Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the northern Plains this evening. Very large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes can be expected. ...01z Update... Short-wave ridge is flattening a bit across the northern Plains early this evening as several weak disturbances are ejecting across the northern Rockies into the High Plains of eastern MT/western ND. Over the last few hours, scattered supercells have developed along the northern edge of strong buoyancy across ND. 00z sounding from BIS exhibited MLCAPE around 2300 J/kg with very steep low-midlevel lapse rates. This activity is maturing along/near a surface boundary that is draped from east of Minot to near Dickinson ND, trailing into the northern portions of the Black Hills of SD. Just upstream, satellite/radar imagery suggest a weak short-wave trough is approaching eastern MT. A very weak MCV may be noted just west of Jordan and this feature could encourage upscale growth downstream later this evening as the LLJ increases, partly in response to the short wave. 1km VAD flow is already around 20kt at BIS, and marked increase should be noted over the next few hours. With time, ongoing convection may gradually coalesce into an MCS which would propagate downstream along the nose of the LLJ into the upper Red River region. Until then, very large hail may occur with ongoing supercells, along with some risk for a few tornadoes. Damaging winds may become more common as the MCS evolves later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/28/2025 Read more

MD 1479 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 467... FOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0647 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Areas affected...central Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467... Valid 272347Z - 280045Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 467 continues. SUMMARY...Severe gusts remain possible with several clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing across NE. Some hail is also possible. DISCUSSION...As of 2340 UTC, regional radar imagery showed several clusters of strong to severe storms ongoing across WW467. Mostly outflow dominate, these clusters should persist in an unstable environment (3000+ j/kg MLCAPE) supportive of strong updrafts. The degree of buoyancy and steep low-level lapse rates suggest damaging gusts and some hail will remain possible with these clusters as they slowly move eastward this evening. The severe threat should continue this evening, though the eastern extent of the more robust threat remains somewhat unclear. So far storm organization has been limited, and MLCIHN has started to slowly increase from warm mid-level temperatures and weaker forcing ascent displaced to the north. As the storms and outflow continue eastward the severe threat may extended beyond the eastern edge of Watch 467. Some model guidance shows an uptick in convective coverage later as the low-level jet increases, but this remains unclear. A local extension of WW467 may be needed should storms show an increase in intensity. ..Lyons.. 06/27/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...LBF...UNR... LAT...LON 40820186 41180213 42640156 43060086 43039928 42319917 41030014 40740086 40820186 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE TOL TO 20 NNW DTW TO 45 ENE BAX. ..THOMPSON..06/27/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC099-115-125-147-151-163-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ443-463-464-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more

WW 0466 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE TOL TO 20 NNW DTW TO 45 ENE BAX. ..THOMPSON..06/27/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...DTX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 466 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MIC099-115-125-147-151-163-272240- MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MACOMB MONROE OAKLAND ST. CLAIR SANILAC WAYNE LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ443-463-464-272240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE ST. CLAIR RIVER DETROIT RIVER LAKE ST. CLAIR OPEN LAKE (U.S. PORTION) MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI Read more