Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A subtle mid-level short wave trough will exit the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon. Mid-level flow and surface pressure gradients will relax across the Great Basin as the trough ejects northeastward through the day although resulting in sustained west-southwest surface winds around 10-15 mph during peak boundary layer mixing. However, locally elevated fire weather conditions, particularly leeward of mountain ranges within the Great Basin and northwestern Arizona and southwest Utah, can be expected today. Stronger winds of 15-25 mph are likely across the upper Snake River Plain but fuels are not as receptive to wildfire spread as regions farther south. ..Williams.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1248 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Widespread rainfall over the eastern two-thirds of the country will limit fuel status for most locations. West of the Rockies, dry conditions will continue with afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected. However, the strongest low/mid-level flow is expected to remain across the Pacific Northwest (where RH reductions won't be as pronounced) ahead of a low-amplitude mid-level trough. Localized elevated conditions may materialize across portions of southern ID and northern NV where the overlap of dry conditions, receptive fuels, and modest surface winds (15-20 mph) is most probable. Latest high-res ensemble guidance generally shows a weak signal for widespread and/or persistent elevated conditions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MO INTO SOUTHERN MN/WI...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. ..Hart/Thornton.. 06/26/2025 Read more