Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-262140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-262140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- 041-043-510-262140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-262140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-262140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- 041-043-510-262140- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY Read more

MD 1456 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LOWER MI INTO PARTS OF IN/OH...WESTERN PA...NORTHERN WV
Mesoscale Discussion 1456 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...Southern lower MI into parts of IN/OH...western PA...northern WV Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261807Z - 262000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms with localized damaging winds are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Multiple storm clusters are ongoing early this afternoon across southern lower MI, with other recent development into northeast OH and northern IN. The southern lower MI storms are accompanied by gradually expanding outflow, which will eventually move into parts of northeast IN and northern OH. Additional storm development may occur near this outflow this afternoon as it spreads east-southeastward. Deep-layer shear is weak, but modest west-northwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer may support occasional loosely organized clusters. A 44 kt gust was recently observed in Toledo, OH, and strong buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates will continue to support a threat of strong gusts and localized damaging wind through the afternoon. Farther south, deep-layer shear is even weaker into parts of central IN, central/southern OH, and southwest PA. However, a favorable downburst environment is in place across this region, with strong buoyancy, relatively large PW, and steepening low-level lapse rates. A threat for locally damaging wind will accompany the strongest storms. ..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR... IND...LOT... LAT...LON 41758648 42148510 42108336 41828092 41758020 41647955 41337900 40677904 40107947 39368101 38488243 39118562 40788700 41048703 41368686 41758648 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

MD 1455 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...DELAWARE...DC...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...northern Virginia...Maryland...Delaware...DC...eastern West Virginia...southern Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261754Z - 262000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of damaging winds possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity has begun to initiate across portions of the Appalachians. This activity is expected to continue to expand in coverage through the afternoon/evening. The environment to the east is hot and unstable (with MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg) and temperatures in the upper 80s to 90s. Despite the weak flow aloft and weak shear, steep low-level lapse rates (around 7.5-8 C/km) and moist profiles will support potential for wet downbursts and damaging outflow winds. This area will be monitored for watch potential through the afternoon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK... LAT...LON 38957561 37447702 37567833 37957905 38227927 38847910 39967829 40917720 41327647 41147576 40397519 39057557 38957561 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected across central and southwest Wyoming Friday. A broad increase in westerly winds at mid-levels in combination with a dry boundary layer will support an overlap of 15-20 mph surface winds and relative humidity of 10-15 percent Friday afternoon. Fuels remain drier west of the Continental Divide owing to rainfall deficits but heightened west-southwest winds should be enough to pose at least a broad elevated fire weather threat across central Wyoming. Otherwise, forecast (see below) remains on track with no significant changes to Elevated highlights. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across parts of central to southwest Wyoming Friday afternoon. Strengthening zonal flow over the northern Rockies will promote a more pronounced surface mass response across the northern High Plains on Friday compared to today/Thursday. Consequently, low-level winds will likely be slightly stronger across a broad swath of the eastern Great Basin and parts of the Four Corners region. In general, most locations from eastern NV into northern AZ, UT, southern ID, and WY will see breezy conditions with wind speeds generally in the mid teens. Across southwest to central WY, downslope flow into the WY Basin and in the lee of the Wind River Range will regionally augment surface winds to near 20 mph. Deep mixing will promote frequent gusts up to 25-30 mph by peak heating as RH values fall into the teens. Several hours of elevated conditions appear likely, and periods of critical conditions are possible. Fuels across much of WY are not as dry compared to locations southwest, but several hours of dry/windy conditions should promote adequate drying of dead finer fuels to support the fire weather concern. An expansion of the Elevated risk area appears possible if confidence in sustained/widespread 15+ mph winds increases across portions of the Great Basin/Four Corners region where fuels remain very dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more