Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday, as well as overnight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move quickly from the OH Valley into the Northeast, while a secondary, low-amplitude wave moves from the southern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley. South of the track of these trough, moderate southwest flow aloft will persist, from TX into the lower MS and TN Valley, with neutral height tendencies. At the surface, low pressure will weaken as it moves from MO into IN during the day, with an boundary extending southwestward across TN/MS/LA and into the western Gulf of Mexico. The position of this weak boundary may be correlated with ongoing convection early Friday morning, roughly from LA into MS, with areas of outflow. Additional storms are likely to develop ahead of the front though, in a moistening air mass over AL as a warm front gradually lifts ahead of the aforementioned boundary to the west. Overall, large-scale ascent will be weak, but persistent southwesterly flow around 850 mb and the lifting warm front will aid destabilization via moisture advection. Scattered storms both with the early-day activity along the western front, and with isolated new development across the warm sector over southern MS and AL may yield damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado prior to winds veering with the passage of the initial wave. Overnight, as the second shortwave trough approaches, redevelopment is expected from LA into MS and AL. A southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen, which will maintain a moist air mass with 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Forecast soundings toward 12Z Saturday depict sufficient instability to support a transient supercell or two, with brief tornado risk. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, some severe, are possible over parts of the central Gulf Coast states on Friday, as well as overnight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Friday, a shortwave trough will move quickly from the OH Valley into the Northeast, while a secondary, low-amplitude wave moves from the southern High Plains toward the mid MS Valley. South of the track of these trough, moderate southwest flow aloft will persist, from TX into the lower MS and TN Valley, with neutral height tendencies. At the surface, low pressure will weaken as it moves from MO into IN during the day, with an boundary extending southwestward across TN/MS/LA and into the western Gulf of Mexico. The position of this weak boundary may be correlated with ongoing convection early Friday morning, roughly from LA into MS, with areas of outflow. Additional storms are likely to develop ahead of the front though, in a moistening air mass over AL as a warm front gradually lifts ahead of the aforementioned boundary to the west. Overall, large-scale ascent will be weak, but persistent southwesterly flow around 850 mb and the lifting warm front will aid destabilization via moisture advection. Scattered storms both with the early-day activity along the western front, and with isolated new development across the warm sector over southern MS and AL may yield damaging gusts or perhaps a brief tornado prior to winds veering with the passage of the initial wave. Overnight, as the second shortwave trough approaches, redevelopment is expected from LA into MS and AL. A southwesterly low-level jet will strengthen, which will maintain a moist air mass with 200 m2/s2 effective SRH. Forecast soundings toward 12Z Saturday depict sufficient instability to support a transient supercell or two, with brief tornado risk. ..Jewell.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms with some severe, will be possible today over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes are expected, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Further north, into parts of east Texas and southern Oklahoma, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico today. An associated 70 to 85 knot mid-level jet will move eastward across northern Mexico and into west Texas by this afternoon. Ahead of the mid-level jet, moisture advection will occur across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 65 to 70 F range from the middle Texas Coast northward into the area west of the Houston Metro. As surface heating takes place along and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range. As the system approaches, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will be maintained across east Texas. Lift associated with the low-level jet will aid convective development during the day over much of east Texas extending northward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat will be possible across much of this weakly unstable airmass throughout the day. Further south from the middle Texas Coast into Southeast Texas, the environment will become favorable for supercells by around midday. As surface dewpoints and low-level shear increase, Significant Tornado Parameter is forecast to peak in the 4 to 5 range by early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings just west of Houston at 21Z have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity reaching about 325 m2/s2. This will likely support a tornado threat associated with supercells that form and move into the Houston area this afternoon. A small cluster of tornadoes is expected across southeast Texas. Although damaging wind gusts will also be possible, this threat will be associated with supercell downdrafts and should remain isolated. There could also be a localized large hail threat with supercells. The potential for severe storms could continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms with some severe, will be possible today over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes are expected, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Further north, into parts of east Texas and southern Oklahoma, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico today. An associated 70 to 85 knot mid-level jet will move eastward across northern Mexico and into west Texas by this afternoon. Ahead of the mid-level jet, moisture advection will occur across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 65 to 70 F range from the middle Texas Coast northward into the area west of the Houston Metro. As surface heating takes place along and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range. As the system approaches, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will be maintained across east Texas. Lift associated with the low-level jet will aid convective development during the day over much of east Texas extending northward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat will be possible across much of this weakly unstable airmass throughout the day. Further south from the middle Texas Coast into Southeast Texas, the environment will become favorable for supercells by around midday. As surface dewpoints and low-level shear increase, Significant Tornado Parameter is forecast to peak in the 4 to 5 range by early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings just west of Houston at 21Z have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity reaching about 325 m2/s2. This will likely support a tornado threat associated with supercells that form and move into the Houston area this afternoon. A small cluster of tornadoes is expected across southeast Texas. Although damaging wind gusts will also be possible, this threat will be associated with supercell downdrafts and should remain isolated. There could also be a localized large hail threat with supercells. The potential for severe storms could continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms with some severe, will be possible today over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes are expected, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Further north, into parts of east Texas and southern Oklahoma, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico today. An associated 70 to 85 knot mid-level jet will move eastward across northern Mexico and into west Texas by this afternoon. Ahead of the mid-level jet, moisture advection will occur across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 65 to 70 F range from the middle Texas Coast northward into the area west of the Houston Metro. As surface heating takes place along and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range. As the system approaches, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will be maintained across east Texas. Lift associated with the low-level jet will aid convective development during the day over much of east Texas extending northward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat will be possible across much of this weakly unstable airmass throughout the day. Further south from the middle Texas Coast into Southeast Texas, the environment will become favorable for supercells by around midday. As surface dewpoints and low-level shear increase, Significant Tornado Parameter is forecast to peak in the 4 to 5 range by early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings just west of Houston at 21Z have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity reaching about 325 m2/s2. This will likely support a tornado threat associated with supercells that form and move into the Houston area this afternoon. A small cluster of tornadoes is expected across southeast Texas. Although damaging wind gusts will also be possible, this threat will be associated with supercell downdrafts and should remain isolated. There could also be a localized large hail threat with supercells. The potential for severe storms could continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms with some severe, will be possible today over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes are expected, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Further north, into parts of east Texas and southern Oklahoma, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico today. An associated 70 to 85 knot mid-level jet will move eastward across northern Mexico and into west Texas by this afternoon. Ahead of the mid-level jet, moisture advection will occur across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 65 to 70 F range from the middle Texas Coast northward into the area west of the Houston Metro. As surface heating takes place along and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range. As the system approaches, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will be maintained across east Texas. Lift associated with the low-level jet will aid convective development during the day over much of east Texas extending northward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat will be possible across much of this weakly unstable airmass throughout the day. Further south from the middle Texas Coast into Southeast Texas, the environment will become favorable for supercells by around midday. As surface dewpoints and low-level shear increase, Significant Tornado Parameter is forecast to peak in the 4 to 5 range by early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings just west of Houston at 21Z have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity reaching about 325 m2/s2. This will likely support a tornado threat associated with supercells that form and move into the Houston area this afternoon. A small cluster of tornadoes is expected across southeast Texas. Although damaging wind gusts will also be possible, this threat will be associated with supercell downdrafts and should remain isolated. There could also be a localized large hail threat with supercells. The potential for severe storms could continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms with some severe, will be possible today over southeast Texas. A few tornadoes are expected, along with hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. Further north, into parts of east Texas and southern Oklahoma, hail along with a few strong wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... A mid-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico today. An associated 70 to 85 knot mid-level jet will move eastward across northern Mexico and into west Texas by this afternoon. Ahead of the mid-level jet, moisture advection will occur across the Texas Coastal Plain. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the 65 to 70 F range from the middle Texas Coast northward into the area west of the Houston Metro. As surface heating takes place along and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1200 to 1500 J/kg range. As the system approaches, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will be maintained across east Texas. Lift associated with the low-level jet will aid convective development during the day over much of east Texas extending northward into the Ark-La-Tex. A marginal severe threat will be possible across much of this weakly unstable airmass throughout the day. Further south from the middle Texas Coast into Southeast Texas, the environment will become favorable for supercells by around midday. As surface dewpoints and low-level shear increase, Significant Tornado Parameter is forecast to peak in the 4 to 5 range by early to mid afternoon. RAP forecast soundings just west of Houston at 21Z have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity reaching about 325 m2/s2. This will likely support a tornado threat associated with supercells that form and move into the Houston area this afternoon. A small cluster of tornadoes is expected across southeast Texas. Although damaging wind gusts will also be possible, this threat will be associated with supercell downdrafts and should remain isolated. There could also be a localized large hail threat with supercells. The potential for severe storms could continue into the evening as a convective cluster moves from southeast Texas into southwest Louisiana. ..Broyles/Weinman.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest, and in the southern Plains. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest this evening. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will increase in a relatively steep lapse rate environment. In response, thunderstorm development will be possible this evening from parts of north-central Arizona into western and central New Mexico. Further to the east, moisture advection will take place as the trough approaches in parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In response, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop after midnight. However, largely due to weak instability, a severe threat is not expected across the continental United States through daybreak on Thursday. ..Broyles.. 11/30/2023 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible tonight across parts of the Desert Southwest, and in the southern Plains. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the Desert Southwest this evening. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent will increase in a relatively steep lapse rate environment. In response, thunderstorm development will be possible this evening from parts of north-central Arizona into western and central New Mexico. Further to the east, moisture advection will take place as the trough approaches in parts of central and eastern Texas tonight. In response, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will likely develop after midnight. However, largely due to weak instability, a severe threat is not expected across the continental United States through daybreak on Thursday. ..Broyles.. 11/30/2023 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Nov 29 22:11:02 UTC 2023.

No watches are valid as of Wed Nov 29 22:11:02 UTC 2023.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Multiple mid-level troughs will traverse the central and eastern CONUS, accompanied by surface lee troughs/cyclones through at least Days 5-6/Sunday-Monday, before upper ridging builds into the western and central U.S. by mid next week. Before the upper ridging sets in, dry downslope flow is likely each day (Friday-Monday) across the southern High Plains. Nonetheless, the marginally receptive fuels and lack of agreement between medium-range guidance members regarding overlapping Elevated-equivalent conditions precludes Critical probabilities this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. See discussion below for more forecast info. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed with the 20z update. See discussion below for more forecast info. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. Read more