Severe Storms

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, perhaps including one or two organizing clusters, will pose a risk for severe hail, wind and perhaps a couple of tornadoes across parts of the Upper Midwest into the Plains of South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Seasonally typical early summer pattern will be noted today as stronger westerlies are confined to the northern U.S., and much weaker flow is observed across the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a few weak disturbances are translating across the northern Rockies toward the northern Plains and this will shunt the primary synoptic boundary across much of the Dakotas into the upper MS Valley by early evening. This boundary will prove instrumental in focusing deep convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Early this morning, scattered clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms are propagating southeast across the eastern Dakotas. This activity will advance into the upper MS Valley early in the period as LLJ focuses across eastern SD into northern MN. While some severe threat will be noted with a possible MCS at daybreak, convective outflow will largely influence subsequent regeneration. Latest model guidance suggests an east-west boundary will drape itself across western WI/southern MN by 18z, likely modified by the aforementioned early-day MCS. Boundary-layer heating is expected to aid buoyancy across the Dakotas southeast of the cold front, and scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift by late afternoon, aided in part by a weak short wave trough. Additional convection is also possible along the outflow. Wind profiles favor some supercell development, along with possible clusters. Very large hail could accompany supercells. The east-west boundary should enhance low-level shear such that a higher probability for tornadoes will exist across southern portions of MN. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northern Middle Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Weak short-wave trough is advancing east across the upper Great Lakes region early this morning. Southern influence of this feature will encourage convective development by 18z across the upper OH Valley into upstate NY. Modest west-southwesterly flow at mid levels suggests some convective organization is possible; however, poor lapse rates and modest instability should result in mainly a damaging wind threat with the most organized convection. Some consideration was given for higher probabilities across portions of the northern Middle Atlantic into southern NY, but weak lapse rates are concerning and deep-layer shear is not that strong. Even so, gusty winds will likely be noted with this activity as it spreads across PA/NY toward the western parts of southern New England. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, perhaps including one or two organizing clusters, will pose a risk for severe hail, wind and perhaps a couple of tornadoes across parts of the Upper Midwest into the Plains of South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Seasonally typical early summer pattern will be noted today as stronger westerlies are confined to the northern U.S., and much weaker flow is observed across the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a few weak disturbances are translating across the northern Rockies toward the northern Plains and this will shunt the primary synoptic boundary across much of the Dakotas into the upper MS Valley by early evening. This boundary will prove instrumental in focusing deep convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Early this morning, scattered clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms are propagating southeast across the eastern Dakotas. This activity will advance into the upper MS Valley early in the period as LLJ focuses across eastern SD into northern MN. While some severe threat will be noted with a possible MCS at daybreak, convective outflow will largely influence subsequent regeneration. Latest model guidance suggests an east-west boundary will drape itself across western WI/southern MN by 18z, likely modified by the aforementioned early-day MCS. Boundary-layer heating is expected to aid buoyancy across the Dakotas southeast of the cold front, and scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift by late afternoon, aided in part by a weak short wave trough. Additional convection is also possible along the outflow. Wind profiles favor some supercell development, along with possible clusters. Very large hail could accompany supercells. The east-west boundary should enhance low-level shear such that a higher probability for tornadoes will exist across southern portions of MN. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northern Middle Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Weak short-wave trough is advancing east across the upper Great Lakes region early this morning. Southern influence of this feature will encourage convective development by 18z across the upper OH Valley into upstate NY. Modest west-southwesterly flow at mid levels suggests some convective organization is possible; however, poor lapse rates and modest instability should result in mainly a damaging wind threat with the most organized convection. Some consideration was given for higher probabilities across portions of the northern Middle Atlantic into southern NY, but weak lapse rates are concerning and deep-layer shear is not that strong. Even so, gusty winds will likely be noted with this activity as it spreads across PA/NY toward the western parts of southern New England. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, perhaps including one or two organizing clusters, will pose a risk for severe hail, wind and perhaps a couple of tornadoes across parts of the Upper Midwest into the Plains of South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Seasonally typical early summer pattern will be noted today as stronger westerlies are confined to the northern U.S., and much weaker flow is observed across the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a few weak disturbances are translating across the northern Rockies toward the northern Plains and this will shunt the primary synoptic boundary across much of the Dakotas into the upper MS Valley by early evening. This boundary will prove instrumental in focusing deep convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Early this morning, scattered clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms are propagating southeast across the eastern Dakotas. This activity will advance into the upper MS Valley early in the period as LLJ focuses across eastern SD into northern MN. While some severe threat will be noted with a possible MCS at daybreak, convective outflow will largely influence subsequent regeneration. Latest model guidance suggests an east-west boundary will drape itself across western WI/southern MN by 18z, likely modified by the aforementioned early-day MCS. Boundary-layer heating is expected to aid buoyancy across the Dakotas southeast of the cold front, and scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift by late afternoon, aided in part by a weak short wave trough. Additional convection is also possible along the outflow. Wind profiles favor some supercell development, along with possible clusters. Very large hail could accompany supercells. The east-west boundary should enhance low-level shear such that a higher probability for tornadoes will exist across southern portions of MN. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northern Middle Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Weak short-wave trough is advancing east across the upper Great Lakes region early this morning. Southern influence of this feature will encourage convective development by 18z across the upper OH Valley into upstate NY. Modest west-southwesterly flow at mid levels suggests some convective organization is possible; however, poor lapse rates and modest instability should result in mainly a damaging wind threat with the most organized convection. Some consideration was given for higher probabilities across portions of the northern Middle Atlantic into southern NY, but weak lapse rates are concerning and deep-layer shear is not that strong. Even so, gusty winds will likely be noted with this activity as it spreads across PA/NY toward the western parts of southern New England. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, perhaps including one or two organizing clusters, will pose a risk for severe hail, wind and perhaps a couple of tornadoes across parts of the Upper Midwest into the Plains of South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Seasonally typical early summer pattern will be noted today as stronger westerlies are confined to the northern U.S., and much weaker flow is observed across the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a few weak disturbances are translating across the northern Rockies toward the northern Plains and this will shunt the primary synoptic boundary across much of the Dakotas into the upper MS Valley by early evening. This boundary will prove instrumental in focusing deep convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Early this morning, scattered clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms are propagating southeast across the eastern Dakotas. This activity will advance into the upper MS Valley early in the period as LLJ focuses across eastern SD into northern MN. While some severe threat will be noted with a possible MCS at daybreak, convective outflow will largely influence subsequent regeneration. Latest model guidance suggests an east-west boundary will drape itself across western WI/southern MN by 18z, likely modified by the aforementioned early-day MCS. Boundary-layer heating is expected to aid buoyancy across the Dakotas southeast of the cold front, and scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift by late afternoon, aided in part by a weak short wave trough. Additional convection is also possible along the outflow. Wind profiles favor some supercell development, along with possible clusters. Very large hail could accompany supercells. The east-west boundary should enhance low-level shear such that a higher probability for tornadoes will exist across southern portions of MN. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northern Middle Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Weak short-wave trough is advancing east across the upper Great Lakes region early this morning. Southern influence of this feature will encourage convective development by 18z across the upper OH Valley into upstate NY. Modest west-southwesterly flow at mid levels suggests some convective organization is possible; however, poor lapse rates and modest instability should result in mainly a damaging wind threat with the most organized convection. Some consideration was given for higher probabilities across portions of the northern Middle Atlantic into southern NY, but weak lapse rates are concerning and deep-layer shear is not that strong. Even so, gusty winds will likely be noted with this activity as it spreads across PA/NY toward the western parts of southern New England. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE BLACK HILLS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, perhaps including one or two organizing clusters, will pose a risk for severe hail, wind and perhaps a couple of tornadoes across parts of the Upper Midwest into the Plains of South Dakota and Nebraska. ...Upper Midwest to the Black Hills of South Dakota... Seasonally typical early summer pattern will be noted today as stronger westerlies are confined to the northern U.S., and much weaker flow is observed across the southern two-thirds of the CONUS. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a few weak disturbances are translating across the northern Rockies toward the northern Plains and this will shunt the primary synoptic boundary across much of the Dakotas into the upper MS Valley by early evening. This boundary will prove instrumental in focusing deep convection during the afternoon/evening hours. Early this morning, scattered clusters of strong/severe thunderstorms are propagating southeast across the eastern Dakotas. This activity will advance into the upper MS Valley early in the period as LLJ focuses across eastern SD into northern MN. While some severe threat will be noted with a possible MCS at daybreak, convective outflow will largely influence subsequent regeneration. Latest model guidance suggests an east-west boundary will drape itself across western WI/southern MN by 18z, likely modified by the aforementioned early-day MCS. Boundary-layer heating is expected to aid buoyancy across the Dakotas southeast of the cold front, and scattered thunderstorms should readily develop along this wind shift by late afternoon, aided in part by a weak short wave trough. Additional convection is also possible along the outflow. Wind profiles favor some supercell development, along with possible clusters. Very large hail could accompany supercells. The east-west boundary should enhance low-level shear such that a higher probability for tornadoes will exist across southern portions of MN. Stronger heating across the Plains of NE into eastern WY will aid isolated-scattered thunderstorms across this portion of the SLGT Risk. Higher-based updrafts, but steep lapse rates suggest hail/wind will be the primary concerns. ...Northern Middle Atlantic region and upper Ohio Valley... Weak short-wave trough is advancing east across the upper Great Lakes region early this morning. Southern influence of this feature will encourage convective development by 18z across the upper OH Valley into upstate NY. Modest west-southwesterly flow at mid levels suggests some convective organization is possible; however, poor lapse rates and modest instability should result in mainly a damaging wind threat with the most organized convection. Some consideration was given for higher probabilities across portions of the northern Middle Atlantic into southern NY, but weak lapse rates are concerning and deep-layer shear is not that strong. Even so, gusty winds will likely be noted with this activity as it spreads across PA/NY toward the western parts of southern New England. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 06/28/2025 Read more

MD 1485 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469... FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1485 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Areas affected...Eastern South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469... Valid 280434Z - 280530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 continues. SUMMARY...Storms in North Dakota could threaten extreme northern South Dakota, which could justify a local watch extension. However, the overall severe threat has diminished and the majority of the watch can be cancelled or allowed to expire at 05z. DISCUSSION...The earlier bowing cluster has moved southeast of severe thunderstorm watch 469, and the other convection has weakened. Though some elevated convection could form later tonight atop the lingering cold pools, the near-surface stabilization beneath a warm elevated mixed layer suggests that new severe storm development is unlikely. The ongoing tornadic supercells in south central ND could just cross into northern SD, and a small watch extension may need to be considered for northern SD. The severe threat farther to the south appears to have ended and the majority of the watch can be cancelled or allowed to expire at 05z. ..Thompson.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45019789 43549707 43059748 43129840 43919920 44739958 45969991 45999938 45969846 45019789 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0470 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 470 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW YKN TO 15 E YKN TO 5 NNW FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486 ..THOMPSON..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 470 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-280540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC027-043-051-280540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR DAKOTA DIXON SDC083-127-280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0470 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 470 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW YKN TO 15 E YKN TO 5 NNW FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486 ..THOMPSON..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 470 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-280540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC027-043-051-280540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR DAKOTA DIXON SDC083-127-280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0470 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 470 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW YKN TO 15 E YKN TO 5 NNW FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486 ..THOMPSON..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 470 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-280540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC027-043-051-280540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR DAKOTA DIXON SDC083-127-280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0470 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 470 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW YKN TO 15 E YKN TO 5 NNW FSD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1486 ..THOMPSON..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 470 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC035-093-119-141-143-149-167-193-280540- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE IDA LYON O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PLYMOUTH SIOUX WOODBURY NEC027-043-051-280540- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CEDAR DAKOTA DIXON SDC083-127-280540- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 470 SEVERE TSTM IA NE SD 280330Z - 280800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 470 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Iowa Northeast Nebraska Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 1030 PM until 300 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized/intense cluster of storms with a history of severe-caliber winds will continue southeastward late this evening into the early overnight. See Mesoscale Discussion 1483 for more short-term details. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles south of Mitchell SD to 55 miles east northeast of Sioux City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 467...WW 468...WW 469... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1484 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 468... FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1484 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1038 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Areas affected...South central North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 468... Valid 280338Z - 280445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of strong tornadoes possible through 04-05z. DISCUSSION...An increase in low-level shear with the evening transition, combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the lower 70s, is helping offset the influence of near-ground stabilization. The substantial increase in hodograph curvature will contribute to more leftward/inflow dominant tornado motions with mesocyclone occlusions. This environment will also support the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes through 04-05z. ..Thompson.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BIS... LAT...LON 46090012 46440059 46930084 47160046 47169944 46989919 46119927 46090012 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 1482 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 468... FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Areas affected...Central and south central North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 468... Valid 280308Z - 280445Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for a couple of tornadoes, isolated very large hail and severe outflow gusts will persist for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells are ongoing across central and south central ND, and these storms previously produced hail up to 2.5-2.75 inches in diameter and at least one tornado. Gradual cooling of the boundary layer post-sunset will result in gradual low-level stabilization. However, a concurrent increase in low-level shear/hodograph curvature suggests that there is still a window of opportunity for a couple of tornadoes through about 04-05z, as well as large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter. In time, there could be some upscale growth with cell interactions, and a larger storm cluster could evolve and move along the buoyancy gradient into southeast ND after 05z. If that evolution occurs, the threat for severe outflow gusts of 60-80 mph will increase. ..Thompson.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47570023 47839955 47849868 47449822 46779800 46209787 45939824 45929922 45969991 46430059 47130092 47570023 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MBG TO 40 NNE BIS TO 30 ESE DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 ..THOMPSON..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-015-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-051-073-081-093-103- 280540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM SARGENT STUTSMAN WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MBG TO 40 NNE BIS TO 30 ESE DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 ..THOMPSON..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-015-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-051-073-081-093-103- 280540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM SARGENT STUTSMAN WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MBG TO 40 NNE BIS TO 30 ESE DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 ..THOMPSON..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-015-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-051-073-081-093-103- 280540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM SARGENT STUTSMAN WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW MBG TO 40 NNE BIS TO 30 ESE DVL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1484 ..THOMPSON..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC003-015-021-027-029-031-039-043-045-047-051-073-081-093-103- 280540- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH DICKEY EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRIGGS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM SARGENT STUTSMAN WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 468 TORNADO ND 272220Z - 280600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 468 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 520 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon and Saturday morning from 520 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Widespread large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...Severe storms including supercells are expected to develop through early/mid-evening within a very unstable environment, amidst moderately strong atmospheric winds. These supercells may be intense and capable of very large hail along with some tornado risk. Severe wind gust potential will likely increase later this evening as storms progress east-southeastward. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Garrison ND to 40 miles north northeast of Jamestown ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 466...WW 467... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 1483 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1483 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Nebraska and far southeast South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon Valid 280325Z - 280400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A bowing cluster with a history of severe outflow winds may persist through about 06z. DISCUSSION...A bowing cluster, with a history of measure outflow gusts up to 77-82 mph, is well organized and will likely pose a continued severe threat for another few hours. The cluster is moving along the corridor of maximum buoyancy, and will be fed by a 30-40 kt low-level jet. These factors may offset the gradual increase in convective inhibition and allow the storm cluster to persist near the MO River through about 06z. Thereafter, the strengthening cap should result in gradual weakening of the storms. ..Thompson/Guyer.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42999818 43319767 43219719 42989662 42739630 42199628 42159640 42309737 42609798 42999818 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 1481 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 469... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0918 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Areas affected...portions of central South Dakota Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469... Valid 280218Z - 280345Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds appear likely to continue this evening as a couple of severe storm clusters spread eastward across WW469. A local expansion may be needed as storms approach the eastern edge of the watch. DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC, regional radar imagery showed two clusters of severe thunderstorms ongoing within WW469 across SD. The northern most cluster (across parts of Carson, Ziebach and Dewey Counties) has shown steady intensification over the last hour as it has moved into large buoyancy (MLCAPE ~4000 J/kg). This intensification trend should continue with the environment downstream still very unstable and supportive of severe storms. As low-level warm advection increases with the arrival of the low-level jet, continual upscale growth is expected. Therefore, damaging gusts are the most likely hazard. Farther south, initial supercells have gradually coalesced into a broader cluster roughly along I-90. An increase in forward speed and recent wind gust to 71 mph suggests a stronger cold pool is becoming established. Similar to the northern cluster, a very unstable environment remains in place, supportive of organized deep convection. This should support a continued threat for damaging winds and some hail as this storm cluster propagates east/southeast this evening. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 45909899 45889853 44639754 44539749 43749708 42949718 42849769 42819798 43139954 44110087 44770136 45820115 45909899 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more