontal zone aided by strengthening differential surface heating. The northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air is forecast to nose across western through central South Dakota by early Friday evening. Lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the edge of this air mass may provide the focus for an upscale growing cluster of storms across north central South Dakota, or perhaps south central North Dakota, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet Friday evening. This would likely tend to propagate east-southeastward overnight, beneath strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb). Otherwise, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells, may initiate near/east of the lee trough during the late afternoon into evening across the western Dakotas, and perhaps parts of north central Nebraska into northeastern Colorado, though this is a bit more uncertain due to potentially stronger mid-level inhibition. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Latest model output indicates that strengthening thunderstorm development is possible in a narrow pre-frontal corridor across parts of southwestern Ontario and southeastern Lower Michigan into northwestern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, near or after 28/00Z. Although this is after peak diurnal heating, moderately large residual CAPE, in the presence of southwesterly deep-layer mean flow strengthening to 20-30 kt, might become supportive of convection capable of producing a few locally strong to severe wind gusts, before storms weaken late Friday evening. ...Appalachians into Southeast... In the presence of relatively weak mid-level inhibition, forcing for ascent aided by orography and inland advancing sea breezes may support considerable diurnal thunderstorm development, as insolation within a seasonably moist boundary-layer contributes to moderate potential instability. Stronger convection will probably pose a risk for locally damaging downbursts, before activity weakens early Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, and perhaps one or two small organizing clusters, may impact parts of the northern Great Plains late Friday afternoon into Friday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Although a mid to upper low is likely to linger across parts of the Southeast, perhaps migrating slowly northward across the northern Florida into Georgia vicinity, modest subtropical ridging at mid-levels will generally prevail across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S. through this period. Models indicate that modest mid-level westerlies will remain confined to the northern tier, with one embedded short wave trough forecast to slowly progress across the Great Lakes region. A couple of, perhaps, more subtle perturbations within a broader cyclonic regime are forecast to progress east-northeastward near and north of the Montana/North Dakota international border vicinity. In lower levels, a surface cold front, in the wake of a digging short wave trough well offshore of the northern Atlantic coast, may make further southward progress through portions of the northern Mid Atlantic states, before retreating northeastward late Friday through Friday night. Upstream, another cold front, likely into the upper Great Lakes vicinity and through much of the northern Great Plains by 12Z Friday, is forecast to continue to advance eastward across the Great Lakes through the remainder of the period, while the cool air gradually modifies from west to east across the Dakotas. In between and south of these boundaries, seasonably moist conditions, including upper 60s to 70+ F dew points, appear likely to persist across most areas east of the high plains. ...Northern Great Plains... Models indicate that low-level warming and moistening across the western into central Dakotas may contribute to strong potential instability by Friday afternoon, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting east of the northern Rockies, ahead of the broad approaching upstream mid-level troughing. This destabilization will become focused east of the modestly deep lee surface trough axis, along a developing warm frontal zone aided by strengthening differential surface heating. The northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air is forecast to nose across western through central South Dakota by early Friday evening. Lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the edge of this air mass may provide the focus for an upscale growing cluster of storms across north central South Dakota, or perhaps south central North Dakota, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet Friday evening. This would likely tend to propagate east-southeastward overnight, beneath strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb). Otherwise, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells, may initiate near/east of the lee trough during the late afternoon into evening across the western Dakotas, and perhaps parts of north central Nebraska into northeastern Colorado, though this is a bit more uncertain due to potentially stronger mid-level inhibition. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Latest model output indicates that strengthening thunderstorm development is possible in a narrow pre-frontal corridor across parts of southwestern Ontario and southeastern Lower Michigan into northwestern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, near or after 28/00Z. Although this is after peak diurnal heating, moderately large residual CAPE, in the presence of southwesterly deep-layer mean flow strengthening to 20-30 kt, might become supportive of convection capable of producing a few locally strong to severe wind gusts, before storms weaken late Friday evening. ...Appalachians into Southeast... In the presence of relatively weak mid-level inhibition, forcing for ascent aided by orography and inland advancing sea breezes may support considerable diurnal thunderstorm development, as insolation within a seasonably moist boundary-layer contributes to moderate potential instability. Stronger convection will probably pose a risk for locally damaging downbursts, before activity weakens early Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, and perhaps one or two small organizing clusters, may impact parts of the northern Great Plains late Friday afternoon into Friday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Although a mid to upper low is likely to linger across parts of the Southeast, perhaps migrating slowly northward across the northern Florida into Georgia vicinity, modest subtropical ridging at mid-levels will generally prevail across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S. through this period. Models indicate that modest mid-level westerlies will remain confined to the northern tier, with one embedded short wave trough forecast to slowly progress across the Great Lakes region. A couple of, perhaps, more subtle perturbations within a broader cyclonic regime are forecast to progress east-northeastward near and north of the Montana/North Dakota international border vicinity. In lower levels, a surface cold front, in the wake of a digging short wave trough well offshore of the northern Atlantic coast, may make further southward progress through portions of the northern Mid Atlantic states, before retreating northeastward late Friday through Friday night. Upstream, another cold front, likely into the upper Great Lakes vicinity and through much of the northern Great Plains by 12Z Friday, is forecast to continue to advance eastward across the Great Lakes through the remainder of the period, while the cool air gradually modifies from west to east across the Dakotas. In between and south of these boundaries, seasonably moist conditions, including upper 60s to 70+ F dew points, appear likely to persist across most areas east of the high plains. ...Northern Great Plains... Models indicate that low-level warming and moistening across the western into central Dakotas may contribute to strong potential instability by Friday afternoon, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting east of the northern Rockies, ahead of the broad approaching upstream mid-level troughing. This destabilization will become focused east of the modestly deep lee surface trough axis, along a developing warm frontal zone aided by strengthening differential surface heating. The northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air is forecast to nose across western through central South Dakota by early Friday evening. Lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the edge of this air mass may provide the focus for an upscale growing cluster of storms across north central South Dakota, or perhaps south central North Dakota, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet Friday evening. This would likely tend to propagate east-southeastward overnight, beneath strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb). Otherwise, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells, may initiate near/east of the lee trough during the late afternoon into evening across the western Dakotas, and perhaps parts of north central Nebraska into northeastern Colorado, though this is a bit more uncertain due to potentially stronger mid-level inhibition. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Latest model output indicates that strengthening thunderstorm development is possible in a narrow pre-frontal corridor across parts of southwestern Ontario and southeastern Lower Michigan into northwestern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, near or after 28/00Z. Although this is after peak diurnal heating, moderately large residual CAPE, in the presence of southwesterly deep-layer mean flow strengthening to 20-30 kt, might become supportive of convection capable of producing a few locally strong to severe wind gusts, before storms weaken late Friday evening. ...Appalachians into Southeast... In the presence of relatively weak mid-level inhibition, forcing for ascent aided by orography and inland advancing sea breezes may support considerable diurnal thunderstorm development, as insolation within a seasonably moist boundary-layer contributes to moderate potential instability. Stronger convection will probably pose a risk for locally damaging downbursts, before activity weakens early Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA INTO PARTS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, and perhaps one or two small organizing clusters, may impact parts of the northern Great Plains late Friday afternoon into Friday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and wind. ...Discussion... Although a mid to upper low is likely to linger across parts of the Southeast, perhaps migrating slowly northward across the northern Florida into Georgia vicinity, modest subtropical ridging at mid-levels will generally prevail across much of the central and southern tier of the U.S. through this period. Models indicate that modest mid-level westerlies will remain confined to the northern tier, with one embedded short wave trough forecast to slowly progress across the Great Lakes region. A couple of, perhaps, more subtle perturbations within a broader cyclonic regime are forecast to progress east-northeastward near and north of the Montana/North Dakota international border vicinity. In lower levels, a surface cold front, in the wake of a digging short wave trough well offshore of the northern Atlantic coast, may make further southward progress through portions of the northern Mid Atlantic states, before retreating northeastward late Friday through Friday night. Upstream, another cold front, likely into the upper Great Lakes vicinity and through much of the northern Great Plains by 12Z Friday, is forecast to continue to advance eastward across the Great Lakes through the remainder of the period, while the cool air gradually modifies from west to east across the Dakotas. In between and south of these boundaries, seasonably moist conditions, including upper 60s to 70+ F dew points, appear likely to persist across most areas east of the high plains. ...Northern Great Plains... Models indicate that low-level warming and moistening across the western into central Dakotas may contribute to strong potential instability by Friday afternoon, beneath warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting east of the northern Rockies, ahead of the broad approaching upstream mid-level troughing. This destabilization will become focused east of the modestly deep lee surface trough axis, along a developing warm frontal zone aided by strengthening differential surface heating. The northern periphery of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air is forecast to nose across western through central South Dakota by early Friday evening. Lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection on the edge of this air mass may provide the focus for an upscale growing cluster of storms across north central South Dakota, or perhaps south central North Dakota, aided by a modestly strengthening low-level jet Friday evening. This would likely tend to propagate east-southeastward overnight, beneath strengthening westerly mid/upper flow (including 30-40+ kt at 500 mb). Otherwise, widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells, may initiate near/east of the lee trough during the late afternoon into evening across the western Dakotas, and perhaps parts of north central Nebraska into northeastern Colorado, though this is a bit more uncertain due to potentially stronger mid-level inhibition. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Latest model output indicates that strengthening thunderstorm development is possible in a narrow pre-frontal corridor across parts of southwestern Ontario and southeastern Lower Michigan into northwestern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, near or after 28/00Z. Although this is after peak diurnal heating, moderately large residual CAPE, in the presence of southwesterly deep-layer mean flow strengthening to 20-30 kt, might become supportive of convection capable of producing a few locally strong to severe wind gusts, before storms weaken late Friday evening. ...Appalachians into Southeast... In the presence of relatively weak mid-level inhibition, forcing for ascent aided by orography and inland advancing sea breezes may support considerable diurnal thunderstorm development, as insolation within a seasonably moist boundary-layer contributes to moderate potential instability. Stronger convection will probably pose a risk for locally damaging downbursts, before activity weakens early Friday evening. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more