Severe Storms

WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE TOL TO 20 NNW DTW TO 45 ENE BAX. ..THOMPSON..06/27/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC099-115-125-147-151-163-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ443-463-464-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more

WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE TOL TO 20 NNW DTW TO 45 ENE BAX. ..THOMPSON..06/27/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC099-115-125-147-151-163-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ443-463-464-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more

WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE TOL TO 20 NNW DTW TO 45 ENE BAX. ..THOMPSON..06/27/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC099-115-125-147-151-163-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ443-463-464-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0467 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0468 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0469 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0469 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An mid-level trough will progress eastward into the Great Lakes region early next week (Day 4/Monday) while a broad ridge builds over the Intermountain West, the latter of which will supply much of the West with above normal temperatures, aiding in fuel curing/drying. An upper-level trough will bring a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of northern California/south-central Oregon Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as well as aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture from the south into much of the Intermountain West late next week for Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday... Primary fire weather concern lies over northeastern California and interior portions of Oregon, along and east of the Cascades as the upper-level trough impinges into the West Coast. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will transport mid and upper-level moisture into the region beginning on Day 3/Sunday, promoting increasing elevated instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Above normal temperatures through the weekend will further dry fuels aiding in ignition efficiency for the Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday events. A 10 percent critical area for dry thunderstorms was maintained with thunderstorm threat shifting mainly into eastern Oregon by Tuesday. As the trough axis moves east of the Cascades, a drier downslope flow pattern emerges by Day 6/Wednesday, likely impacting potential holdover fires. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... Advancing monsoon moisture under the upper-level ridge and daytime heating/instability will support daily showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across much of the Southwest and Intermountain West through midweek. Residence time of monsoon moisture and associated daytime showers and thunderstorms along the western periphery of the deeper moisture plume could be limited giving rise to dry thunderstorm/new ignition concerns over dry fuels, with another potential upper-level trough coming into the Western U.S. by the end of the week. Longer term ensemble model guidance does not invoke high forecast certainty regarding monsoon moisture plume evolution, precluding introduction of critical probabilities for this time frame. ..Williams.. 06/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An mid-level trough will progress eastward into the Great Lakes region early next week (Day 4/Monday) while a broad ridge builds over the Intermountain West, the latter of which will supply much of the West with above normal temperatures, aiding in fuel curing/drying. An upper-level trough will bring a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of northern California/south-central Oregon Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as well as aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture from the south into much of the Intermountain West late next week for Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday... Primary fire weather concern lies over northeastern California and interior portions of Oregon, along and east of the Cascades as the upper-level trough impinges into the West Coast. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will transport mid and upper-level moisture into the region beginning on Day 3/Sunday, promoting increasing elevated instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Above normal temperatures through the weekend will further dry fuels aiding in ignition efficiency for the Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday events. A 10 percent critical area for dry thunderstorms was maintained with thunderstorm threat shifting mainly into eastern Oregon by Tuesday. As the trough axis moves east of the Cascades, a drier downslope flow pattern emerges by Day 6/Wednesday, likely impacting potential holdover fires. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... Advancing monsoon moisture under the upper-level ridge and daytime heating/instability will support daily showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across much of the Southwest and Intermountain West through midweek. Residence time of monsoon moisture and associated daytime showers and thunderstorms along the western periphery of the deeper moisture plume could be limited giving rise to dry thunderstorm/new ignition concerns over dry fuels, with another potential upper-level trough coming into the Western U.S. by the end of the week. Longer term ensemble model guidance does not invoke high forecast certainty regarding monsoon moisture plume evolution, precluding introduction of critical probabilities for this time frame. ..Williams.. 06/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An mid-level trough will progress eastward into the Great Lakes region early next week (Day 4/Monday) while a broad ridge builds over the Intermountain West, the latter of which will supply much of the West with above normal temperatures, aiding in fuel curing/drying. An upper-level trough will bring a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of northern California/south-central Oregon Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as well as aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture from the south into much of the Intermountain West late next week for Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday... Primary fire weather concern lies over northeastern California and interior portions of Oregon, along and east of the Cascades as the upper-level trough impinges into the West Coast. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will transport mid and upper-level moisture into the region beginning on Day 3/Sunday, promoting increasing elevated instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Above normal temperatures through the weekend will further dry fuels aiding in ignition efficiency for the Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday events. A 10 percent critical area for dry thunderstorms was maintained with thunderstorm threat shifting mainly into eastern Oregon by Tuesday. As the trough axis moves east of the Cascades, a drier downslope flow pattern emerges by Day 6/Wednesday, likely impacting potential holdover fires. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... Advancing monsoon moisture under the upper-level ridge and daytime heating/instability will support daily showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across much of the Southwest and Intermountain West through midweek. Residence time of monsoon moisture and associated daytime showers and thunderstorms along the western periphery of the deeper moisture plume could be limited giving rise to dry thunderstorm/new ignition concerns over dry fuels, with another potential upper-level trough coming into the Western U.S. by the end of the week. Longer term ensemble model guidance does not invoke high forecast certainty regarding monsoon moisture plume evolution, precluding introduction of critical probabilities for this time frame. ..Williams.. 06/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An mid-level trough will progress eastward into the Great Lakes region early next week (Day 4/Monday) while a broad ridge builds over the Intermountain West, the latter of which will supply much of the West with above normal temperatures, aiding in fuel curing/drying. An upper-level trough will bring a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of northern California/south-central Oregon Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as well as aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture from the south into much of the Intermountain West late next week for Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday... Primary fire weather concern lies over northeastern California and interior portions of Oregon, along and east of the Cascades as the upper-level trough impinges into the West Coast. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will transport mid and upper-level moisture into the region beginning on Day 3/Sunday, promoting increasing elevated instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Above normal temperatures through the weekend will further dry fuels aiding in ignition efficiency for the Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday events. A 10 percent critical area for dry thunderstorms was maintained with thunderstorm threat shifting mainly into eastern Oregon by Tuesday. As the trough axis moves east of the Cascades, a drier downslope flow pattern emerges by Day 6/Wednesday, likely impacting potential holdover fires. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... Advancing monsoon moisture under the upper-level ridge and daytime heating/instability will support daily showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across much of the Southwest and Intermountain West through midweek. Residence time of monsoon moisture and associated daytime showers and thunderstorms along the western periphery of the deeper moisture plume could be limited giving rise to dry thunderstorm/new ignition concerns over dry fuels, with another potential upper-level trough coming into the Western U.S. by the end of the week. Longer term ensemble model guidance does not invoke high forecast certainty regarding monsoon moisture plume evolution, precluding introduction of critical probabilities for this time frame. ..Williams.. 06/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An mid-level trough will progress eastward into the Great Lakes region early next week (Day 4/Monday) while a broad ridge builds over the Intermountain West, the latter of which will supply much of the West with above normal temperatures, aiding in fuel curing/drying. An upper-level trough will bring a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of northern California/south-central Oregon Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as well as aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture from the south into much of the Intermountain West late next week for Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday... Primary fire weather concern lies over northeastern California and interior portions of Oregon, along and east of the Cascades as the upper-level trough impinges into the West Coast. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will transport mid and upper-level moisture into the region beginning on Day 3/Sunday, promoting increasing elevated instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Above normal temperatures through the weekend will further dry fuels aiding in ignition efficiency for the Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday events. A 10 percent critical area for dry thunderstorms was maintained with thunderstorm threat shifting mainly into eastern Oregon by Tuesday. As the trough axis moves east of the Cascades, a drier downslope flow pattern emerges by Day 6/Wednesday, likely impacting potential holdover fires. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... Advancing monsoon moisture under the upper-level ridge and daytime heating/instability will support daily showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across much of the Southwest and Intermountain West through midweek. Residence time of monsoon moisture and associated daytime showers and thunderstorms along the western periphery of the deeper moisture plume could be limited giving rise to dry thunderstorm/new ignition concerns over dry fuels, with another potential upper-level trough coming into the Western U.S. by the end of the week. Longer term ensemble model guidance does not invoke high forecast certainty regarding monsoon moisture plume evolution, precluding introduction of critical probabilities for this time frame. ..Williams.. 06/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An mid-level trough will progress eastward into the Great Lakes region early next week (Day 4/Monday) while a broad ridge builds over the Intermountain West, the latter of which will supply much of the West with above normal temperatures, aiding in fuel curing/drying. An upper-level trough will bring a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of northern California/south-central Oregon Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as well as aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture from the south into much of the Intermountain West late next week for Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday... Primary fire weather concern lies over northeastern California and interior portions of Oregon, along and east of the Cascades as the upper-level trough impinges into the West Coast. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will transport mid and upper-level moisture into the region beginning on Day 3/Sunday, promoting increasing elevated instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Above normal temperatures through the weekend will further dry fuels aiding in ignition efficiency for the Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday events. A 10 percent critical area for dry thunderstorms was maintained with thunderstorm threat shifting mainly into eastern Oregon by Tuesday. As the trough axis moves east of the Cascades, a drier downslope flow pattern emerges by Day 6/Wednesday, likely impacting potential holdover fires. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... Advancing monsoon moisture under the upper-level ridge and daytime heating/instability will support daily showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across much of the Southwest and Intermountain West through midweek. Residence time of monsoon moisture and associated daytime showers and thunderstorms along the western periphery of the deeper moisture plume could be limited giving rise to dry thunderstorm/new ignition concerns over dry fuels, with another potential upper-level trough coming into the Western U.S. by the end of the week. Longer term ensemble model guidance does not invoke high forecast certainty regarding monsoon moisture plume evolution, precluding introduction of critical probabilities for this time frame. ..Williams.. 06/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An mid-level trough will progress eastward into the Great Lakes region early next week (Day 4/Monday) while a broad ridge builds over the Intermountain West, the latter of which will supply much of the West with above normal temperatures, aiding in fuel curing/drying. An upper-level trough will bring a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of northern California/south-central Oregon Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as well as aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture from the south into much of the Intermountain West late next week for Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday... Primary fire weather concern lies over northeastern California and interior portions of Oregon, along and east of the Cascades as the upper-level trough impinges into the West Coast. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will transport mid and upper-level moisture into the region beginning on Day 3/Sunday, promoting increasing elevated instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Above normal temperatures through the weekend will further dry fuels aiding in ignition efficiency for the Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday events. A 10 percent critical area for dry thunderstorms was maintained with thunderstorm threat shifting mainly into eastern Oregon by Tuesday. As the trough axis moves east of the Cascades, a drier downslope flow pattern emerges by Day 6/Wednesday, likely impacting potential holdover fires. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... Advancing monsoon moisture under the upper-level ridge and daytime heating/instability will support daily showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across much of the Southwest and Intermountain West through midweek. Residence time of monsoon moisture and associated daytime showers and thunderstorms along the western periphery of the deeper moisture plume could be limited giving rise to dry thunderstorm/new ignition concerns over dry fuels, with another potential upper-level trough coming into the Western U.S. by the end of the week. Longer term ensemble model guidance does not invoke high forecast certainty regarding monsoon moisture plume evolution, precluding introduction of critical probabilities for this time frame. ..Williams.. 06/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 051200Z ...Synopsis... An mid-level trough will progress eastward into the Great Lakes region early next week (Day 4/Monday) while a broad ridge builds over the Intermountain West, the latter of which will supply much of the West with above normal temperatures, aiding in fuel curing/drying. An upper-level trough will bring a dry thunderstorm threat to portions of northern California/south-central Oregon Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday as well as aid in ushering in deeper monsoon moisture from the south into much of the Intermountain West late next week for Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday. ...Days 3-6/Sunday-Wednesday... Primary fire weather concern lies over northeastern California and interior portions of Oregon, along and east of the Cascades as the upper-level trough impinges into the West Coast. Southerly flow ahead of the trough will transport mid and upper-level moisture into the region beginning on Day 3/Sunday, promoting increasing elevated instability and steeper mid-level lapse rates. Above normal temperatures through the weekend will further dry fuels aiding in ignition efficiency for the Days 4-5/Monday-Tuesday events. A 10 percent critical area for dry thunderstorms was maintained with thunderstorm threat shifting mainly into eastern Oregon by Tuesday. As the trough axis moves east of the Cascades, a drier downslope flow pattern emerges by Day 6/Wednesday, likely impacting potential holdover fires. ...Days 7-8/Thursday-Friday... Advancing monsoon moisture under the upper-level ridge and daytime heating/instability will support daily showers and thunderstorms over higher terrain across much of the Southwest and Intermountain West through midweek. Residence time of monsoon moisture and associated daytime showers and thunderstorms along the western periphery of the deeper moisture plume could be limited giving rise to dry thunderstorm/new ignition concerns over dry fuels, with another potential upper-level trough coming into the Western U.S. by the end of the week. Longer term ensemble model guidance does not invoke high forecast certainty regarding monsoon moisture plume evolution, precluding introduction of critical probabilities for this time frame. ..Williams.. 06/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon/evening across the Dakotas and Nebraska, where very large hail, severe outflow winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Occasional wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Indiana into southeast Lower Michigan. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced risk over parts of central ND -- driven by 30-percent hail probabilities. Based on the latest high-resolution guidance and observations, confidence has increased that several semi-discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail will evolve along the northern periphery of strong to extreme surface-based buoyancy and very favorable deep-layer shear into tonight. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the outlook. For information on the severe risk in Lower MI and northern IN, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466. ..Weinman.. 06/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025/ ...Dakotas/NE/MN... Water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough moving across MT. As this feature overspreads the northern Plains this afternoon/evening, scattered thunderstorm development is expected from western ND into central/western SD. Storms will track southeastward in a moist and very unstable air mass, where steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear will support the development of supercells. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible with this early activity. Congealing outflows after dark may result in one or more bowing segments capable of severe wind gusts. Have expanded the SLGT a little farther east into MN to account for various morning CAM solutions. ...Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies from northern IN into southeast Lower MI, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon CAPE values expected in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. A weak shortwave trough will pass to the north of this area, providing weak lift and aiding in thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ...East TN/north GA... Another active day of scattered thunderstorms is expected, with hot/humid conditions aiding in the risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon/evening across the Dakotas and Nebraska, where very large hail, severe outflow winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Occasional wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Indiana into southeast Lower Michigan. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced risk over parts of central ND -- driven by 30-percent hail probabilities. Based on the latest high-resolution guidance and observations, confidence has increased that several semi-discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail will evolve along the northern periphery of strong to extreme surface-based buoyancy and very favorable deep-layer shear into tonight. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the outlook. For information on the severe risk in Lower MI and northern IN, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466. ..Weinman.. 06/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025/ ...Dakotas/NE/MN... Water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough moving across MT. As this feature overspreads the northern Plains this afternoon/evening, scattered thunderstorm development is expected from western ND into central/western SD. Storms will track southeastward in a moist and very unstable air mass, where steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear will support the development of supercells. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible with this early activity. Congealing outflows after dark may result in one or more bowing segments capable of severe wind gusts. Have expanded the SLGT a little farther east into MN to account for various morning CAM solutions. ...Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies from northern IN into southeast Lower MI, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon CAPE values expected in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. A weak shortwave trough will pass to the north of this area, providing weak lift and aiding in thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ...East TN/north GA... Another active day of scattered thunderstorms is expected, with hot/humid conditions aiding in the risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon/evening across the Dakotas and Nebraska, where very large hail, severe outflow winds, and a few tornadoes will be possible. Occasional wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Indiana into southeast Lower Michigan. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of an Enhanced risk over parts of central ND -- driven by 30-percent hail probabilities. Based on the latest high-resolution guidance and observations, confidence has increased that several semi-discrete supercells capable of producing very large hail will evolve along the northern periphery of strong to extreme surface-based buoyancy and very favorable deep-layer shear into tonight. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the outlook. For information on the severe risk in Lower MI and northern IN, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 466. ..Weinman.. 06/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025/ ...Dakotas/NE/MN... Water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough moving across MT. As this feature overspreads the northern Plains this afternoon/evening, scattered thunderstorm development is expected from western ND into central/western SD. Storms will track southeastward in a moist and very unstable air mass, where steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear will support the development of supercells. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are possible with this early activity. Congealing outflows after dark may result in one or more bowing segments capable of severe wind gusts. Have expanded the SLGT a little farther east into MN to account for various morning CAM solutions. ...Lower MI... Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies from northern IN into southeast Lower MI, with dewpoints in the 70s and afternoon CAPE values expected in the 2000-3000 J/kg range. A weak shortwave trough will pass to the north of this area, providing weak lift and aiding in thunderstorm development by mid afternoon. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. ...East TN/north GA... Another active day of scattered thunderstorms is expected, with hot/humid conditions aiding in the risk of locally damaging wind gusts and some hail in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest Wyoming... A surface low in South Dakota, elevated mid-level flow and a well-mixed boundary layer will promote sustained west winds of around 15 mph across southwest Wyoming Saturday. These winds combined with relative humidity of 15-20 percent amid dry fuels will bring an elevated fire weather threat to much of the Wyoming Basin. ...Snake River Plain... A passing mid-level trough and attendant wind maxima atop a dry and well-mixed boundary layer will support elevated surface winds across the central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon where dry fuels exist. ..Williams.. 06/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude mid-level troughing over the Northern Rockies will begin to shift eastward Saturday as high pressure over the southern US continues to build. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of the Intermountain West, supporting dry downslope flow ahead of a weak cold front over the Northwest. ...ID into southwest WY... Gusty surface winds through central ID and southwest WY could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Saturday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, continued mid-level zonal flow will linger over central ID. Confidence is highest that 15-20 mph surface winds will occur across portions of the central and eastern Snake River Plain Saturday afternoon. Coincident with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are probable amid fuels that continue to dry. Farther east into WY, less confidence exists in sustained surface winds greater than 15 mph occurring on a widespread basis through the day. However, a very warm and dry air mass will remain in place. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns, especially where terrain-augmented winds may occasionally gust to 15-20 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Southwest Wyoming... A surface low in South Dakota, elevated mid-level flow and a well-mixed boundary layer will promote sustained west winds of around 15 mph across southwest Wyoming Saturday. These winds combined with relative humidity of 15-20 percent amid dry fuels will bring an elevated fire weather threat to much of the Wyoming Basin. ...Snake River Plain... A passing mid-level trough and attendant wind maxima atop a dry and well-mixed boundary layer will support elevated surface winds across the central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range will support elevated fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon where dry fuels exist. ..Williams.. 06/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude mid-level troughing over the Northern Rockies will begin to shift eastward Saturday as high pressure over the southern US continues to build. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of the Intermountain West, supporting dry downslope flow ahead of a weak cold front over the Northwest. ...ID into southwest WY... Gusty surface winds through central ID and southwest WY could support a few hours of elevated fire-weather potential Saturday. In the wake of the departing upper trough, continued mid-level zonal flow will linger over central ID. Confidence is highest that 15-20 mph surface winds will occur across portions of the central and eastern Snake River Plain Saturday afternoon. Coincident with RH below 20%, elevated fire-weather conditions are probable amid fuels that continue to dry. Farther east into WY, less confidence exists in sustained surface winds greater than 15 mph occurring on a widespread basis through the day. However, a very warm and dry air mass will remain in place. This could support some localized fire-weather concerns, especially where terrain-augmented winds may occasionally gust to 15-20 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms appear possible Sunday from the central Great Plains into the upper Great Lakes region, with at least some potential for the evolution of a large, organized severe storm cluster across parts of the mid into lower Missouri Valley and central Great Plains late Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Stronger westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes, but models indicate further amplification of flow across the northeastern Pacific into interior North America through this period. This is forecast to include building mid/upper ridging across British Columbia through the western Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, and digging downstream troughing across the international border toward the Upper Midwest. As mid-level flow transitions from westerly to northwesterly across the northern Rockies toward the middle/lower Missouri Valley, an initially prominent plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting to the east of the Rockies is likely to become increasingly suppressed southward/southwestward into and through the central Great Plains by early Monday. Although the main surface cold front may only reach the Upper Midwest into high plains to the south of the Black Hills, this may be preceded by a notable wind shift, reinforced by considerable convective outflow through much of the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. ...Central Great Plains into middle/lower Missouri Valley... There is a notable signal within the model output that a large reservoir of moderate to strong potential instability, beneath the plume of warm elevated mixed-layer air, may provide support for one or two significant upscale growing clusters of thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday night. There remains sizable spread among the various output concerning where, ranging from near/east of the mid into lower Missouri Valley to portions of western Nebraska into Kansas. Much may depend on the evolution of a possible evolving cluster of storms, and its outflow, across southern South Dakota/northern Nebraska Saturday night, and the extent of the suppression of the elevated mixed-layer by early Sunday, which remain unclear. Stronger instability may tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger westerlies, but modest shear due to veering winds with height, coupled the thermodynamic profiles, characterized by unsaturated lower/mid-levels, with steep lapse rates and large CAPE, seem likely to become supportive of organized convection with strong cold pools capable of producing swaths of strong to severe surface gusts. Severe probabilities will probably need to be upgraded once lingering uncertainties become better resolved. ...Upper Midwest... If early period convection does not impact subsequent destabilization near/ahead of the southeastward advancing frontal zone, it still appears possible that deep-layer shear and forcing for ascent downstream of the digging short wave trough could support scattered strong to severe storm development in a corridor across southwestern through northeastern Wisconsin and portions of adjacent states. ..Kerr.. 06/27/2025 Read more