Severe Storms

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms, posing a risk for severe hail and wind, are possible across parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. ...Discussion... Little change in the large-scale mid/upper flow is forecast from Friday into Saturday, with modest westerlies remaining generally zonal and confined to the northern tier of the U.S. and adjacent portions of southern Canada. Within this regime, one notable short wave trough is forecast to progress east of the Great Lakes into New England Saturday through Saturday night, as broad upstream troughing (with at least a couple of embedded smaller-scale perturbations) progresses eastward along the north central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. In lower-levels, cooler and drier boundary-layer air is likely to be maintained across parts of northern New England, with another influx of cooler air spreading southeast of the Great Lakes through the upper Ohio Valley, northern Mid Atlantic coast and southern New England by late Saturday night. A trailing cold front is likely to continue slowly advancing east/southeast of the northern Rockies, through the northern Great Plains. Elsewhere, east of the high plains, seasonably moist boundary air may become characterized by moderate to strong potential instability with daytime heating. ...Northern Great Plains... The extent of convective development and its evolution remain unclear for this period due to a number of lingering uncertainties. Focus for renewed thunderstorm development could be impacted by outflow from convection developing Friday night into early Saturday. Additionally, strongest potential instability by Saturday afternoon is likely to become focused beneath the nose of the warmer and more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, roughly across the northern/eastern South Dakota vicinity, before slowly becoming suppressed southeastward. However, this might tend to become displaced to the south of the stronger and more favorably sheared westerlies. Even so, given thermodynamic profiles becoming characterized by steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and large CAPE, scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development appears possible ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front by late afternoon. Aided by forcing for ascent supported by low-level warm advection beneath broadly difluent upper flow, activity may consolidate into one or two eastward/southeastward propagating clusters by Saturday evening. ...Northern Mid Atlantic into Champlain Valley... A corridor of moderate to large developing mixed-layer CAPE, ahead of the southeastward advancing cold front, and within preceding deepening surface troughing, seems likely to provide the focus for vigorous thunderstorm development by late Saturday afternoon. Although lapse rates may be modest, and stronger potential instability across the northern Mid Atlantic may be displaced to the south of the better flow/shear across Upstate New York into New England, the environment may still become conducive to scattered strong thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. If/when lingering uncertainties become more clear, it is possible that severe probabilities could still be increased a bit further in later outlooks for this period. ..Kerr.. 06/26/2025 Read more

MD 1454 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST NE/NORTHEAST KS INTO NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1454 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...Extreme southeast NE/northeast KS into northwest MO and southwest into central/northeast IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261736Z - 261930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind and possibly a tornado will increase with time this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A cold front is moving east across parts of eastern NE and northeast KS this afternoon, as a surface low moves from southeast SD into southern MN. While cloudiness has limited heating to some extent, rich low-level moisture is supporting MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg along/ahead of the front. Storms are already developing near a differential heating zone across central IA, with other development possible later this afternoon in closer proximity to the front. Both low-level and deep-layer shear increase with northward extent across the MCD area. Some threat for supercells with a threat for locally damaging wind and a tornado may develop into parts of central/northeast IA (see MCD 1452 for more information). Farther south, despite weaker shear, a broken line of storms with a threat of damaging wind may eventually develop along/ahead of the front from extreme southeast NE/northeast KS into southwest/south-central IA and northwest MO. Watch issuance is likely in order to address these threats. ..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 41129582 42199475 42789269 42849192 42779176 42189177 41519249 41139284 40719325 40239384 39859460 39909560 40439599 41129582 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0465 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0465 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1453 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1453 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...southern Appalachians into northern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 261648Z - 261845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging wind and some instances of severe hail possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is ongoing this morning across portions of eastern Tennessee and western South Carolina, with occasional severe pulses. Temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s to 90s across the Carolinas into Georgia and eastern Tennessee, with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. Continued heating under sunny skies (outside of the areas with convection) should yield further destabilization and MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg by the afternoon. Morning 12z sounding analysis indicates cool mid-levels, with modest mid-level lapse rates. Though flow aloft is weak, moderate instability and steepening low-level lapse with heating will allow for potential for wet downbursts and damaging outflow winds. A few isolated instances of severe hail will also be possible, owing to steep lapse rates. This area will be monitored for watch potential through the afternoon. ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...FFC... BMX... LAT...LON 33658324 33348429 33308482 33518519 33818538 34228526 34838478 36218303 36878212 37368145 37758054 38077982 38177941 38177877 38017842 37827816 37577801 37377792 37037815 36757885 36417954 36178008 36028034 35498090 34778186 34208257 33658324 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1452 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN IA...SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1452 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northeastern IA...southeast MN...southern/central WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 261629Z - 261830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe storms with a threat of a few tornadoes and isolated to scattered damaging winds may develop this afternoon. DISCUSSION...An MCV is moving out of the Missouri Valley toward southern MN, immediately in advance of a larger-scale mid/upper-level trough moving across the northern Plains. A warm front is draped from northern IA into southern WI. This front will move northward into this afternoon, as a surface wave moves along the front near the MN/IA border. Rich low-level moisture is in place near and south of the warm front. Midlevel lapse rates are weak, but diurnal heating of the very moist airmass will result in MLCAPE increasing into the 1500-2500 J/kg range along and south of the front. Visible satellite indicates some clearing north of the warm front from northeast IA into far southeast MN and southwest WI. This will allow moderate buoyancy to develop within a region where surface winds are backed and effective SRH is locally enhanced. As the MCV and surface wave move across the region, supercell development will be possible near/north of the warm front and near the surface low, with relatively enlarged low-level hodographs supporting a tornado threat. Eventually, a broken line of storms may eventually develop along a trailing cold front, which could also pose a threat of locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado. Watch issuance is likely by early afternoon in order to address these threats. ..Dean/Hart.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 42729316 42529386 42279476 43019445 43859394 44319263 44539145 44549027 44208887 43588845 43078852 42918895 42929015 42899223 42729316 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-037-067-089-131-191-261940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CHICKASAW FLOYD HOWARD MITCHELL WINNESHIEK MNC039-045-047-055-099-109-147-157-169-261940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED STEELE WABASHA WINONA WIC011-023-053-063-081-103-121-123-261940- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CRAWFORD JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND Read more

WW 0463 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 463 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 463 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-037-067-089-131-191-261940- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE CHICKASAW FLOYD HOWARD MITCHELL WINNESHIEK MNC039-045-047-055-099-109-147-157-169-261940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED STEELE WABASHA WINONA WIC011-023-053-063-081-103-121-123-261940- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CRAWFORD JACKSON LA CROSSE MONROE RICHLAND Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0464 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0464 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0464 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more