Severe Storms

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0606 PM CST Tue Jan 30 2024 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms forecast. ..Darrow.. 01/31/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 30 02:17:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 30 02:17:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough will approach the WA Coast around 06z tonight. While large-scale ascent/moistening will likely contribute to weak buoyancy, especially as midlevel lapse rates steepen, any convection that develops ahead of this feature should remain too shallow to generate lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0627 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Strong short-wave trough will approach the WA Coast around 06z tonight. While large-scale ascent/moistening will likely contribute to weak buoyancy, especially as midlevel lapse rates steepen, any convection that develops ahead of this feature should remain too shallow to generate lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/30/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Jan 29 23:36:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Jan 29 23:36:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather potential through the work week remains limited, though regional concerns may emerge across southwest Texas by next weekend. Latest long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the maintenance of an upper ridge over the Intermountain West and Plains through the middle of the work week. This pattern will favor dry conditions across the central U.S. while southwesterly flow along the West Coast and a shortwave trough across the OH River Valley/Southeast introduce precipitation chances elsewhere. A persistent west/northwest flow regime is expected to promote unseasonably warm temperatures across the Plains that may result in some fuel drying through the week, though winds are forecast to remain sufficiently light to preclude fire concerns. Heading into the upcoming weekend, long-range guidance depicts a subtropical jet extension nosing into northern Mexico/southern TX. This should support lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains with breezy westerly winds across southern NM into southwest TX. Deterministic solutions have come into better agreement regarding this scenario, and the probability for at least elevated (to possibly critical) fire weather conditions across southwest TX has increased in latest ensemble guidance. Fuels across this region are currently not receptive, but may trend drier prior to this weekend. Forecast and fuel trends will be monitored in subsequent outlooks for an increasing fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather potential through the work week remains limited, though regional concerns may emerge across southwest Texas by next weekend. Latest long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the maintenance of an upper ridge over the Intermountain West and Plains through the middle of the work week. This pattern will favor dry conditions across the central U.S. while southwesterly flow along the West Coast and a shortwave trough across the OH River Valley/Southeast introduce precipitation chances elsewhere. A persistent west/northwest flow regime is expected to promote unseasonably warm temperatures across the Plains that may result in some fuel drying through the week, though winds are forecast to remain sufficiently light to preclude fire concerns. Heading into the upcoming weekend, long-range guidance depicts a subtropical jet extension nosing into northern Mexico/southern TX. This should support lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains with breezy westerly winds across southern NM into southwest TX. Deterministic solutions have come into better agreement regarding this scenario, and the probability for at least elevated (to possibly critical) fire weather conditions across southwest TX has increased in latest ensemble guidance. Fuels across this region are currently not receptive, but may trend drier prior to this weekend. Forecast and fuel trends will be monitored in subsequent outlooks for an increasing fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather potential through the work week remains limited, though regional concerns may emerge across southwest Texas by next weekend. Latest long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the maintenance of an upper ridge over the Intermountain West and Plains through the middle of the work week. This pattern will favor dry conditions across the central U.S. while southwesterly flow along the West Coast and a shortwave trough across the OH River Valley/Southeast introduce precipitation chances elsewhere. A persistent west/northwest flow regime is expected to promote unseasonably warm temperatures across the Plains that may result in some fuel drying through the week, though winds are forecast to remain sufficiently light to preclude fire concerns. Heading into the upcoming weekend, long-range guidance depicts a subtropical jet extension nosing into northern Mexico/southern TX. This should support lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains with breezy westerly winds across southern NM into southwest TX. Deterministic solutions have come into better agreement regarding this scenario, and the probability for at least elevated (to possibly critical) fire weather conditions across southwest TX has increased in latest ensemble guidance. Fuels across this region are currently not receptive, but may trend drier prior to this weekend. Forecast and fuel trends will be monitored in subsequent outlooks for an increasing fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather potential through the work week remains limited, though regional concerns may emerge across southwest Texas by next weekend. Latest long-range ensemble guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the maintenance of an upper ridge over the Intermountain West and Plains through the middle of the work week. This pattern will favor dry conditions across the central U.S. while southwesterly flow along the West Coast and a shortwave trough across the OH River Valley/Southeast introduce precipitation chances elsewhere. A persistent west/northwest flow regime is expected to promote unseasonably warm temperatures across the Plains that may result in some fuel drying through the week, though winds are forecast to remain sufficiently light to preclude fire concerns. Heading into the upcoming weekend, long-range guidance depicts a subtropical jet extension nosing into northern Mexico/southern TX. This should support lee troughing/cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains with breezy westerly winds across southern NM into southwest TX. Deterministic solutions have come into better agreement regarding this scenario, and the probability for at least elevated (to possibly critical) fire weather conditions across southwest TX has increased in latest ensemble guidance. Fuels across this region are currently not receptive, but may trend drier prior to this weekend. Forecast and fuel trends will be monitored in subsequent outlooks for an increasing fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous outlook. ..Mosier.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous outlook. ..Mosier.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous outlook. ..Mosier.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous outlook. ..Mosier.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous outlook. ..Mosier.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes needed to the previous outlook. ..Mosier.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0957 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... A mid/upper-level trough will continue eastward from the Eastern Seaboard into the western Atlantic Ocean today, while an amplified upper ridge persists over the West. On the backside of the eastern CONUS trough, large-scale subsidence amid a cold/dry post-frontal air mass will limit thunderstorm potential east of the Rockies. Similarly, low theta-e air accompanying an expansive continental polar surface high over the Intermountain West will preclude thunderstorms west of the Rockies. While a robust shortwave trough with cold temperatures aloft will track southeastward across the Midwest tonight, limited elevated instability ahead of a related cold front and expected band of low-topped convection should also limit lightning potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again, winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again, winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 01/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper-level ridging will persist in the Rockies and across the Plains on Tuesday. A weak cold front will move into the southern High Plains early in the period. Similar to Monday, dry conditions are possible in parts of the Southwest/southern High Plains. Again, winds will be light and fuel receptiveness is still likely to be poor. Fire weather concerns remain minimal across the CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more