Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Wednesday/D4, the large upper trough over the East will begin to lift out, with height rises over much of the region. The upper low will remain over Hudson Bay, with features rotating around the west side of the low and into the northern Plains. Meanwhile, a low-latitude shortwave trough is forecast to affect AZ and NM overnight and into Thursday/D5. This southern wave will proceed into the southern Plains on Thursday/D5, with good model agreement. Height falls and lift will occur over much of TX, OK and KS, and toward the middle MS Valley by the end of the day. Moisture will return north across eastern TX and toward the ArkLaTex with 60s F dewpoints, and 50s as far north as central MO. Low pressure will develop from northern TX into MO through Friday/D6 morning, aided by a broad fetch of theta-e advection around 850 mb. Given the antecedent cool/dry air mass ahead of the moisture return, widespread clouds are likely, with poor low-level lapse rates. A few strong storms may occur during the day over eastern TX, with increasingly elevated instability farther north. General height rises are then forecast over much of the South Friday/D6 through Sunday/D8 as another possible shortwave trough moves across the Rockies. This pattern will favor showers and thunderstorms over much of the Southeast, and the next trough evolution will need to be monitored into next weekend as moisture will be in place along the Gulf Coast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify and shift eastward over the western CONUS, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This will maintain an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern California, supporting additional boundary-layer drying compared to Day 1/Sunday. As a result, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH will favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, with a focus over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. With that said, the wind/RH overlap still appears too marginal for Elevated highlights given recent rainfall across the area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify and shift eastward over the western CONUS, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This will maintain an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern California, supporting additional boundary-layer drying compared to Day 1/Sunday. As a result, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH will favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, with a focus over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. With that said, the wind/RH overlap still appears too marginal for Elevated highlights given recent rainfall across the area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify and shift eastward over the western CONUS, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This will maintain an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern California, supporting additional boundary-layer drying compared to Day 1/Sunday. As a result, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH will favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, with a focus over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. With that said, the wind/RH overlap still appears too marginal for Elevated highlights given recent rainfall across the area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level ridge will amplify and shift eastward over the western CONUS, reinforcing surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. This will maintain an enhanced offshore pressure gradient across southern California, supporting additional boundary-layer drying compared to Day 1/Sunday. As a result, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and low RH will favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions, with a focus over parts of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties. With that said, the wind/RH overlap still appears too marginal for Elevated highlights given recent rainfall across the area. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will strengthen across southern California. Over portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and modest RH reductions could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and the modest RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will strengthen across southern California. Over portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and modest RH reductions could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and the modest RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will strengthen across southern California. Over portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and modest RH reductions could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and the modest RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will strengthen across southern California. Over portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and modest RH reductions could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and the modest RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest, with a corresponding strengthening of surface high pressure over the Great Basin/Intermountain West. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will strengthen across southern California. Over portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, breezy/gusty northeasterly surface winds and modest RH reductions could favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, recent rainfall and the modest RH reductions should generally limit the fire-weather threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS, fire-weather concerns are minimal owing to cool and/or moist surface conditions. ..Weinman.. 11/26/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist across the CONUS on Tuesday with a large upper trough over the East and a mean ridge over the Rockies. Dry conditions will be maintained over land due to strong offshore winds across the southeastern states, and an extensive area of high pressure. While a weak upper low is forecast to affect northern CA and western OR late Tuesday night, little to no instability is forecast to support nocturnal thunderstorms. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist across the CONUS on Tuesday with a large upper trough over the East and a mean ridge over the Rockies. Dry conditions will be maintained over land due to strong offshore winds across the southeastern states, and an extensive area of high pressure. While a weak upper low is forecast to affect northern CA and western OR late Tuesday night, little to no instability is forecast to support nocturnal thunderstorms. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist across the CONUS on Tuesday with a large upper trough over the East and a mean ridge over the Rockies. Dry conditions will be maintained over land due to strong offshore winds across the southeastern states, and an extensive area of high pressure. While a weak upper low is forecast to affect northern CA and western OR late Tuesday night, little to no instability is forecast to support nocturnal thunderstorms. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist across the CONUS on Tuesday with a large upper trough over the East and a mean ridge over the Rockies. Dry conditions will be maintained over land due to strong offshore winds across the southeastern states, and an extensive area of high pressure. While a weak upper low is forecast to affect northern CA and western OR late Tuesday night, little to no instability is forecast to support nocturnal thunderstorms. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Nov 26 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A cool and stable pattern will persist across the CONUS on Tuesday with a large upper trough over the East and a mean ridge over the Rockies. Dry conditions will be maintained over land due to strong offshore winds across the southeastern states, and an extensive area of high pressure. While a weak upper low is forecast to affect northern CA and western OR late Tuesday night, little to no instability is forecast to support nocturnal thunderstorms. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated weak storm or two cannot be ruled out over far southern Florida on Monday. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the eastern CONUS on Monday, with a ridge over the West. This will maintain a stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential, with limited instability over land areas. The lone area of any potential will be over far southern FL, ahead of the cold front and around peak heating. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for a few convective showers as the cold front undercuts the moist air mass. Any threat will be limited as dry air pushes in from the north. Elsewhere, a strong area of high pressure centered over the Great Basin and Plains will preclude any thunderstorm chances with offshore flow increasing over the Gulf Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated weak storm or two cannot be ruled out over far southern Florida on Monday. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the eastern CONUS on Monday, with a ridge over the West. This will maintain a stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential, with limited instability over land areas. The lone area of any potential will be over far southern FL, ahead of the cold front and around peak heating. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for a few convective showers as the cold front undercuts the moist air mass. Any threat will be limited as dry air pushes in from the north. Elsewhere, a strong area of high pressure centered over the Great Basin and Plains will preclude any thunderstorm chances with offshore flow increasing over the Gulf Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated weak storm or two cannot be ruled out over far southern Florida on Monday. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the eastern CONUS on Monday, with a ridge over the West. This will maintain a stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential, with limited instability over land areas. The lone area of any potential will be over far southern FL, ahead of the cold front and around peak heating. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for a few convective showers as the cold front undercuts the moist air mass. Any threat will be limited as dry air pushes in from the north. Elsewhere, a strong area of high pressure centered over the Great Basin and Plains will preclude any thunderstorm chances with offshore flow increasing over the Gulf Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated weak storm or two cannot be ruled out over far southern Florida on Monday. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the eastern CONUS on Monday, with a ridge over the West. This will maintain a stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential, with limited instability over land areas. The lone area of any potential will be over far southern FL, ahead of the cold front and around peak heating. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for a few convective showers as the cold front undercuts the moist air mass. Any threat will be limited as dry air pushes in from the north. Elsewhere, a strong area of high pressure centered over the Great Basin and Plains will preclude any thunderstorm chances with offshore flow increasing over the Gulf Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Sat Nov 25 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An isolated weak storm or two cannot be ruled out over far southern Florida on Monday. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will amplify over the eastern CONUS on Monday, with a ridge over the West. This will maintain a stable pattern in terms of thunderstorm potential, with limited instability over land areas. The lone area of any potential will be over far southern FL, ahead of the cold front and around peak heating. Forecast soundings show sufficient instability for a few convective showers as the cold front undercuts the moist air mass. Any threat will be limited as dry air pushes in from the north. Elsewhere, a strong area of high pressure centered over the Great Basin and Plains will preclude any thunderstorm chances with offshore flow increasing over the Gulf Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/26/2023 Read more