Severe Storms

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central U.S. at the start of the forecast period will shift east, with northwesterly upper-level flow remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS through D6/Wed. Periods of offshore flow remain possible in Southern California early next week, as surface high pressure builds into the lower Great Basin. However the lack of receptive fuels in this region should keep fire-weather concerns low. Thereafter, the upper-level flow pattern becomes quite uncertain, as one or more short-wave troughs may enter the Southwest. Nevertheless, cool temperatures should prevail in most areas of the CONUS along with mainly non-receptive fuels, and thus low potential for critical fire weather. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central U.S. at the start of the forecast period will shift east, with northwesterly upper-level flow remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS through D6/Wed. Periods of offshore flow remain possible in Southern California early next week, as surface high pressure builds into the lower Great Basin. However the lack of receptive fuels in this region should keep fire-weather concerns low. Thereafter, the upper-level flow pattern becomes quite uncertain, as one or more short-wave troughs may enter the Southwest. Nevertheless, cool temperatures should prevail in most areas of the CONUS along with mainly non-receptive fuels, and thus low potential for critical fire weather. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central U.S. at the start of the forecast period will shift east, with northwesterly upper-level flow remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS through D6/Wed. Periods of offshore flow remain possible in Southern California early next week, as surface high pressure builds into the lower Great Basin. However the lack of receptive fuels in this region should keep fire-weather concerns low. Thereafter, the upper-level flow pattern becomes quite uncertain, as one or more short-wave troughs may enter the Southwest. Nevertheless, cool temperatures should prevail in most areas of the CONUS along with mainly non-receptive fuels, and thus low potential for critical fire weather. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central U.S. at the start of the forecast period will shift east, with northwesterly upper-level flow remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS through D6/Wed. Periods of offshore flow remain possible in Southern California early next week, as surface high pressure builds into the lower Great Basin. However the lack of receptive fuels in this region should keep fire-weather concerns low. Thereafter, the upper-level flow pattern becomes quite uncertain, as one or more short-wave troughs may enter the Southwest. Nevertheless, cool temperatures should prevail in most areas of the CONUS along with mainly non-receptive fuels, and thus low potential for critical fire weather. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the central U.S. at the start of the forecast period will shift east, with northwesterly upper-level flow remaining over the eastern half of the CONUS through D6/Wed. Periods of offshore flow remain possible in Southern California early next week, as surface high pressure builds into the lower Great Basin. However the lack of receptive fuels in this region should keep fire-weather concerns low. Thereafter, the upper-level flow pattern becomes quite uncertain, as one or more short-wave troughs may enter the Southwest. Nevertheless, cool temperatures should prevail in most areas of the CONUS along with mainly non-receptive fuels, and thus low potential for critical fire weather. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the prior outlook. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Friday, cold post-frontal air across much of the CONUS will limit the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Friday, cold post-frontal air across much of the CONUS will limit the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Friday, cold post-frontal air across much of the CONUS will limit the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Friday, cold post-frontal air across much of the CONUS will limit the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1154 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... Similar to Day 1/Friday, cold post-frontal air across much of the CONUS will limit the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns will be minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more