Severe Storms

WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE ALO TO 5 WNW LSE TO 40 W CWA. ..SQUITIERI..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-053-057-063-081-103-123-262340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD JACKSON JUNEAU LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE SDA TO 35 SW DSM TO 20 NE DSM TO 30 SE FOD TO 10 E FOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1463 ..SQUITIERI..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-011-013-017-019-023-033-039-043-051-053-055-065-069-075- 079-083-095-099-107-113-117-123-125-127-135-157-159-169-171-173- 175-179-181-185-195-197-262340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CERRO GORDO CLARKE CLAYTON DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN IOWA JASPER KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY TAMA TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WORTH WRIGHT KSC005-043-103-209-262340- Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 464 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 464 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-003-005-262340- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-262340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037- 041-043-510-262340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL CECIL CHARLES FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-011-013-015-017-019-023-033-039-043-049-051-053- 055-065-069-075-079-083-095-099-107-113-117-121-123-125-127-135- 153-157-159-169-171-173-175-179-181-185-195-197-262340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE BENTON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CERRO GORDO CLARKE CLAYTON DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN GRUNDY HAMILTON HARDIN IOWA JASPER KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD STORY TAMA TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE WORTH WRIGHT KSC043-262340- Read more

MD 1459 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 465... FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern IA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465... Valid 262031Z - 262200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will continue through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...A convective line has evolved across central into northern IA this afternoon, with other smaller clusters gradually becoming better organized into southwest IA. Deep-layer shear is rather weak, and weakens with southward extent, but unidirectional 25-35 kt southwest flow in the 1-3 km AGL layer (as noted in the KDMX VWP) could support some organized damaging-wind potential. There has been some tendency for outflow to advance ahead of the convective line, but any small bowing segments that become oriented more orthogonal to the southwesterly low/midlevel flow (such as the one across Butler/Grundy Counties, IA) could be more likely to produce localized swaths of wind damage through late afternoon. Modestly favorable effective SRH could also support a brief tornado threat. ..Dean.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX... LAT...LON 41959369 42729301 42999270 43139190 43139144 42909146 42509161 41979203 41589237 40919328 40799467 41569403 41959369 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE FRM TO 15 WNW LSE TO 25 ESE EAU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1461 ..SQUITIERI..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-037-067-089-131-191-262340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CHICKASAW FLOYD HOWARD MITCHELL WINNESHIEK MNC045-055-099-262340- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FILLMORE HOUSTON MOWER WIC001-023-053-057-063-081-103-123-262340- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD JACKSON Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 041200Z ...Day 3-4/Saturday-Sunday... Stronger westerly mid-level winds under a largely zonal flow pattern will remain across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Tier states through the weekend. This will support breezy valley winds within the Snake River Plain on Day 3/Saturday. These winds will overlap within a dry boundary layer/low relative humidity environment where fuels continue to dry, becoming more receptive to wildfire spread. ...Day 5-7/Monday-Wednesday... Increasing mid-level lapse rates, moisture and elevated instability along with supportive dynamics from incoming upper-level trough will promote shower and thunderstorm development across northern California and along and just east of the Oregon Cascades beginning as early as Day 4/Sunday, heading into the Day 5/Monday time frame. The initial build up of mid-level moisture and convection over a dry, sub-cloud layer will inhibit higher rain amounts under nascent thunderstorms. Fuels will undergo further drying through the weekend with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. ERC values near the 90th percentile are expected by early next week, increasing ignition potential. Increasing atmospheric moisture Day 6/Tuesday should promote higher rainfall amounts, limiting dry thunderstorm threat across the Cascades and portions of central Oregon. A drier, downslope flow pattern returns to the Cascades Day 7/Wednesday as the leading mid-level trough axis shifts east into the Great Basin and Northern Rockies. This would allow potential holdover ignitions to be exposed to an environment more favorable to fire spread. ...Day 8/Thursday... Long term ensemble guidance indicates a weak mid-level trough lingering across the Western U.S. However, forecast signal remains muted, introducing enough uncertainty to preclude introduction of any critical fire weather probabilities. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1458 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 463... FOR PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST IA...SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHWEST WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...Parts of extreme northeast IA...southeast MN...southwest WI Concerning...Tornado Watch 463... Valid 261943Z - 262115Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 463 continues. SUMMARY...Both an eastward-moving convective line and developing cells ahead of the line could pose a tornado threat this afternoon. Localized damaging wind is also possible. DISCUSSION...A broken line of storms has developed from southeast MN into north-central IA, with additional cells gradually developing east of the line into parts of southwest WI. MLCAPE has increased into the 1000-1500 J/kg along and immediately north of the warm front, with a more stable environment farther north, where clouds have persisted and temperatures are in the 60s F. The broken line moving across far southeast MN earlier produced a reported tornado in Freeborn County, and this portion of the line will continue to pose a tornado threat as it traverses the warm frontal zone, where low-level shear/SRH is locally enhanced (as noted in the KARX VWP). The developing cells east of the line could also begin to pose a tornado threat, especially if one or more of these cells can mature and take on more of a front-parallel motion, leading to increased residence time in the frontal zone. Cell mergers into the primary line could also result in locally increased tornado potential. Aside from the tornado potential, locally damaging wind will continue to be possible with the primary convective line as it moves eastward this afternoon. ..Dean.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 44179241 44209163 44109074 43979004 43689005 43209016 43369100 43449174 43479251 43659255 44179241 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more