Severe Storms

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will progress eastward from the Four Corners across the southern/central Plains on Saturday. Surface high pressure will persist across much of the central/eastern states, with limited low-level moisture return forecast across parts of coastal TX/LA and the FL Peninsula. Across these areas, poor mid-level lapse rates should hinder the development of much, if any, elevated instability. Corresponding thunderstorm chances are forecast to generally remain below 10% through the period. ..Gleason.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1023 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners and southeast Florida this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A midlevel low will move eastward over UT today, with a band of ascent overspreading the Four Corners during the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to weak buoyancy (surface-based CAPE of 100-200 J/kg) of sufficient depth for charge separation and a few lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon/evening across the Four Corners. Otherwise, a front along the southeast FL coast may drift inland a little this afternoon. This boundary will provide a focus for convection that could become deep enough for lightning production, which despite relatively warm midlevel temperatures noted in regional 12z soundings. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 11/24/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CST Thu Nov 23 2023/ ...Synopsis... An expansive continental polar air mass characterized by cold surface temperatures will remain in place across much of the CONUS, limiting the development/overlap of warm/dry/breezy conditions. As a result, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners region today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within a southern-stream split, an upper low will advance east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners area through tonight, with a prominent upper jet from the Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies. Cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will yield weak buoyancy across the Four Corners vicinity mainly this afternoon/evening, with the possibility that some of the convection will attain sufficient depth/temperatures for lightning discharge. ..Guyer.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners region today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within a southern-stream split, an upper low will advance east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners area through tonight, with a prominent upper jet from the Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies. Cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will yield weak buoyancy across the Four Corners vicinity mainly this afternoon/evening, with the possibility that some of the convection will attain sufficient depth/temperatures for lightning discharge. ..Guyer.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners region today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within a southern-stream split, an upper low will advance east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners area through tonight, with a prominent upper jet from the Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies. Cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will yield weak buoyancy across the Four Corners vicinity mainly this afternoon/evening, with the possibility that some of the convection will attain sufficient depth/temperatures for lightning discharge. ..Guyer.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners region today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within a southern-stream split, an upper low will advance east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners area through tonight, with a prominent upper jet from the Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies. Cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will yield weak buoyancy across the Four Corners vicinity mainly this afternoon/evening, with the possibility that some of the convection will attain sufficient depth/temperatures for lightning discharge. ..Guyer.. 11/24/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible across the Four Corners region today. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Within a southern-stream split, an upper low will advance east-southeastward from the Great Basin toward the Four Corners area through tonight, with a prominent upper jet from the Southwest Deserts to the southern Rockies. Cooling mid-level temperatures and diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates will yield weak buoyancy across the Four Corners vicinity mainly this afternoon/evening, with the possibility that some of the convection will attain sufficient depth/temperatures for lightning discharge. ..Guyer.. 11/24/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement through most of the period, depicting a stable pattern with mean upper troughing over the central and eastern states, resulting in dry offshore flow. This pattern will continue through at least Thursday/D7 until a possible low-latitude shortwave trough moves from the Southwest into the Plains. Beginning early on Friday/D8, moisture return may be sufficient to produce a plume of instability mainly over the eastern half of TX. Even so, values will likely be marginal for any severe threat. As such, potential for severe storms remains low through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement through most of the period, depicting a stable pattern with mean upper troughing over the central and eastern states, resulting in dry offshore flow. This pattern will continue through at least Thursday/D7 until a possible low-latitude shortwave trough moves from the Southwest into the Plains. Beginning early on Friday/D8, moisture return may be sufficient to produce a plume of instability mainly over the eastern half of TX. Even so, values will likely be marginal for any severe threat. As such, potential for severe storms remains low through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2023 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models are in good agreement through most of the period, depicting a stable pattern with mean upper troughing over the central and eastern states, resulting in dry offshore flow. This pattern will continue through at least Thursday/D7 until a possible low-latitude shortwave trough moves from the Southwest into the Plains. Beginning early on Friday/D8, moisture return may be sufficient to produce a plume of instability mainly over the eastern half of TX. Even so, values will likely be marginal for any severe threat. As such, potential for severe storms remains low through the period. Read more