Severe Storms

MD 1430 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458... FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1430 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0505 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado and adjacent portions of southwest Nebraska Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458... Valid 242205Z - 250000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458 continues. SUMMARY...A severe wind/hail threat will persist across northeast Colorado into adjacent portions of far southwest Nebraska downstream of a persistent, organized cluster. Downstream watch issuance is possible if this cluster maintains intensity as it exits WW 458. DISCUSSION...An organized cluster with a history of producing severe winds continues to push to the northeast across northeastern CO. Reflectivity and velocity imagery from KTFG shows new updraft development along the leading edge of the outflow even as the cluster migrates into a somewhat cool/more stable air mass where temperatures remain in the mid to upper 70s. Recent forecast soundings suggest that the downstream thermodynamic conditions will continue to support surface-based parcels with only modest inhibition (-25 to -50 J/kg), but weak warm air advection across the CO/KS/NE tri-state region will support some degree of additional destabilization immediately ahead of the cluster. This should help maintain storm intensity as it continues to the northeast at least for the next couple of hours. Severe winds, most likely between 55-70 mph, will remain the predominant hazard. Sporadic large hail appears possible given the intense updrafts, noted in GOES IR imagery, and sufficient deep-layer wind shear that will support this threat. Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance downstream into southwest NE may be needed if the cluster maintains intensity as it exits WW 458.. ..Moore.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39840380 40040390 40260406 40410425 40590430 41260350 41500299 41570274 41570246 41460212 41260187 41070175 40850172 40620173 40410190 40300211 39730362 39840380 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE PUB TO 35 SE DEN TO 45 W DEN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430 ..MOORE..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-031-039-073-075-087-095-115-121-123-250040- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER ELBERT LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 458 SEVERE TSTM CO 241905Z - 250200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 458 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM MDT Tue Jun 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will develop northeastward out of the foothills into the adjacent Plains this afternoon. A few intense storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles north northwest of Akron CO to 30 miles southeast of Colorado Springs CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Hart Read more

MD 1429 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA INTO EXTREME WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 1429 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme northwest Pennsylvania into extreme western New York Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 242049Z - 242315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts cannot be ruled out over the next several hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms have initiated and intensified off of surface boundaries and confluence zones over the past couple of hours. Deep-layer flow and shear, as well as buoyancy, are modest at best across the region (e.g. 1000 J/kg MLCAPE amid less than 20 kts of effective bulk shear). As such, a couple of brief downbursts may cause sparse tree damage in the near-term. Relatively more robust storms are currently tracking across extreme southeast Ontario. These storms may cross Lake Erie a few hours for now, perhaps with a slightly greater damaging gust threat. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain localized, precluding the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41598064 41807996 42337916 42647894 42897892 43097892 43327874 43327847 43027842 42337838 41957850 41657862 41447895 41377948 41267988 41238016 41228040 41598064 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 24 20:30:10 UTC 2025.

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-031-035-039-041-073-075-087-121-123-242140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-031-035-039-041-073-075-087-121-123-242140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0458 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 458 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KERR..06/24/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...PUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 458 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-031-035-039-041-073-075-087-121-123-242140- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE DENVER DOUGLAS ELBERT EL PASO LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN WASHINGTON WELD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 1428 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 1428 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Areas affected...Portions of northern New York into northern Vermont and far northern New Hampshire Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 241904Z - 242030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may occur across portions of northern New England this afternoon. Given the expected limited coverage of severe gusts, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not currently anticipated. DISCUSSION...Continued strong diurnal heating is supporting a general agitation of a cumulus field over northern New England, with recent thunderstorm initiation noted across extreme southeast Ontario. Here, surface temperatures are around 90 F amid near 70 F surface dewpoints, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. These storms are initiating along the periphery of the upper-level ridge, where modest mid-level flow is supporting 25-30 kts of effective bulk shear. As such, the strongest storms may become multicells capable of producing a couple of strong to perhaps damaging wind gusts. The severe threat should be quite limited, so a WW issuance is not currently expected. ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF... LAT...LON 44337584 44577572 44827531 44987497 45077434 45047299 45067177 45037158 44997152 44657131 43957173 43727255 43767402 43917492 44147551 44337584 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

MD 1427 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND ERN WYOMING
Mesoscale Discussion 1427 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Areas affected...parts of north central Colorado and ern Wyoming Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 241835Z - 242030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development is likely to commence along the eastern slopes of the Front Range and Laramie Mountains during the next few hours. This probably will include a few supercells impacting the Greater Denver vicinity through 3-4 PM MDT. DISCUSSION...Downstream of slow moving mid-level troughing across parts of the Southwest and Great Basin, southeasterly low-level flow is maintaining seasonably moist boundary-layer air across the high plains into the eastern slopes of the Front Range and Laramie Mountains. Beneath relatively warm mid-level air to the east of the higher terrain, associated low-level cloud cover is slowing destabilization to the east/northeast of the Laramies through the Cheyenne Ridge vicinity. However, across the Front Range, near the Greater Denver vicinity, insolation is more rapidly eroding inhibition and beginning to increase mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg. With additional surface heating, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that thunderstorms may begin initiating along the eastern slopes of the higher terrain, particularly near the Denver area, within the next hour or two, before gradually increasing and intensifying through 21-22Z. In the presence of moderate to strong southwesterly flow in the 500-300 mb layer, deep-layer shear appears more than sufficient to support supercells. These may pose a risk for large hail, and at least some potential for brief tornadoes, as they attempt to propagate eastward off the higher terrain. Due to the warm mid-level environment near/just above 700 mb, stronger storms might be, at least initially, slow to propagate away from the higher terrain. ..Kerr/Hart.. 06/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 43260560 42470476 41370437 40330385 39230445 40240534 41990558 43110642 43260560 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into Vermont this afternoon. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints -- contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458. ..Weinman.. 06/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/ ...High Plains... Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s, coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours. ...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH... A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today, with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary. This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable, leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells. ...TN/NC/VA Mountains... A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak, but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in the strongest cells. Read more