Severe Storms

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa and southwest Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Southern MN/IA/Southern WI... Early morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV moving northeastward into eastern NE. Surface analysis reveals a low over eastern NE, which is associated with this vorticity maximum as well. A stationary boundary extends northeastward from this low through northwestern IA to another low in the MN/IA/WI border intersection vicinity. This boundary, which separates a moist airmass characterized by 70s dewpoints from a more continental airmass with low 60s dewpoints, could act as a favored corridor for northeastward progress of the surface low throughout the day. At the same time, strengthening southerly low-level flow will increase the low-level moisture advection south of this boundary, resulting in some tightening of this boundary throughout the day. Some guidance suggests this boundary could move slightly northward as a warm front as well. This low-level moisture advection will also help offset surface dewpoint reductions due to mixing, with dewpoints likely remaining in the 70s along and south of the boundary. Strong heating of this moist airmass will bring temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, fostering airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected as the approaching vorticity maximum and associated surface low interact with this unstable airmass, with initiation occurring both near the surface low as well as farther east amid the convergence along the warm front. The development near the low should becoming linear quickly while the activity along the front should remain more cellular longer. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes within the moderately sheared and vorticity rich environment along the front. Damaging gusts will be possible with the linear segments as well, particularly in close vicinity to the surface low where mesoscale circulations could augment updrafts and downdrafts. ...Central/Eastern KS into Western/Central OK... Recent surface analysis reveals weak surface troughing to the south of a low over eastern NE. This troughing will likely shift eastward as its parent low progresses northeastward, with convergence along this boundary contributing to thunderstorms across central and eastern KS. The character of the boundary will become more diffuse with southern extent, but modest low-level confluence should still be enough to support afternoon thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak through this entire corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Southeast... Overnight convection has resulted in extensive cloudiness across much of the region this morning. Even so, ample low-level moisture remains in place and the airmass is expected to destabilize by the early afternoon amid strong heating. Initial development appears most likely near the westward progressing outflow moving across MS, with additional development later near a convectively generated vorticity maximum moving across central GA. Widespread storms are also expected across FL as an upper low drifts slowly west-northwestward. Shear will be weak areawide and a largely disorganized storm mode is anticipated. Surging outflow is possible with the strongest storms, fostering the potential for damaging gusts and also contributing to additional storm development. Several forward-propagating clusters are possible although their location, strength, and longevity are uncertain, precluding any increased severe probabilities with this outlook. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon as the airmass destabilizes amid strong daytime heating and ample low-level moisture. Residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations will act as favored areas for initiation. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa and southwest Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Southern MN/IA/Southern WI... Early morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV moving northeastward into eastern NE. Surface analysis reveals a low over eastern NE, which is associated with this vorticity maximum as well. A stationary boundary extends northeastward from this low through northwestern IA to another low in the MN/IA/WI border intersection vicinity. This boundary, which separates a moist airmass characterized by 70s dewpoints from a more continental airmass with low 60s dewpoints, could act as a favored corridor for northeastward progress of the surface low throughout the day. At the same time, strengthening southerly low-level flow will increase the low-level moisture advection south of this boundary, resulting in some tightening of this boundary throughout the day. Some guidance suggests this boundary could move slightly northward as a warm front as well. This low-level moisture advection will also help offset surface dewpoint reductions due to mixing, with dewpoints likely remaining in the 70s along and south of the boundary. Strong heating of this moist airmass will bring temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, fostering airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected as the approaching vorticity maximum and associated surface low interact with this unstable airmass, with initiation occurring both near the surface low as well as farther east amid the convergence along the warm front. The development near the low should becoming linear quickly while the activity along the front should remain more cellular longer. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes within the moderately sheared and vorticity rich environment along the front. Damaging gusts will be possible with the linear segments as well, particularly in close vicinity to the surface low where mesoscale circulations could augment updrafts and downdrafts. ...Central/Eastern KS into Western/Central OK... Recent surface analysis reveals weak surface troughing to the south of a low over eastern NE. This troughing will likely shift eastward as its parent low progresses northeastward, with convergence along this boundary contributing to thunderstorms across central and eastern KS. The character of the boundary will become more diffuse with southern extent, but modest low-level confluence should still be enough to support afternoon thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak through this entire corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Southeast... Overnight convection has resulted in extensive cloudiness across much of the region this morning. Even so, ample low-level moisture remains in place and the airmass is expected to destabilize by the early afternoon amid strong heating. Initial development appears most likely near the westward progressing outflow moving across MS, with additional development later near a convectively generated vorticity maximum moving across central GA. Widespread storms are also expected across FL as an upper low drifts slowly west-northwestward. Shear will be weak areawide and a largely disorganized storm mode is anticipated. Surging outflow is possible with the strongest storms, fostering the potential for damaging gusts and also contributing to additional storm development. Several forward-propagating clusters are possible although their location, strength, and longevity are uncertain, precluding any increased severe probabilities with this outlook. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon as the airmass destabilizes amid strong daytime heating and ample low-level moisture. Residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations will act as favored areas for initiation. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa and southwest Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Southern MN/IA/Southern WI... Early morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV moving northeastward into eastern NE. Surface analysis reveals a low over eastern NE, which is associated with this vorticity maximum as well. A stationary boundary extends northeastward from this low through northwestern IA to another low in the MN/IA/WI border intersection vicinity. This boundary, which separates a moist airmass characterized by 70s dewpoints from a more continental airmass with low 60s dewpoints, could act as a favored corridor for northeastward progress of the surface low throughout the day. At the same time, strengthening southerly low-level flow will increase the low-level moisture advection south of this boundary, resulting in some tightening of this boundary throughout the day. Some guidance suggests this boundary could move slightly northward as a warm front as well. This low-level moisture advection will also help offset surface dewpoint reductions due to mixing, with dewpoints likely remaining in the 70s along and south of the boundary. Strong heating of this moist airmass will bring temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, fostering airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected as the approaching vorticity maximum and associated surface low interact with this unstable airmass, with initiation occurring both near the surface low as well as farther east amid the convergence along the warm front. The development near the low should becoming linear quickly while the activity along the front should remain more cellular longer. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes within the moderately sheared and vorticity rich environment along the front. Damaging gusts will be possible with the linear segments as well, particularly in close vicinity to the surface low where mesoscale circulations could augment updrafts and downdrafts. ...Central/Eastern KS into Western/Central OK... Recent surface analysis reveals weak surface troughing to the south of a low over eastern NE. This troughing will likely shift eastward as its parent low progresses northeastward, with convergence along this boundary contributing to thunderstorms across central and eastern KS. The character of the boundary will become more diffuse with southern extent, but modest low-level confluence should still be enough to support afternoon thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak through this entire corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Southeast... Overnight convection has resulted in extensive cloudiness across much of the region this morning. Even so, ample low-level moisture remains in place and the airmass is expected to destabilize by the early afternoon amid strong heating. Initial development appears most likely near the westward progressing outflow moving across MS, with additional development later near a convectively generated vorticity maximum moving across central GA. Widespread storms are also expected across FL as an upper low drifts slowly west-northwestward. Shear will be weak areawide and a largely disorganized storm mode is anticipated. Surging outflow is possible with the strongest storms, fostering the potential for damaging gusts and also contributing to additional storm development. Several forward-propagating clusters are possible although their location, strength, and longevity are uncertain, precluding any increased severe probabilities with this outlook. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon as the airmass destabilizes amid strong daytime heating and ample low-level moisture. Residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations will act as favored areas for initiation. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa and southwest Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Southern MN/IA/Southern WI... Early morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV moving northeastward into eastern NE. Surface analysis reveals a low over eastern NE, which is associated with this vorticity maximum as well. A stationary boundary extends northeastward from this low through northwestern IA to another low in the MN/IA/WI border intersection vicinity. This boundary, which separates a moist airmass characterized by 70s dewpoints from a more continental airmass with low 60s dewpoints, could act as a favored corridor for northeastward progress of the surface low throughout the day. At the same time, strengthening southerly low-level flow will increase the low-level moisture advection south of this boundary, resulting in some tightening of this boundary throughout the day. Some guidance suggests this boundary could move slightly northward as a warm front as well. This low-level moisture advection will also help offset surface dewpoint reductions due to mixing, with dewpoints likely remaining in the 70s along and south of the boundary. Strong heating of this moist airmass will bring temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, fostering airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected as the approaching vorticity maximum and associated surface low interact with this unstable airmass, with initiation occurring both near the surface low as well as farther east amid the convergence along the warm front. The development near the low should becoming linear quickly while the activity along the front should remain more cellular longer. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes within the moderately sheared and vorticity rich environment along the front. Damaging gusts will be possible with the linear segments as well, particularly in close vicinity to the surface low where mesoscale circulations could augment updrafts and downdrafts. ...Central/Eastern KS into Western/Central OK... Recent surface analysis reveals weak surface troughing to the south of a low over eastern NE. This troughing will likely shift eastward as its parent low progresses northeastward, with convergence along this boundary contributing to thunderstorms across central and eastern KS. The character of the boundary will become more diffuse with southern extent, but modest low-level confluence should still be enough to support afternoon thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak through this entire corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Southeast... Overnight convection has resulted in extensive cloudiness across much of the region this morning. Even so, ample low-level moisture remains in place and the airmass is expected to destabilize by the early afternoon amid strong heating. Initial development appears most likely near the westward progressing outflow moving across MS, with additional development later near a convectively generated vorticity maximum moving across central GA. Widespread storms are also expected across FL as an upper low drifts slowly west-northwestward. Shear will be weak areawide and a largely disorganized storm mode is anticipated. Surging outflow is possible with the strongest storms, fostering the potential for damaging gusts and also contributing to additional storm development. Several forward-propagating clusters are possible although their location, strength, and longevity are uncertain, precluding any increased severe probabilities with this outlook. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon as the airmass destabilizes amid strong daytime heating and ample low-level moisture. Residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations will act as favored areas for initiation. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MN...NORTHERN IA AND SOUTHERN WI... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this afternoon from northern Iowa and southwest Minnesota into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana. ...Southern MN/IA/Southern WI... Early morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV moving northeastward into eastern NE. Surface analysis reveals a low over eastern NE, which is associated with this vorticity maximum as well. A stationary boundary extends northeastward from this low through northwestern IA to another low in the MN/IA/WI border intersection vicinity. This boundary, which separates a moist airmass characterized by 70s dewpoints from a more continental airmass with low 60s dewpoints, could act as a favored corridor for northeastward progress of the surface low throughout the day. At the same time, strengthening southerly low-level flow will increase the low-level moisture advection south of this boundary, resulting in some tightening of this boundary throughout the day. Some guidance suggests this boundary could move slightly northward as a warm front as well. This low-level moisture advection will also help offset surface dewpoint reductions due to mixing, with dewpoints likely remaining in the 70s along and south of the boundary. Strong heating of this moist airmass will bring temperatures in the upper 70s/low 80s, fostering airmass destabilization and strong buoyancy by the early afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected as the approaching vorticity maximum and associated surface low interact with this unstable airmass, with initiation occurring both near the surface low as well as farther east amid the convergence along the warm front. The development near the low should becoming linear quickly while the activity along the front should remain more cellular longer. The initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential to produce a few tornadoes within the moderately sheared and vorticity rich environment along the front. Damaging gusts will be possible with the linear segments as well, particularly in close vicinity to the surface low where mesoscale circulations could augment updrafts and downdrafts. ...Central/Eastern KS into Western/Central OK... Recent surface analysis reveals weak surface troughing to the south of a low over eastern NE. This troughing will likely shift eastward as its parent low progresses northeastward, with convergence along this boundary contributing to thunderstorms across central and eastern KS. The character of the boundary will become more diffuse with southern extent, but modest low-level confluence should still be enough to support afternoon thunderstorm development. Vertical shear will be weak through this entire corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few hours this afternoon/evening. ...Southeast... Overnight convection has resulted in extensive cloudiness across much of the region this morning. Even so, ample low-level moisture remains in place and the airmass is expected to destabilize by the early afternoon amid strong heating. Initial development appears most likely near the westward progressing outflow moving across MS, with additional development later near a convectively generated vorticity maximum moving across central GA. Widespread storms are also expected across FL as an upper low drifts slowly west-northwestward. Shear will be weak areawide and a largely disorganized storm mode is anticipated. Surging outflow is possible with the strongest storms, fostering the potential for damaging gusts and also contributing to additional storm development. Several forward-propagating clusters are possible although their location, strength, and longevity are uncertain, precluding any increased severe probabilities with this outlook. ...MT this afternoon/evening... A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this evening. ...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon... Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon as the airmass destabilizes amid strong daytime heating and ample low-level moisture. Residual boundaries from prior convection, and terrain circulations will act as favored areas for initiation. Vertical shear will be weak, but steep low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid afternoon into the evening. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 06/26/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On the large scale, a low-amplitude upper trough over the northern Plains on Sunday/D4 will amplify as it moves toward the upper Great Lakes into Monday/D5, and more so into Tuesday/D6 when it will stretch across into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will extend into the northern to central Plains on Sunday/D4, with a trough affecting the upper MS Valley to central Plains. This trough/front will push farther south on Monday/D5, extending roughly from the OH Valley into the southern Plains, and eventually, into the Gulf Coast states into Wednesday/D7 as high pressure spreads into the MS Valley. For the period, instability looks to be strongest on Sunday/D4 ahead of the front from NE/KS into IA/MO/IL with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints common. While unstable, only weak westerly flow aloft will be present, and this will likely result in south to southwest propagating cluster of storms producing areas of gusty winds. Given substantial storm coverage over much of the central Plains to upper/middle MS Valley, predictability remains low for denoting precise risk areas. A low-end risk of severe storms with wind potential could develop into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday/D6 as the Great Lakes/Northeast trough amplifies with westerlies increasing to 30 to perhaps 40 kt at 500 mb. Otherwise, scattered storms will also occur away from this boundary, across much of the Southeast as the moisture and instability remain in place in a weak shear environment. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On the large scale, a low-amplitude upper trough over the northern Plains on Sunday/D4 will amplify as it moves toward the upper Great Lakes into Monday/D5, and more so into Tuesday/D6 when it will stretch across into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will extend into the northern to central Plains on Sunday/D4, with a trough affecting the upper MS Valley to central Plains. This trough/front will push farther south on Monday/D5, extending roughly from the OH Valley into the southern Plains, and eventually, into the Gulf Coast states into Wednesday/D7 as high pressure spreads into the MS Valley. For the period, instability looks to be strongest on Sunday/D4 ahead of the front from NE/KS into IA/MO/IL with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints common. While unstable, only weak westerly flow aloft will be present, and this will likely result in south to southwest propagating cluster of storms producing areas of gusty winds. Given substantial storm coverage over much of the central Plains to upper/middle MS Valley, predictability remains low for denoting precise risk areas. A low-end risk of severe storms with wind potential could develop into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday/D6 as the Great Lakes/Northeast trough amplifies with westerlies increasing to 30 to perhaps 40 kt at 500 mb. Otherwise, scattered storms will also occur away from this boundary, across much of the Southeast as the moisture and instability remain in place in a weak shear environment. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On the large scale, a low-amplitude upper trough over the northern Plains on Sunday/D4 will amplify as it moves toward the upper Great Lakes into Monday/D5, and more so into Tuesday/D6 when it will stretch across into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will extend into the northern to central Plains on Sunday/D4, with a trough affecting the upper MS Valley to central Plains. This trough/front will push farther south on Monday/D5, extending roughly from the OH Valley into the southern Plains, and eventually, into the Gulf Coast states into Wednesday/D7 as high pressure spreads into the MS Valley. For the period, instability looks to be strongest on Sunday/D4 ahead of the front from NE/KS into IA/MO/IL with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints common. While unstable, only weak westerly flow aloft will be present, and this will likely result in south to southwest propagating cluster of storms producing areas of gusty winds. Given substantial storm coverage over much of the central Plains to upper/middle MS Valley, predictability remains low for denoting precise risk areas. A low-end risk of severe storms with wind potential could develop into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday/D6 as the Great Lakes/Northeast trough amplifies with westerlies increasing to 30 to perhaps 40 kt at 500 mb. Otherwise, scattered storms will also occur away from this boundary, across much of the Southeast as the moisture and instability remain in place in a weak shear environment. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On the large scale, a low-amplitude upper trough over the northern Plains on Sunday/D4 will amplify as it moves toward the upper Great Lakes into Monday/D5, and more so into Tuesday/D6 when it will stretch across into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will extend into the northern to central Plains on Sunday/D4, with a trough affecting the upper MS Valley to central Plains. This trough/front will push farther south on Monday/D5, extending roughly from the OH Valley into the southern Plains, and eventually, into the Gulf Coast states into Wednesday/D7 as high pressure spreads into the MS Valley. For the period, instability looks to be strongest on Sunday/D4 ahead of the front from NE/KS into IA/MO/IL with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints common. While unstable, only weak westerly flow aloft will be present, and this will likely result in south to southwest propagating cluster of storms producing areas of gusty winds. Given substantial storm coverage over much of the central Plains to upper/middle MS Valley, predictability remains low for denoting precise risk areas. A low-end risk of severe storms with wind potential could develop into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday/D6 as the Great Lakes/Northeast trough amplifies with westerlies increasing to 30 to perhaps 40 kt at 500 mb. Otherwise, scattered storms will also occur away from this boundary, across much of the Southeast as the moisture and instability remain in place in a weak shear environment. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On the large scale, a low-amplitude upper trough over the northern Plains on Sunday/D4 will amplify as it moves toward the upper Great Lakes into Monday/D5, and more so into Tuesday/D6 when it will stretch across into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will extend into the northern to central Plains on Sunday/D4, with a trough affecting the upper MS Valley to central Plains. This trough/front will push farther south on Monday/D5, extending roughly from the OH Valley into the southern Plains, and eventually, into the Gulf Coast states into Wednesday/D7 as high pressure spreads into the MS Valley. For the period, instability looks to be strongest on Sunday/D4 ahead of the front from NE/KS into IA/MO/IL with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints common. While unstable, only weak westerly flow aloft will be present, and this will likely result in south to southwest propagating cluster of storms producing areas of gusty winds. Given substantial storm coverage over much of the central Plains to upper/middle MS Valley, predictability remains low for denoting precise risk areas. A low-end risk of severe storms with wind potential could develop into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday/D6 as the Great Lakes/Northeast trough amplifies with westerlies increasing to 30 to perhaps 40 kt at 500 mb. Otherwise, scattered storms will also occur away from this boundary, across much of the Southeast as the moisture and instability remain in place in a weak shear environment. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On the large scale, a low-amplitude upper trough over the northern Plains on Sunday/D4 will amplify as it moves toward the upper Great Lakes into Monday/D5, and more so into Tuesday/D6 when it will stretch across into the Northeast. At the surface, high pressure will extend into the northern to central Plains on Sunday/D4, with a trough affecting the upper MS Valley to central Plains. This trough/front will push farther south on Monday/D5, extending roughly from the OH Valley into the southern Plains, and eventually, into the Gulf Coast states into Wednesday/D7 as high pressure spreads into the MS Valley. For the period, instability looks to be strongest on Sunday/D4 ahead of the front from NE/KS into IA/MO/IL with upper 60s to lower 70s F dewpoints common. While unstable, only weak westerly flow aloft will be present, and this will likely result in south to southwest propagating cluster of storms producing areas of gusty winds. Given substantial storm coverage over much of the central Plains to upper/middle MS Valley, predictability remains low for denoting precise risk areas. A low-end risk of severe storms with wind potential could develop into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday/D6 as the Great Lakes/Northeast trough amplifies with westerlies increasing to 30 to perhaps 40 kt at 500 mb. Otherwise, scattered storms will also occur away from this boundary, across much of the Southeast as the moisture and instability remain in place in a weak shear environment. Read more

MD 1451 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462... FOR SOUTHERN GEORGIA...EAST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1451 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...Southern Georgia...east-central Alabama Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462... Valid 260553Z - 260800Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 462 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/damaging gusts remain possible, particularly where temperatures have remained in the upper 70s/low 80s F. DISCUSSION...Two clusters of thunderstorms continue southwestward tonight. The most organized linear segment is moving into southern Georgia. While diurnal cooling will occur, the very moist airmass will slow this process. The potential for strong surface gusts will be maximized with the convection moving into south-central Georgia as temperatures are still in the mid 70s to around 80 F. Farther northwest, cooler temperatures are in place as convection had impacted those areas earlier this evening. The general expectation is for convection to gradually weaken over time. Occasional strong/damaging gusts will remain possible, however. ..Wendt.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 32288589 32848568 33378513 33328489 31718198 30668250 30548302 30638417 31578535 32288589 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with wind and hail potential will be possible over parts of the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave ridging will occur over the upper MS Valley during the day on Saturday, before height falls arrive in association with a low-amplitude upper trough moving across MT and the Dakotas. This will allow a large area of moisture and instability to build, with MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg forecast from the eastern Dakotas into MN and IA. A surface trough is forecast to deepen from the eastern Dakotas into central NE, as southerly winds maintain a northward flux of theta-e with a deepening moist boundary layer. The end result should be storms developing within this trough, which will then spread east and persist through evening. While shear will not be particularly strong, steep midlevel lapse rates combined with veering winds with height will favor initial robust cells capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado risk, before storms form into propagating clusters with damaging winds likely. The surging theta-e out of the southwest during the evening may allow severe storms to persist into western WI late. Elsewhere, widespread moisture and instability will remain over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, with scattered clusters of afternoon storms likely. Pockets of stronger instability may support localized strong to damaging gusts. Predictability is currently too low to denote precisely which areas may see a low-end severe gust threat. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with wind and hail potential will be possible over parts of the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave ridging will occur over the upper MS Valley during the day on Saturday, before height falls arrive in association with a low-amplitude upper trough moving across MT and the Dakotas. This will allow a large area of moisture and instability to build, with MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg forecast from the eastern Dakotas into MN and IA. A surface trough is forecast to deepen from the eastern Dakotas into central NE, as southerly winds maintain a northward flux of theta-e with a deepening moist boundary layer. The end result should be storms developing within this trough, which will then spread east and persist through evening. While shear will not be particularly strong, steep midlevel lapse rates combined with veering winds with height will favor initial robust cells capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado risk, before storms form into propagating clusters with damaging winds likely. The surging theta-e out of the southwest during the evening may allow severe storms to persist into western WI late. Elsewhere, widespread moisture and instability will remain over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, with scattered clusters of afternoon storms likely. Pockets of stronger instability may support localized strong to damaging gusts. Predictability is currently too low to denote precisely which areas may see a low-end severe gust threat. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with wind and hail potential will be possible over parts of the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave ridging will occur over the upper MS Valley during the day on Saturday, before height falls arrive in association with a low-amplitude upper trough moving across MT and the Dakotas. This will allow a large area of moisture and instability to build, with MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg forecast from the eastern Dakotas into MN and IA. A surface trough is forecast to deepen from the eastern Dakotas into central NE, as southerly winds maintain a northward flux of theta-e with a deepening moist boundary layer. The end result should be storms developing within this trough, which will then spread east and persist through evening. While shear will not be particularly strong, steep midlevel lapse rates combined with veering winds with height will favor initial robust cells capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado risk, before storms form into propagating clusters with damaging winds likely. The surging theta-e out of the southwest during the evening may allow severe storms to persist into western WI late. Elsewhere, widespread moisture and instability will remain over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, with scattered clusters of afternoon storms likely. Pockets of stronger instability may support localized strong to damaging gusts. Predictability is currently too low to denote precisely which areas may see a low-end severe gust threat. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with wind and hail potential will be possible over parts of the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave ridging will occur over the upper MS Valley during the day on Saturday, before height falls arrive in association with a low-amplitude upper trough moving across MT and the Dakotas. This will allow a large area of moisture and instability to build, with MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg forecast from the eastern Dakotas into MN and IA. A surface trough is forecast to deepen from the eastern Dakotas into central NE, as southerly winds maintain a northward flux of theta-e with a deepening moist boundary layer. The end result should be storms developing within this trough, which will then spread east and persist through evening. While shear will not be particularly strong, steep midlevel lapse rates combined with veering winds with height will favor initial robust cells capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado risk, before storms form into propagating clusters with damaging winds likely. The surging theta-e out of the southwest during the evening may allow severe storms to persist into western WI late. Elsewhere, widespread moisture and instability will remain over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, with scattered clusters of afternoon storms likely. Pockets of stronger instability may support localized strong to damaging gusts. Predictability is currently too low to denote precisely which areas may see a low-end severe gust threat. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with wind and hail potential will be possible over parts of the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave ridging will occur over the upper MS Valley during the day on Saturday, before height falls arrive in association with a low-amplitude upper trough moving across MT and the Dakotas. This will allow a large area of moisture and instability to build, with MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg forecast from the eastern Dakotas into MN and IA. A surface trough is forecast to deepen from the eastern Dakotas into central NE, as southerly winds maintain a northward flux of theta-e with a deepening moist boundary layer. The end result should be storms developing within this trough, which will then spread east and persist through evening. While shear will not be particularly strong, steep midlevel lapse rates combined with veering winds with height will favor initial robust cells capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado risk, before storms form into propagating clusters with damaging winds likely. The surging theta-e out of the southwest during the evening may allow severe storms to persist into western WI late. Elsewhere, widespread moisture and instability will remain over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, with scattered clusters of afternoon storms likely. Pockets of stronger instability may support localized strong to damaging gusts. Predictability is currently too low to denote precisely which areas may see a low-end severe gust threat. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms with wind and hail potential will be possible over parts of the northern Plains to upper Mississippi Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Shortwave ridging will occur over the upper MS Valley during the day on Saturday, before height falls arrive in association with a low-amplitude upper trough moving across MT and the Dakotas. This will allow a large area of moisture and instability to build, with MUCAPE over 4000 J/kg forecast from the eastern Dakotas into MN and IA. A surface trough is forecast to deepen from the eastern Dakotas into central NE, as southerly winds maintain a northward flux of theta-e with a deepening moist boundary layer. The end result should be storms developing within this trough, which will then spread east and persist through evening. While shear will not be particularly strong, steep midlevel lapse rates combined with veering winds with height will favor initial robust cells capable of large hail and perhaps a brief tornado risk, before storms form into propagating clusters with damaging winds likely. The surging theta-e out of the southwest during the evening may allow severe storms to persist into western WI late. Elsewhere, widespread moisture and instability will remain over the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, with scattered clusters of afternoon storms likely. Pockets of stronger instability may support localized strong to damaging gusts. Predictability is currently too low to denote precisely which areas may see a low-end severe gust threat. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging winds are forecast over parts of the northern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A low amplitude trough will move across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Friday, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds into the Dakotas. As this occurs, a surface trough will develop over the western Dakotas, providing a focus for thunderstorms during the day. To the east, a weaker wave will move from lower MI into the lower Great Lakes, with a surface low enhancing convergence/lift. The air mass will remain moist and unstable over much of the central and eastern CONUS, supporting scattered storms over much of the area. The strongest instability is expected over the northern Plains in advance of the upper system. Otherwise, a weak upper low will remain over GA/FL providing cool midlevel temperatures and aiding daytime storm development. ...Northern Plains... Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface trough, with scattered areas of storms developing from northeast CO into western NE and from the western into the central Dakotas. Supercells are most likely across the Dakotas beneath the stronger flow aloft, with the strongest cells producing very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south across NE, CO and KS, deep mixed layers should favor strong outflow and localized wind damage. Storms may increase again during the evening over eastern ND and northern MN with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb late. ...Southeast and Mid Atlantic... A weak surface trough will develop from VA across the Carolinas and into GA with strong heating. A moist and unstable air mass will again favor areas of thunderstorms beneath the upper ridge. Lapse rates aloft and therefore total instability will not be as strong as previous days, but widely scattered strong to damaging gusts may still occur during the afternoon across the entire region. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging winds are forecast over parts of the northern Plains Friday afternoon and evening. Sporadic damaging gusts may also occur over parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. ...Synopsis... A low amplitude trough will move across the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains on Friday, with 40+ kt 500 mb winds into the Dakotas. As this occurs, a surface trough will develop over the western Dakotas, providing a focus for thunderstorms during the day. To the east, a weaker wave will move from lower MI into the lower Great Lakes, with a surface low enhancing convergence/lift. The air mass will remain moist and unstable over much of the central and eastern CONUS, supporting scattered storms over much of the area. The strongest instability is expected over the northern Plains in advance of the upper system. Otherwise, a weak upper low will remain over GA/FL providing cool midlevel temperatures and aiding daytime storm development. ...Northern Plains... Strong heating will lead to an uncapped air mass within the surface trough, with scattered areas of storms developing from northeast CO into western NE and from the western into the central Dakotas. Supercells are most likely across the Dakotas beneath the stronger flow aloft, with the strongest cells producing very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south across NE, CO and KS, deep mixed layers should favor strong outflow and localized wind damage. Storms may increase again during the evening over eastern ND and northern MN with increasing southwest flow at 850 mb late. ...Southeast and Mid Atlantic... A weak surface trough will develop from VA across the Carolinas and into GA with strong heating. A moist and unstable air mass will again favor areas of thunderstorms beneath the upper ridge. Lapse rates aloft and therefore total instability will not be as strong as previous days, but widely scattered strong to damaging gusts may still occur during the afternoon across the entire region. ..Jewell.. 06/26/2025 Read more