Severe Storms

WW 0469 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 469 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ANW TO 25 S 9V9 TO 20 WNW 9V9 TO 15 SSW PHP. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 469 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-041-043-045-049-053- 059-061-065-067-069-073-075-085-087-089-107-111-117-119-125-129- 135-280340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BRULE BUFFALO CAMPBELL CHARLES MIX CLAY CORSON DAVISON DEWEY DOUGLAS EDMUNDS FAULK GREGORY HAND HANSON HUGHES HUTCHINSON HYDE JERAULD JONES LYMAN MCCOOK MCPHERSON POTTER SANBORN STANLEY SULLY TURNER WALWORTH YANKTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0469 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 469 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ANW TO 25 S 9V9 TO 20 WNW 9V9 TO 15 SSW PHP. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 469 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-041-043-045-049-053- 059-061-065-067-069-073-075-085-087-089-107-111-117-119-125-129- 135-280340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BRULE BUFFALO CAMPBELL CHARLES MIX CLAY CORSON DAVISON DEWEY DOUGLAS EDMUNDS FAULK GREGORY HAND HANSON HUGHES HUTCHINSON HYDE JERAULD JONES LYMAN MCCOOK MCPHERSON POTTER SANBORN STANLEY SULLY TURNER WALWORTH YANKTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0469 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 469 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ANW TO 25 S 9V9 TO 20 WNW 9V9 TO 15 SSW PHP. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 469 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-041-043-045-049-053- 059-061-065-067-069-073-075-085-087-089-107-111-117-119-125-129- 135-280340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BRULE BUFFALO CAMPBELL CHARLES MIX CLAY CORSON DAVISON DEWEY DOUGLAS EDMUNDS FAULK GREGORY HAND HANSON HUGHES HUTCHINSON HYDE JERAULD JONES LYMAN MCCOOK MCPHERSON POTTER SANBORN STANLEY SULLY TURNER WALWORTH YANKTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0469 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 469 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE ANW TO 25 S 9V9 TO 20 WNW 9V9 TO 15 SSW PHP. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 469 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-009-015-017-021-023-027-031-035-041-043-045-049-053- 059-061-065-067-069-073-075-085-087-089-107-111-117-119-125-129- 135-280340- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BON HOMME BRULE BUFFALO CAMPBELL CHARLES MIX CLAY CORSON DAVISON DEWEY DOUGLAS EDMUNDS FAULK GREGORY HAND HANSON HUGHES HUTCHINSON HYDE JERAULD JONES LYMAN MCCOOK MCPHERSON POTTER SANBORN STANLEY SULLY TURNER WALWORTH YANKTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 469 SEVERE TSTM SD 272245Z - 280500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 469 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central and Southeast South Dakota * Effective this Friday afternoon from 545 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell development may occur initially across south-central South Dakota, with these storms potentially capable of very large hail and locally damaging winds as the most probable hazards within a moist and very unstable environment. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles southwest of Pierre SD to 40 miles south southeast of Huron SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 467...WW 468... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DIK TO 70 WNW HCO. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-015-019-027-029-031-037-041-043-047-051-059-065-069- 071-083-085-093-095-103-280340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN TOWNER WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DIK TO 70 WNW HCO. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-015-019-027-029-031-037-041-043-047-051-059-065-069- 071-083-085-093-095-103-280340- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY SHERIDAN SIOUX STUTSMAN TOWNER WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LBF TO 35 NE VTN. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-041-101-103-115-149-280340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CUSTER KEITH KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LBF TO 35 NE VTN. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-041-101-103-115-149-280340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CUSTER KEITH KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LBF TO 35 NE VTN. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-041-101-103-115-149-280340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CUSTER KEITH KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LBF TO 35 NE VTN. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-041-101-103-115-149-280340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CUSTER KEITH KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LBF TO 35 NE VTN. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-041-101-103-115-149-280340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CUSTER KEITH KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE LBF TO 35 NE VTN. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-041-101-103-115-149-280340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CUSTER KEITH KEYA PAHA LOUP ROCK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 467 SEVERE TSTM NE 272035Z - 280400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 467 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 235 PM MDT Fri Jun 27 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...High-based thunderstorms over the Nebraska Panhandle will build eastward into an unstable environment, with intensification expected. Damaging winds and hail will be possible with the stronger storms through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Mullen NE to 40 miles southwest of North Platte NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 466... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

MD 1480 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 468... FOR CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0717 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Areas affected...central North Dakota Concerning...Tornado Watch 468... Valid 280017Z - 280115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 468 continues. SUMMARY...Storms ongoing across WW468 should continue to mature into supercells this evening. An initial risk for large to very large hail and damaging gusts is expected. A couple of tornadoes are possible later this evening as low-level flow is forecast to increase. DISCUSSION...Across WW468, satellite and radar imagery show initial updrafts are rapidly strengthening across ND early this evening. Aided by 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear, continued intensification is expected. As convection continues to develop, several supercells should mature with large to very large hail and damaging gusts likely. The most intense storms could produce hail to 3-4 inches in diameter. Wile low-level flow remains modest initially, hodogrpahs should begin to expand this evening with the intensification of the low-level jet. This could support a risk for a couple of tornadoes with the more intense supercells. Additional upscale growth may also favor an increase in the damaging wind threat later tonight. ..Lyons.. 06/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 46450232 48720165 48899921 48919834 46659815 46069906 46050168 46450232 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

WW 0468 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE DIK TO 60 NNE MOT. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...BIS...FGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 468 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NDC001-005-009-015-019-027-029-031-037-041-043-047-049-051-055- 057-059-065-069-071-079-083-085-089-093-095-101-103-280240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS BENSON BOTTINEAU BURLEIGH CAVALIER EDDY EMMONS FOSTER GRANT HETTINGER KIDDER LOGAN MCHENRY MCINTOSH MCLEAN MERCER MORTON OLIVER PIERCE RAMSEY ROLETTE SHERIDAN SIOUX STARK STUTSMAN TOWNER WARD WELLS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0469 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 469 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 469 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS SDC003-005-015-017-023-035-043-053-059-065-069-073-075-085-095- 111-117-121-123-280240- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AURORA BEADLE BRULE BUFFALO CHARLES MIX DAVISON DOUGLAS GREGORY HAND HUGHES HYDE JERAULD JONES LYMAN MELLETTE SANBORN STANLEY TODD TRIPP THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0467 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE SNY TO 25 S MHN TO 15 NNE VTN. ..LYONS..06/28/25 ATTN...WFO...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 467 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC009-017-031-041-049-091-101-103-111-113-115-117-135-149-171- 280240- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE BROWN CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL HOOKER KEITH KEYA PAHA LINCOLN LOGAN LOUP MCPHERSON PERKINS ROCK THOMAS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more