Severe Storms

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX AND WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...TX to western OK... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX. Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple supercells with severe hail as the primary threat. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX, while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CST Thu Feb 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF TX AND WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible beginning late afternoon Friday across parts of the southern Great Plains. ...TX to western OK... Prolific thunderstorm development is expected from mid afternoon to evening on Friday, persisting overnight, within the left-exit region of a very fast upper jet overspreading much of the international border with northern Mexico through 12Z Saturday. While intense mid-level winds will remain displaced south of the upper jet deeper into northern Mexico, a lobe of 50+ kt 500-mb southwesterlies should accompany the ejection of the primary shortwave impulse from the Lower CO Valley to the southern High Plains. Guidance does have greater-than-typical spread for the D2 time frame with the amplitude of the jetlet(s) spreading into TX by Friday evening. These differences are enough to defer on highlighting any mesoscale corridors of cat 2-SLGT risk, especially where supercell potential should be conditionally maximized Friday night in south TX. Primary categorical adjustment with this outlook is to expand the cat 1-MRGL risk farther northwest, given the signal for mid- to late-afternoon thunderstorm development in northwest TX to western OK. The 03Z RAP is relatively aggressive with the degree of boundary-layer moistening and corresponding MLCAPE plume developing this far northwestward. Bulk of guidance suggests this region should remain on the periphery of the modified moisture return, which was characterized by mean mixing ratios near 9 g/kg in the 00Z BRO sounding. Despite a predominantly meridional deep-layer wind profile, adequate hodograph curvature could support a couple supercells with severe hail as the primary threat. Farther south in west TX, high-based convective development should initially form west of the dryline during the late afternoon, with more prominent development likely in the evening as the Pacific cold front ejects east. As this impinges on the modest buoyancy plume characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg, a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong to marginal severe gusts should occur. This activity will likely spread east across central TX, while downstream storms also form during the evening/night given the favorable large-scale ascent. The tail end of strengthening low-level south-southwesterlies, coincident with low to mid 60s surface dew points, may also offer a lower-end threat for an embedded supercell tornado. This may occur during the late evening to overnight as multiple clusters spread east across a portion of south TX towards the Middle TX Gulf Coast. ..Grams.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant. Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls spread across this region. One notable surface front will move inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant. Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls spread across this region. One notable surface front will move inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant. Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls spread across this region. One notable surface front will move inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant. Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls spread across this region. One notable surface front will move inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... High-level diffluent flow aloft will be noted across the southwestern US today as strong 500mb speed max translates toward the central Baja Peninsula as the southern stream becomes dominant. Large-scale ascent will encourage cooling/moistening profiles across much of CA into the southern Rockies as 60-120m 12hr height falls spread across this region. One notable surface front will move inland across CA by 02/00z before advancing into UT/AZ by the end of the period. Forecast soundings exhibit weak buoyancy across favored onshore regions of CA into the interior valleys, and orographic influences should also aid the prospect for deep convection across the Four Corners region. However, instability appears too weak to warrant any meaningful risk for organized/severe storms. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding the possibility for isolated thunderstorms along the CA Coast remain. 00z soundings along the CA Coast have yet to moisten and/or steepen in response to the approaching midlevel trough. However, later tonight large-scale ascent should contribute to moistening such that profiles should become weakly buoyant as soundings cool aloft and lapse rates steepen. At that time weak convection is expected to develop and the deepest updrafts may generate lightning. Even so, thunderstorms should remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding the possibility for isolated thunderstorms along the CA Coast remain. 00z soundings along the CA Coast have yet to moisten and/or steepen in response to the approaching midlevel trough. However, later tonight large-scale ascent should contribute to moistening such that profiles should become weakly buoyant as soundings cool aloft and lapse rates steepen. At that time weak convection is expected to develop and the deepest updrafts may generate lightning. Even so, thunderstorms should remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 02/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...01z Update... Earlier thoughts regarding the possibility for isolated thunderstorms along the CA Coast remain. 00z soundings along the CA Coast have yet to moisten and/or steepen in response to the approaching midlevel trough. However, later tonight large-scale ascent should contribute to moistening such that profiles should become weakly buoyant as soundings cool aloft and lapse rates steepen. At that time weak convection is expected to develop and the deepest updrafts may generate lightning. Even so, thunderstorms should remain isolated. ..Darrow.. 02/01/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 31 23:39:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 31 23:39:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period with the exception of southwest TX this weekend. The upper ridge over the central CONUS will continue to promote warm and dry conditions across the middle portion of the country through the end of the work week. The gradual breakdown of this feature through the weekend and into early next week is expected to usher in precipitation chances for most locations with the exception of the Midwest/Upper OH River Valley where long-range ensembles show limited potential for wetting rainfall (or snow water equivalent) amounts. These rain/snow chances, combined with cool conditions and unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire weather concerns (with the exception of southwest TX). ...D4/Saturday - Southwest Texas... Ensemble guidance maintains good agreement in the overall synoptic evolution as a sub-tropic jet pushes into northern Mexico/southern TX by late Friday. Strong lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains is anticipated, which should promote strong westerly downslope winds across southern NM into the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX. Confidence in critical wind speeds (>20 mph) has increased as most ensemble/deterministic solutions - including typically more conservative guidance - depict widespread 20-35 mph winds. Although confidence in strong winds is relatively high, fuel status across the region is currently not receptive with ERCs below the 50th percentile, and light/scattered rain showers on Friday may further inhibit fuel status. Additionally, confidence in reaching critical RH thresholds is limited per ensemble probabilities. Despite the strong winds, the fuel and RH concerns limit confidence in a robust fire weather threat, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period with the exception of southwest TX this weekend. The upper ridge over the central CONUS will continue to promote warm and dry conditions across the middle portion of the country through the end of the work week. The gradual breakdown of this feature through the weekend and into early next week is expected to usher in precipitation chances for most locations with the exception of the Midwest/Upper OH River Valley where long-range ensembles show limited potential for wetting rainfall (or snow water equivalent) amounts. These rain/snow chances, combined with cool conditions and unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire weather concerns (with the exception of southwest TX). ...D4/Saturday - Southwest Texas... Ensemble guidance maintains good agreement in the overall synoptic evolution as a sub-tropic jet pushes into northern Mexico/southern TX by late Friday. Strong lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains is anticipated, which should promote strong westerly downslope winds across southern NM into the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX. Confidence in critical wind speeds (>20 mph) has increased as most ensemble/deterministic solutions - including typically more conservative guidance - depict widespread 20-35 mph winds. Although confidence in strong winds is relatively high, fuel status across the region is currently not receptive with ERCs below the 50th percentile, and light/scattered rain showers on Friday may further inhibit fuel status. Additionally, confidence in reaching critical RH thresholds is limited per ensemble probabilities. Despite the strong winds, the fuel and RH concerns limit confidence in a robust fire weather threat, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period with the exception of southwest TX this weekend. The upper ridge over the central CONUS will continue to promote warm and dry conditions across the middle portion of the country through the end of the work week. The gradual breakdown of this feature through the weekend and into early next week is expected to usher in precipitation chances for most locations with the exception of the Midwest/Upper OH River Valley where long-range ensembles show limited potential for wetting rainfall (or snow water equivalent) amounts. These rain/snow chances, combined with cool conditions and unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire weather concerns (with the exception of southwest TX). ...D4/Saturday - Southwest Texas... Ensemble guidance maintains good agreement in the overall synoptic evolution as a sub-tropic jet pushes into northern Mexico/southern TX by late Friday. Strong lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains is anticipated, which should promote strong westerly downslope winds across southern NM into the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX. Confidence in critical wind speeds (>20 mph) has increased as most ensemble/deterministic solutions - including typically more conservative guidance - depict widespread 20-35 mph winds. Although confidence in strong winds is relatively high, fuel status across the region is currently not receptive with ERCs below the 50th percentile, and light/scattered rain showers on Friday may further inhibit fuel status. Additionally, confidence in reaching critical RH thresholds is limited per ensemble probabilities. Despite the strong winds, the fuel and RH concerns limit confidence in a robust fire weather threat, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited through the extended period with the exception of southwest TX this weekend. The upper ridge over the central CONUS will continue to promote warm and dry conditions across the middle portion of the country through the end of the work week. The gradual breakdown of this feature through the weekend and into early next week is expected to usher in precipitation chances for most locations with the exception of the Midwest/Upper OH River Valley where long-range ensembles show limited potential for wetting rainfall (or snow water equivalent) amounts. These rain/snow chances, combined with cool conditions and unreceptive fuels, should preclude fire weather concerns (with the exception of southwest TX). ...D4/Saturday - Southwest Texas... Ensemble guidance maintains good agreement in the overall synoptic evolution as a sub-tropic jet pushes into northern Mexico/southern TX by late Friday. Strong lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains is anticipated, which should promote strong westerly downslope winds across southern NM into the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX. Confidence in critical wind speeds (>20 mph) has increased as most ensemble/deterministic solutions - including typically more conservative guidance - depict widespread 20-35 mph winds. Although confidence in strong winds is relatively high, fuel status across the region is currently not receptive with ERCs below the 50th percentile, and light/scattered rain showers on Friday may further inhibit fuel status. Additionally, confidence in reaching critical RH thresholds is limited per ensemble probabilities. Despite the strong winds, the fuel and RH concerns limit confidence in a robust fire weather threat, though trends will continue to be monitored. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...20Z Update... Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...20Z Update... Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...20Z Update... Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...20Z Update... Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. Read more