Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible through tonight over parts of the Carolinas. A few damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur late into North Carolina. ...Central SC across central and north-central NC... Sporadic strong storms are ongoing near a warm front extending from the GA/SC border into south-central NC. While widespread rain is occurring north of the boundary within a cooler air mass, mid 60s F dewpoints exist to the south. As the left-exit region of the upper jet affects the region later tonight, there is some potential for the northward advection of unstable air, potentially resulting in isolated supercells ahead of the deepening surface low. The GSO sounding at 00Z is clearly stable, exhibiting an isothermal layer through 850 mb. However, strengthening shear profiles along with cooling aloft may result in destabilization tonight as the surface low deepens and moves northeastward along the boundary. Though a small area of potential, any cells interacting with the 60s F dewpoints in a recovering air mass scenario could yield a tornado. For short-term details, refer to MD #0096. ..Jewell.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible through tonight over parts of the Carolinas. A few damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur late into North Carolina. ...Central SC across central and north-central NC... Sporadic strong storms are ongoing near a warm front extending from the GA/SC border into south-central NC. While widespread rain is occurring north of the boundary within a cooler air mass, mid 60s F dewpoints exist to the south. As the left-exit region of the upper jet affects the region later tonight, there is some potential for the northward advection of unstable air, potentially resulting in isolated supercells ahead of the deepening surface low. The GSO sounding at 00Z is clearly stable, exhibiting an isothermal layer through 850 mb. However, strengthening shear profiles along with cooling aloft may result in destabilization tonight as the surface low deepens and moves northeastward along the boundary. Though a small area of potential, any cells interacting with the 60s F dewpoints in a recovering air mass scenario could yield a tornado. For short-term details, refer to MD #0096. ..Jewell.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible through tonight over parts of the Carolinas. A few damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur late into North Carolina. ...Central SC across central and north-central NC... Sporadic strong storms are ongoing near a warm front extending from the GA/SC border into south-central NC. While widespread rain is occurring north of the boundary within a cooler air mass, mid 60s F dewpoints exist to the south. As the left-exit region of the upper jet affects the region later tonight, there is some potential for the northward advection of unstable air, potentially resulting in isolated supercells ahead of the deepening surface low. The GSO sounding at 00Z is clearly stable, exhibiting an isothermal layer through 850 mb. However, strengthening shear profiles along with cooling aloft may result in destabilization tonight as the surface low deepens and moves northeastward along the boundary. Though a small area of potential, any cells interacting with the 60s F dewpoints in a recovering air mass scenario could yield a tornado. For short-term details, refer to MD #0096. ..Jewell.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible through tonight over parts of the Carolinas. A few damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur late into North Carolina. ...Central SC across central and north-central NC... Sporadic strong storms are ongoing near a warm front extending from the GA/SC border into south-central NC. While widespread rain is occurring north of the boundary within a cooler air mass, mid 60s F dewpoints exist to the south. As the left-exit region of the upper jet affects the region later tonight, there is some potential for the northward advection of unstable air, potentially resulting in isolated supercells ahead of the deepening surface low. The GSO sounding at 00Z is clearly stable, exhibiting an isothermal layer through 850 mb. However, strengthening shear profiles along with cooling aloft may result in destabilization tonight as the surface low deepens and moves northeastward along the boundary. Though a small area of potential, any cells interacting with the 60s F dewpoints in a recovering air mass scenario could yield a tornado. For short-term details, refer to MD #0096. ..Jewell.. 01/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible through tonight over parts of the Carolinas. A few damaging gust or a brief tornado may occur late into North Carolina. ...Central SC across central and north-central NC... Sporadic strong storms are ongoing near a warm front extending from the GA/SC border into south-central NC. While widespread rain is occurring north of the boundary within a cooler air mass, mid 60s F dewpoints exist to the south. As the left-exit region of the upper jet affects the region later tonight, there is some potential for the northward advection of unstable air, potentially resulting in isolated supercells ahead of the deepening surface low. The GSO sounding at 00Z is clearly stable, exhibiting an isothermal layer through 850 mb. However, strengthening shear profiles along with cooling aloft may result in destabilization tonight as the surface low deepens and moves northeastward along the boundary. Though a small area of potential, any cells interacting with the 60s F dewpoints in a recovering air mass scenario could yield a tornado. For short-term details, refer to MD #0096. ..Jewell.. 01/28/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Jan 27 23:27:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jan 27 23:27:02 UTC 2024.

MD 0095 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 12... FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0095 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle and far southwest Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 12... Valid 272152Z - 272315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 12 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe gusts remain possible across portions of Tornado Watch 12 for the next few hours. DISCUSSION...KTLH radar data shows a loosely organized convective line tracking eastward across the eastern portion of the FL Panhandle at around 45 kt this afternoon. Peak gusts associated with this line of storms have been in the 40-50 mph range, primarily focused over coastal areas where surface-based buoyancy has been greatest (albeit weak). 40-50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per KTLH VWP data) oriented oblique to the leading-edge gust front should continue favoring an organized linear structure with embedded stronger/deeper cores. Despite poor deep-layer lapse rates and weak inland buoyancy, this favorable deep-layer shear and established cold pool should support a continued risk of strong to locally damaging gusts and perhaps a brief/weak tornado as the line continues eastward over the next few hours. ..Weinman.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 29928460 30398469 30778469 30918461 31018431 31008391 30898360 30528349 29948362 29728382 29738430 29928460 Read more

MD 0094 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA INTO SOUTHEASTERN TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT NORTHWESTERN GEORGIAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Alabama into southeastern Tennessee and adjacent northwestern Georgian Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 272044Z - 272315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms overspreading the region late this afternoon may become capable of posing at least some risk for producing a tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Persistent convective development, spreading across the southern Georgia/Alabama state border vicinity, western Florida Panhandle and north central into northeastern Gulf of Mexico, has impeded low-level moisture return to the warm sector of a developing surface cyclone, farther inland across the central Gulf States into Tennessee Valley. However, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that weak boundary-layer destabilization is ongoing, ahead of the eastward advancing cold front which trails the modest, but deepening, surface low center as it migrates north-northeastward through middle Tennessee. This is being aided by insolation beneath the low/mid-level dry slot, and the onset of mid-level cooling, which are contributing to sufficient conditional and convective instability to support a line of strengthening thunderstorm development near/just ahead of the front. While this convection is generally low-topped in nature, strong shear through the convective layer may contribute to further organization and the evolution of embedded supercell structures. The evolution of more discrete cells just ahead of this activity may not be out of the question, as it advances toward the Cumberland Plateau/southern Appalachians vicinity through early evening. Across parts of northeastern Alabama into adjacent portions of southeastern Tennessee and northwestern Georgia, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings have indicated that weak boundary-layer destabilization through 21-00Z may coincide with low-level hodographs characterized by sizable clockwise curvature, before trending linear near the approaching cold front. While the overall environment, at best, may be marginal, there appears some window of opportunity for convection to pose a risk for producing a tornado or two through early evening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN... LAT...LON 34108679 34748678 35158643 35418518 34248546 33568652 34108679 Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE AAF TO 25 WSW TLH TO 25 E DHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095 ..WEINMAN..01/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC039-065-073-129-272240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GADSDEN JEFFERSON LEON WAKULLA GAC007-087-131-201-205-253-275-272240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER DECATUR GRADY MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS GMZ730-755-272240- CW Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE AAF TO 25 WSW TLH TO 25 E DHN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0095 ..WEINMAN..01/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC039-065-073-129-272240- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GADSDEN JEFFERSON LEON WAKULLA GAC007-087-131-201-205-253-275-272240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER DECATUR GRADY MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS GMZ730-755-272240- CW Read more

WW 12 TORNADO FL GA CW 271905Z - 280000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 12 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM EST Sat Jan 27 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 700 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms extends from the Florida Panhandle southward into the Gulf. These storms will track eastward across the watch area this afternoon, posing a risk of locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 5 miles west southwest of Panama City FL to 25 miles east northeast of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z Fire weather potential appears limited through the extended period. An upper-level ridge currently in place across the western CONUS is forecast to slowly migrate east through mid-week. This will establish a mean northwesterly flow regime across the central and eastern U.S., which typically favors relatively dry and quiescent conditions across the Plains with occasional rain/snow chances across the Pacific Northwest/West Coast and east of the MS River Valley. Some drying is expected along the High Plains amid anomalously warm temperatures, but weak winds should limit fire weather concerns. Precipitation chances are expected to increase across the Southwest and southern/central Plains heading into next weekend as a more robust upper wave approaches the region. Some solutions hint at fire weather concerns across the greater southwest TX region late in the period, but notable spread in deterministic guidance and low ensemble probabilities limit confidence in this potential. ..Moore.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0093 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0093 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CST Sat Jan 27 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 271838Z - 272045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A line of organized storms will impact portions of the Florida Panhandle in the next two hours. Strong/severe gusts are the main concern, though a tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KEVX depicts a well-organized line of storms south of Pensacola FL tracking east-northeastward at around 45 kt. This convection is feeding off of the northern periphery of a high theta-e air mass over the north-central Gulf of Mexico. Current thinking is that 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (sampled by KEVX VWP) oriented perpendicular to the leading-edge gust front should support the maintenance of these storms. Ahead of the line, filtered diurnal heating/destabilization of a moistening boundary layer (upper 60s dewpoints) is ongoing over portions of the central FL Panhandle. Given this downstream destabilization and the increasing organization of the convective line (including northern book-end vortex), strong to severe gusts are possible over portions of the central Florida Panhandle in the next two hours. Additionally, 40 kt of 0-1 km shear (per KEVX VWP) could support an isolated embedded tornado threat. Overall, confidence in the line of storms maintaining current intensity is not particularly high, though convective trends are being monitored closely. ..Weinman/Hart.. 01/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 30258606 30438610 30678586 30798551 30768503 30668449 30458421 30008416 29678451 29548491 29628540 29898573 30258606 Read more

WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0093 ..WEINMAN..01/27/24 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-065-073-077-129-133-272140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WASHINGTON GAC007-087-131-201-205-253-275-272140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER DECATUR GRADY MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE THOMAS GMZ730-750-752-755-272140- CW Read more