Severe Storms

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Dry conditions will also be present across portions of the central and southern Appalachians. Here, a severe to exceptional drought is in place, with appreciable rainfall accumulations lacking in the past week. The absence of a stronger sustained surface wind field will limit robust wildfire spread (hence no highlights). However, localized wildfire-spread concerns could materialize by afternoon peak heating if RH can drop below 30 percent and overlap with any wind gusts. ..Squitieri.. 11/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0149 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough will track eastward across the Desert Southwest. Preceding this feature, a low-amplitude impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will cross the central Rockies, promoting lee troughing and breezy/gusty southerly return flow over the central High Plains. Increasing mid/high-level clouds accompanying the impulse may stunt diurnal heating to an extent, though modest downslope flow should offset this and yield around 15-20 percent RH. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible here, a limited overlap of the breezy winds and low RH, combined with marginal fuels, should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Southern Rockies to TX tonight... As part of a split flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough now approaching southern CA will continue eastward to southern NM/far west TX by early Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible this evening into tonight across the higher terrain of northern/eastern AZ into western NM as sufficient midlevel cooling/moistening contributes to weak buoyancy within the left exit region of the mid-upper jet. Overnight, a modifying Gulf of Mexico air mass will return northward to near the lower/middle TX coast at the surface, and aloft into north/northeast TX. There will be sufficient destabilization aloft to support elevated thunderstorms in a strengthening warm advection regime, mainly 08-12z. Any severe threat will likely be delayed until early in the day 2 forecast period. ..Thompson/Moore.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West... A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas. Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast... Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a 30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West... A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas. Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast... Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a 30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West... A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas. Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast... Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a 30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West... A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas. Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast... Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a 30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...West... A few thunderstorms will remain possible today offshore and near central/southern California coastal areas. This will be as a shortwave trough and related mid-level cold core progress east-southeastward over the region, with minimal buoyancy remaining maximized in offshore/near-coastal areas. Farther east, forcing for ascent and mid-level cooling will overspread the southern Rockies later today and tonight, with the exit region of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak nosing across northern Mexico. Scattered weak thunderstorm development is possible during the evening into the overnight hours across parts of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Central/East Texas including the Middle Texas Coast... Air mass modification will occur today into tonight across the western Gulf of Mexico, with increasing low-level moisture from the western Gulf of Mexico into the Texas Coastal Plain tonight as a 30-50 kt southerly low-level develops across a sizable part of Texas. It seems likely that a shallow stable layer will persist over inland areas, although modest-caliber elevated MUCAPE is expected to develop late tonight across central/east Texas, with isolated thunderstorm development becoming more probable overnight through the predawn hours of Thursday. Although richer maritime air may reach lower-middle coastal areas just before daybreak, severe storms still appear unlikely through 12z/6am CST Thursday. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 11/29/2023 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern High Plains into the Northeast, with another embedded shortwave forecast to move from the southern Plains toward the OH Valley. A stalled front will extend roughly from LA across MS, AL, and GA, with bouts of thunderstorms across the Southeast. The high likelihood of antecedent convection reduces predictability. In general, modest levels of instability are expected, beneath favorable midlevel flow which could potentially sustained strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. At least low probabilities for severe could be added in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Sunday/D5 onward, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast over the East as another trough moving across the Plains phases with the OH Valley trough. A front with showers and thunderstorms may affects parts of the Carolinas, GA, and FL before moving offshore. By this time, instability is forecast to be low. Behind this front, high pressure will spread across the CONUS, providing stable conditions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern High Plains into the Northeast, with another embedded shortwave forecast to move from the southern Plains toward the OH Valley. A stalled front will extend roughly from LA across MS, AL, and GA, with bouts of thunderstorms across the Southeast. The high likelihood of antecedent convection reduces predictability. In general, modest levels of instability are expected, beneath favorable midlevel flow which could potentially sustained strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. At least low probabilities for severe could be added in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Sunday/D5 onward, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast over the East as another trough moving across the Plains phases with the OH Valley trough. A front with showers and thunderstorms may affects parts of the Carolinas, GA, and FL before moving offshore. By this time, instability is forecast to be low. Behind this front, high pressure will spread across the CONUS, providing stable conditions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern High Plains into the Northeast, with another embedded shortwave forecast to move from the southern Plains toward the OH Valley. A stalled front will extend roughly from LA across MS, AL, and GA, with bouts of thunderstorms across the Southeast. The high likelihood of antecedent convection reduces predictability. In general, modest levels of instability are expected, beneath favorable midlevel flow which could potentially sustained strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. At least low probabilities for severe could be added in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Sunday/D5 onward, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast over the East as another trough moving across the Plains phases with the OH Valley trough. A front with showers and thunderstorms may affects parts of the Carolinas, GA, and FL before moving offshore. By this time, instability is forecast to be low. Behind this front, high pressure will spread across the CONUS, providing stable conditions. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CST Wed Nov 29 2023 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Saturday/D4, an expansive area of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern High Plains into the Northeast, with another embedded shortwave forecast to move from the southern Plains toward the OH Valley. A stalled front will extend roughly from LA across MS, AL, and GA, with bouts of thunderstorms across the Southeast. The high likelihood of antecedent convection reduces predictability. In general, modest levels of instability are expected, beneath favorable midlevel flow which could potentially sustained strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts. At least low probabilities for severe could be added in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Sunday/D5 onward, a larger-scale trough amplification is forecast over the East as another trough moving across the Plains phases with the OH Valley trough. A front with showers and thunderstorms may affects parts of the Carolinas, GA, and FL before moving offshore. By this time, instability is forecast to be low. Behind this front, high pressure will spread across the CONUS, providing stable conditions. Read more