Severe Storms

MD 1457 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN TEXAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...INTO FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1457 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Areas affected...portions of far northern Texas...western Oklahoma...into far southern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 261911Z - 262115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Storms with potential for strong to severe wind possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development is ongoing across far western Oklahoma this afternoon where daytime heating has allowed MLCIN to erode. Temperatures are now in the mid 80s to mid 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to 70s. MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg is noted in surface objective analysis. Though the background flow is generally weak, steep lapse rates around 8-8.5 C/km and moist profiles will support a few strong storms capable of strong to severe winds through the afternoon. Given the lack of shear for a more widespread and organized threat, a watch is unlikely to be needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 06/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 34530051 35969985 37069920 37199805 37139710 36859680 36529672 36189673 35259736 34209807 34069885 34260004 34530051 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH Read more

WW 0465 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 465 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459 ..DEAN..06/26/25 ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ARX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 465 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-023-027-029-033-039-043- 049-051-053-055-065-069-071-073-075-077-079-083-095-099-107-113- 117-121-123-125-127-129-135-137-145-153-155-157-159-165-169-171- 173-175-179-181-185-187-195-197-262140- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE AUDUBON BENTON BLACK HAWK BOONE BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CARROLL CASS CERRO GORDO CLARKE CLAYTON DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR DELAWARE FAYETTE FRANKLIN FREMONT GREENE GRUNDY GUTHRIE HAMILTON HARDIN IOWA JASPER KEOKUK LINN LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MILLS MONROE MONTGOMERY PAGE POLK POTTAWATTAMIE POWESHIEK RINGGOLD SHELBY STORY TAMA TAYLOR Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN...AND FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated wind damage and a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon from northwest Missouri into Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and southern Wisconsin. Scattered wind damage will be possible from the Mid-Atlantic into the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight risk was expanded eastward in IA and northern MO -- where warm/moist boundary-layer conditions should support the maintenance of an eastward-moving line of storms (with an associated severe-wind risk) into this evening. Reference Severe Thunderstorm Watch 465 for more information on the severe risk here. Farther north, the potential for tornadoes will continue with both pre-frontal cells within the baroclinic zone in southern WI and with the primary confluence band advancing eastward out of southeastern MN. An upgrade to 10-percent tornado probabilities was considered, but overall confidence in this scenario was too low for the upgrade at this time. For more details, see Tornado Watch 463 and MCD 1458. Finally, the damaging wind gusts will remain possible with evolving storms in the Mid-Atlantic (within Severe Thunderstorm Watch 464). ..Weinman.. 06/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025/ ...Upper Midwest... A shortwave trough is evident this morning over NE/SD moving eastward. Lift ahead of this feature will encourage scattered thunderstorm development by early afternoon near the surface low and along a weak cold front over western IA. These storms will track southeastward into a warm and very moist air mass, where MLCAPE values will be 2000-3000 J/kg. Steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of damaging winds as the storms spread southeastward through early evening. From the surface low eastward into southern WI, a corridor of backed low-level winds and enhanced shear along the warm front will be favorable for a few discrete supercells. Similar to yesterday (although perhaps not quite as favorable), there is a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and early evening. ...Mid-Atlantic to Southern Appalachians... Full sunshine is occurring again today from southeast PA to the western Carolinas and north GA. This corridor will be hot/humid again today, leading to scattered thunderstorms. Winds aloft are weak, suggesting disorganized/pulse convective modes. However, steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE values will once again result in a risk of locally damaging wind gusts through the afternoon and early evening. Despite the expected weak winds aloft, will introduce a SLGT risk for this corridor given the consensus of model guidance supporting the threat. Read more