Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be needed within this zone, but there is potential for cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks. The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge. This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday. By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore, confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across the northern Plains by next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be needed within this zone, but there is potential for cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks. The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge. This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday. By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore, confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across the northern Plains by next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be needed within this zone, but there is potential for cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks. The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge. This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday. By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore, confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across the northern Plains by next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Day 4/Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front will move east through the period. Moderate instability is expected along this front and some severe weather may be possible from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Slight risk (15%) probabilities may eventually be needed within this zone, but there is potential for cloudcover/thunderstorm activity from Monday evening to impact destabilization. Therefore, confidence is not high enough for probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4, a relative lull in severe weather potential is expected. Multiple reinforcing mid-level troughs will amplify the larger-scale trough across the eastern CONUS. As this occurs, the surface cold front will move south, potentially to the Gulf Coast and into the western Atlantic. This will eliminate the very moist airmass which resulted in moderate to strong instability across much of the eastern CONUS for the past few weeks. The greater low-level moisture is expected to remain and perhaps advect north across the central Plains beneath a large-scale ridge. This could result in some thunderstorm activity, but shear is expected to be very weak, and the building ridge aloft may suppress convection on D5/Wednesday to D6/Thursday. By next weekend, this ridge is expected to flatten with some stronger mid-level flow moving across the northern Plains. The exact evolution of the upper-pattern remains uncertain and therefore, confidence is low, but severe weather chances may increase across the northern Plains by next weekend. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the western Great Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will remain persistent across the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this cold front. ...Ohio Valley... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front in the Ohio Valley on Monday with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures warming to near 80. Mid-level flow around 25 to 30 knots may provide sufficient shear for some multicell clusters with a threat for damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. This threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic... Moderate instability is forecast east of the Appalachians on Monday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear will be quite weak, but steep low-level lapse rates will support some threat for damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the western Great Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will remain persistent across the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this cold front. ...Ohio Valley... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front in the Ohio Valley on Monday with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures warming to near 80. Mid-level flow around 25 to 30 knots may provide sufficient shear for some multicell clusters with a threat for damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. This threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic... Moderate instability is forecast east of the Appalachians on Monday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear will be quite weak, but steep low-level lapse rates will support some threat for damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the western Great Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will remain persistent across the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this cold front. ...Ohio Valley... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front in the Ohio Valley on Monday with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures warming to near 80. Mid-level flow around 25 to 30 knots may provide sufficient shear for some multicell clusters with a threat for damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. This threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic... Moderate instability is forecast east of the Appalachians on Monday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear will be quite weak, but steep low-level lapse rates will support some threat for damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the western Great Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will remain persistent across the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this cold front. ...Ohio Valley... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front in the Ohio Valley on Monday with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures warming to near 80. Mid-level flow around 25 to 30 knots may provide sufficient shear for some multicell clusters with a threat for damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. This threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic... Moderate instability is forecast east of the Appalachians on Monday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear will be quite weak, but steep low-level lapse rates will support some threat for damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the western Great Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will remain persistent across the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this cold front. ...Ohio Valley... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front in the Ohio Valley on Monday with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures warming to near 80. Mid-level flow around 25 to 30 knots may provide sufficient shear for some multicell clusters with a threat for damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. This threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic... Moderate instability is forecast east of the Appalachians on Monday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear will be quite weak, but steep low-level lapse rates will support some threat for damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the western Great Lakes on Monday. Meanwhile, mid-level ridging will remain persistent across the western CONUS. At the surface, a cold front will move across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. High pressure will build into the Plains in the wake of this cold front. ...Ohio Valley... Moderate instability is forecast to develop ahead of the cold front in the Ohio Valley on Monday with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures warming to near 80. Mid-level flow around 25 to 30 knots may provide sufficient shear for some multicell clusters with a threat for damaging wind gusts Monday afternoon/evening. This threat should be mostly diurnally driven and wane after dark. ...Mid-Atlantic... Moderate instability is forecast east of the Appalachians on Monday as temperatures warm into the low to mid 90s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Shear will be quite weak, but steep low-level lapse rates will support some threat for damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to steadily build over the West Coast Sunday, as weak troughing shifts eastward. As heights continue to rise, weakening the flow aloft over the northern Rockies, a cold front will move out of the Northwest ushering in a cooler and higher humidity air mass. Some residual mid-level flow will linger across WY and western CO Sunday, but surface winds are expected to be much weaker and will shift to northwesterly. The weaker winds, along with increasing humidity should limit broader fire-weather potential. Some localized dry and breezy conditions will remain possible over southwest WY, but widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to steadily build over the West Coast Sunday, as weak troughing shifts eastward. As heights continue to rise, weakening the flow aloft over the northern Rockies, a cold front will move out of the Northwest ushering in a cooler and higher humidity air mass. Some residual mid-level flow will linger across WY and western CO Sunday, but surface winds are expected to be much weaker and will shift to northwesterly. The weaker winds, along with increasing humidity should limit broader fire-weather potential. Some localized dry and breezy conditions will remain possible over southwest WY, but widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to steadily build over the West Coast Sunday, as weak troughing shifts eastward. As heights continue to rise, weakening the flow aloft over the northern Rockies, a cold front will move out of the Northwest ushering in a cooler and higher humidity air mass. Some residual mid-level flow will linger across WY and western CO Sunday, but surface winds are expected to be much weaker and will shift to northwesterly. The weaker winds, along with increasing humidity should limit broader fire-weather potential. Some localized dry and breezy conditions will remain possible over southwest WY, but widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to steadily build over the West Coast Sunday, as weak troughing shifts eastward. As heights continue to rise, weakening the flow aloft over the northern Rockies, a cold front will move out of the Northwest ushering in a cooler and higher humidity air mass. Some residual mid-level flow will linger across WY and western CO Sunday, but surface winds are expected to be much weaker and will shift to northwesterly. The weaker winds, along with increasing humidity should limit broader fire-weather potential. Some localized dry and breezy conditions will remain possible over southwest WY, but widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to steadily build over the West Coast Sunday, as weak troughing shifts eastward. As heights continue to rise, weakening the flow aloft over the northern Rockies, a cold front will move out of the Northwest ushering in a cooler and higher humidity air mass. Some residual mid-level flow will linger across WY and western CO Sunday, but surface winds are expected to be much weaker and will shift to northwesterly. The weaker winds, along with increasing humidity should limit broader fire-weather potential. Some localized dry and breezy conditions will remain possible over southwest WY, but widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper ridging is forecast to steadily build over the West Coast Sunday, as weak troughing shifts eastward. As heights continue to rise, weakening the flow aloft over the northern Rockies, a cold front will move out of the Northwest ushering in a cooler and higher humidity air mass. Some residual mid-level flow will linger across WY and western CO Sunday, but surface winds are expected to be much weaker and will shift to northwesterly. The weaker winds, along with increasing humidity should limit broader fire-weather potential. Some localized dry and breezy conditions will remain possible over southwest WY, but widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Subtle mid-level troughing on the northern periphery of the sub tropical ridge will continue over the northern Rockies and Northwest today. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of the Intermountain West, supporting dry downslope flow ahead of a weak cold front over the Northwest. Lee troughing and the increased flow aloft will encourage breezy westerly flow amid dry conditions, conducive for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Snake River Plain into western WY... Increasing mid-level flow attendant to a passing mid-level shortwave trough will overspread a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across portions of ID and western WY this afternoon. Aided by lee troughing, elevated surface winds are expected across the central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain and through the Red Desert in southwest WY. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph, combined with warm afternoon temperatures and relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range, will support elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Subtle mid-level troughing on the northern periphery of the sub tropical ridge will continue over the northern Rockies and Northwest today. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of the Intermountain West, supporting dry downslope flow ahead of a weak cold front over the Northwest. Lee troughing and the increased flow aloft will encourage breezy westerly flow amid dry conditions, conducive for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Snake River Plain into western WY... Increasing mid-level flow attendant to a passing mid-level shortwave trough will overspread a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across portions of ID and western WY this afternoon. Aided by lee troughing, elevated surface winds are expected across the central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain and through the Red Desert in southwest WY. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph, combined with warm afternoon temperatures and relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range, will support elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Subtle mid-level troughing on the northern periphery of the sub tropical ridge will continue over the northern Rockies and Northwest today. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of the Intermountain West, supporting dry downslope flow ahead of a weak cold front over the Northwest. Lee troughing and the increased flow aloft will encourage breezy westerly flow amid dry conditions, conducive for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Snake River Plain into western WY... Increasing mid-level flow attendant to a passing mid-level shortwave trough will overspread a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across portions of ID and western WY this afternoon. Aided by lee troughing, elevated surface winds are expected across the central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain and through the Red Desert in southwest WY. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph, combined with warm afternoon temperatures and relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range, will support elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Subtle mid-level troughing on the northern periphery of the sub tropical ridge will continue over the northern Rockies and Northwest today. A belt of stronger mid-level flow will remain in place over parts of the Intermountain West, supporting dry downslope flow ahead of a weak cold front over the Northwest. Lee troughing and the increased flow aloft will encourage breezy westerly flow amid dry conditions, conducive for elevated fire-weather conditions. ...Snake River Plain into western WY... Increasing mid-level flow attendant to a passing mid-level shortwave trough will overspread a dry and well-mixed boundary layer across portions of ID and western WY this afternoon. Aided by lee troughing, elevated surface winds are expected across the central/eastern portions of the Snake River Plain and through the Red Desert in southwest WY. Westerly winds of 15-20 mph, combined with warm afternoon temperatures and relative humidity in the 15-20 percent range, will support elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon and evening. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more