Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will shift eastward into the Four Corners vicinity today. At the surface, high pressure will be maintained in the Great Basin into the northern Rockies while high pressure in the southern Plains will weaken. Dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains, but fuel receptiveness is poor and winds will be quite light. Fire weather concerns continue to minimal across the CONUS. ..Wendt.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the southern Appalachians through 12Z Wednesday. While the associated surface reflection will be weak, mid-level height falls will aid in moderate large-scale ascent. While 850-700 mb moisture will be limited, with generally 40s surface dew points emanating east from the Deep South, cooling mid-level temperatures might support minimal elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. Guidance largely suggests that MUCAPE will remain below 100 J/kg. A couple lightning flashes might occur towards the southern Piedmont from the Carolinas into GA early Wednesday morning. This appears to be below the 10 percent probability threshold needed for a thunder area delineation. ..Grams.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the southern Appalachians through 12Z Wednesday. While the associated surface reflection will be weak, mid-level height falls will aid in moderate large-scale ascent. While 850-700 mb moisture will be limited, with generally 40s surface dew points emanating east from the Deep South, cooling mid-level temperatures might support minimal elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. Guidance largely suggests that MUCAPE will remain below 100 J/kg. A couple lightning flashes might occur towards the southern Piedmont from the Carolinas into GA early Wednesday morning. This appears to be below the 10 percent probability threshold needed for a thunder area delineation. ..Grams.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will move southeastward from the Upper Midwest towards the southern Appalachians through 12Z Wednesday. While the associated surface reflection will be weak, mid-level height falls will aid in moderate large-scale ascent. While 850-700 mb moisture will be limited, with generally 40s surface dew points emanating east from the Deep South, cooling mid-level temperatures might support minimal elevated buoyancy by Tuesday night. Guidance largely suggests that MUCAPE will remain below 100 J/kg. A couple lightning flashes might occur towards the southern Piedmont from the Carolinas into GA early Wednesday morning. This appears to be below the 10 percent probability threshold needed for a thunder area delineation. ..Grams.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong 12hr midlevel height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest ahead of a short-wave trough that will eject inland along the WA/OR Coast after 06z. Large-scale ascent/moistening, and steepening lapse rates should contribute to weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings suggest most convection will remain too shallow to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong 12hr midlevel height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest ahead of a short-wave trough that will eject inland along the WA/OR Coast after 06z. Large-scale ascent/moistening, and steepening lapse rates should contribute to weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings suggest most convection will remain too shallow to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong 12hr midlevel height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest ahead of a short-wave trough that will eject inland along the WA/OR Coast after 06z. Large-scale ascent/moistening, and steepening lapse rates should contribute to weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings suggest most convection will remain too shallow to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Pacific Northwest... Strong 12hr midlevel height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest ahead of a short-wave trough that will eject inland along the WA/OR Coast after 06z. Large-scale ascent/moistening, and steepening lapse rates should contribute to weak buoyancy; however, forecast soundings suggest most convection will remain too shallow to warrant any meaningful risk for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is deepening across the FL Peninsula early this evening. Primary corridor of low-level convergence has shifted offshore and the risk for lightning is now negligible with any weak lingering showers. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is deepening across the FL Peninsula early this evening. Primary corridor of low-level convergence has shifted offshore and the risk for lightning is now negligible with any weak lingering showers. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is deepening across the FL Peninsula early this evening. Primary corridor of low-level convergence has shifted offshore and the risk for lightning is now negligible with any weak lingering showers. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Westerly flow is deepening across the FL Peninsula early this evening. Primary corridor of low-level convergence has shifted offshore and the risk for lightning is now negligible with any weak lingering showers. ..Darrow.. 01/29/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 28 23:45:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 28 23:45:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather potential should remain limited through the extended period. Upper-level ridging should persist across the Rockies and central U.S. through the middle of the upcoming work week. This will maintain dry conditions across much of the central CONUS with unseasonably warm temperatures probable for many locations - especially along the High Plains. Some fuel curing is expected, but should be confined to mostly fine fuels in areas where a snow pack is not present. Regardless, a diffuse surface pressure regime through mid-week should limit gradient winds and limit fire weather potential. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show increasing precipitation chances by the end of the work week into next weekend for the Southwest and central/southern Plains as an upper trough approaches the region. This feature may support fire weather concerns across parts of southwest TX over the upcoming weekend, but confidence in this potential remains very limited. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of cool conditions, unreceptive fuels, and rain/snow chances will preclude fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather potential should remain limited through the extended period. Upper-level ridging should persist across the Rockies and central U.S. through the middle of the upcoming work week. This will maintain dry conditions across much of the central CONUS with unseasonably warm temperatures probable for many locations - especially along the High Plains. Some fuel curing is expected, but should be confined to mostly fine fuels in areas where a snow pack is not present. Regardless, a diffuse surface pressure regime through mid-week should limit gradient winds and limit fire weather potential. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show increasing precipitation chances by the end of the work week into next weekend for the Southwest and central/southern Plains as an upper trough approaches the region. This feature may support fire weather concerns across parts of southwest TX over the upcoming weekend, but confidence in this potential remains very limited. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of cool conditions, unreceptive fuels, and rain/snow chances will preclude fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather potential should remain limited through the extended period. Upper-level ridging should persist across the Rockies and central U.S. through the middle of the upcoming work week. This will maintain dry conditions across much of the central CONUS with unseasonably warm temperatures probable for many locations - especially along the High Plains. Some fuel curing is expected, but should be confined to mostly fine fuels in areas where a snow pack is not present. Regardless, a diffuse surface pressure regime through mid-week should limit gradient winds and limit fire weather potential. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show increasing precipitation chances by the end of the work week into next weekend for the Southwest and central/southern Plains as an upper trough approaches the region. This feature may support fire weather concerns across parts of southwest TX over the upcoming weekend, but confidence in this potential remains very limited. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of cool conditions, unreceptive fuels, and rain/snow chances will preclude fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather potential should remain limited through the extended period. Upper-level ridging should persist across the Rockies and central U.S. through the middle of the upcoming work week. This will maintain dry conditions across much of the central CONUS with unseasonably warm temperatures probable for many locations - especially along the High Plains. Some fuel curing is expected, but should be confined to mostly fine fuels in areas where a snow pack is not present. Regardless, a diffuse surface pressure regime through mid-week should limit gradient winds and limit fire weather potential. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show increasing precipitation chances by the end of the work week into next weekend for the Southwest and central/southern Plains as an upper trough approaches the region. This feature may support fire weather concerns across parts of southwest TX over the upcoming weekend, but confidence in this potential remains very limited. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of cool conditions, unreceptive fuels, and rain/snow chances will preclude fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CST Sun Jan 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z Fire weather potential should remain limited through the extended period. Upper-level ridging should persist across the Rockies and central U.S. through the middle of the upcoming work week. This will maintain dry conditions across much of the central CONUS with unseasonably warm temperatures probable for many locations - especially along the High Plains. Some fuel curing is expected, but should be confined to mostly fine fuels in areas where a snow pack is not present. Regardless, a diffuse surface pressure regime through mid-week should limit gradient winds and limit fire weather potential. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show increasing precipitation chances by the end of the work week into next weekend for the Southwest and central/southern Plains as an upper trough approaches the region. This feature may support fire weather concerns across parts of southwest TX over the upcoming weekend, but confidence in this potential remains very limited. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of cool conditions, unreceptive fuels, and rain/snow chances will preclude fire concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more