Severe Storms

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. In the wake of the trough, a dry airmass will be in place across most of the continental United States. This will likely limit thunderstorm potential through mid week. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Moisture return is forecast to take place over the Texas Coastal Plains on Thursday, and in parts of the southern Plains on Friday. However, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the central U.S., which would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. In the wake of the trough, a dry airmass will be in place across most of the continental United States. This will likely limit thunderstorm potential through mid week. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Moisture return is forecast to take place over the Texas Coastal Plains on Thursday, and in parts of the southern Plains on Friday. However, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the central U.S., which would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Monday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 6... On Monday, a mid-level trough is forecast to move through the eastern U.S., as a cold front advances southward across the Florida Peninsula. In the wake of the trough, a dry airmass will be in place across most of the continental United States. This will likely limit thunderstorm potential through mid week. ...Thursday/Day 7 and Friday/Day 8... Moisture return is forecast to take place over the Texas Coastal Plains on Thursday, and in parts of the southern Plains on Friday. However, an upper-level ridge is forecast to move across the central U.S., which would limit thunderstorm potential in most areas. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will remain over the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow continues over the eastern U.S. A moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day within this moist airmass. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will remain over the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow continues over the eastern U.S. A moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day within this moist airmass. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will remain over the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow continues over the eastern U.S. A moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day within this moist airmass. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will remain over the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow continues over the eastern U.S. A moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day within this moist airmass. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas, but no severe storms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A trough at mid-levels will remain over the central U.S. on Sunday, as southwesterly flow continues over the eastern U.S. A moist airmass will be in place from Florida northeastward into the eastern Carolinas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day within this moist airmass. However, instability is expected to be insufficient for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the continental United States, thunderstorm development is not expected. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a secondary shortwave will rotate through the long wave trough, bringing enhanced mid-level westerly flow across the Four Corners into New Mexico. Warm and dry downslope flow will bring relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into portions of far western Texas. Though afternoon sustained winds around 15-25 mph will likely overlap Elevated to near-Critical relative humidity, fuels within these regions remain moist with portions of the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles receiving recent rainfall. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A deepening trough and associated belt of increased mid-level flow will continue to drive the weather across much of the CONUS today. Strong west-southwesterly flow aloft across the southern Rockies will favor breezy downslope winds across the High Plains, though relative humidity will remain around 30-40 percent. This in combination with cooler temperatures and moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. Further west, surface high pressure building across the Great Basin will bring offshore flow across portions of Southern California. Very strong winds are likely in the morning hours across the mountains in Santa Barbra and Ventura counties. Relative humidity will remain above thresholds for concern despite strong winds. Localized Elevated fire weather will be possible in the afternoon across favored downslope regions, where afternoon minimum relative humidity around 20-30 percent may overlap sustained winds 20-25 mph. Given the localized nature of this threat and generally cool forecast temperatures, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2295 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2295 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Areas affected...Coastal southwest/south-central LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 010531Z - 010730Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A low-probability threat for a brief tornado along with isolated strong gusts of 40-55 mph will likely persist overnight, but within a spatially confined area of a single parish or two at any one time that should gradually shift east. DISCUSSION...Attempts at brief mesovortex formation appeared to have a relative peak during the 03-04Z time frame before thunderstorm clusters became more oriented from southwest to northeast across far southwest LA. This type of orientation within the low-level warm theta-e advection regime should support a rather limited spatial extent of brief tornado potential at any one time during the early morning. The overlap of upper 60s surface dew points within warm-sector inflow where surface winds have not yet veered appears spatially small, and is presently confined to eastern Cameron Parish. With convection likely regenerating in this southwest-northeast orientation through much of the night, this favorable warm-sector inflow region and resultant brief tornado threat should slowly shift east along the coastal parishes of southwest to south-central LA. ..Grams/Smith.. 12/01/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30179264 30229208 30159165 30049133 29849112 29589112 29369128 29399174 29529284 29769315 29929313 30179264 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A trough at mid-levels will move eastward through the Great Plains on Saturday, with flow remaining southwesterly across the eastern half of the U.S. Ahead of this system, a moist airmass will be in place from the central Gulf Coast states eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the central Gulf Coast states by afternoon. Ahead of the front, lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will support scattered thunderstorm development. Although some of the storms will be elevated, surface-based convection will be possible during the day into early evening from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into southwest Georgia. An isolated potential for strong wind gusts or a tornado will be possible within this corridor. The severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CST Fri Dec 01 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe storms will be possible on Saturday over parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast... A trough at mid-levels will move eastward through the Great Plains on Saturday, with flow remaining southwesterly across the eastern half of the U.S. Ahead of this system, a moist airmass will be in place from the central Gulf Coast states eastward to the southern Atlantic Seaboard. A cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the central Gulf Coast states by afternoon. Ahead of the front, lift associated with a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will support scattered thunderstorm development. Although some of the storms will be elevated, surface-based convection will be possible during the day into early evening from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into southwest Georgia. An isolated potential for strong wind gusts or a tornado will be possible within this corridor. The severe threat is expected to remain marginal. ..Broyles.. 12/01/2023 Read more