Severe Storms

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...20Z Update... Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...20Z Update... Isolated thunderstorms are still expected this evening and overnight as cooling mid-level temperatures and predominantly cellular convection impact the immediate coastal regions of CA. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 PM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Confidence remains reasonably high that the driest conditions across the central High Plains should be displaced from the stronger surface winds over the southern Plains, resulting in limited fire weather concerns. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Moore.. 01/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0125 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the broad trough shifts eastward on Thursday, another modestly deep lee trough will develop in the central/southern High Plains. Wind speeds may end up slightly greater than on Wednesday, though the impacted areas should focus farther south and perhaps east. Cloud cover will again affect these areas and keep RH generally at or above 20%, though local areas could see lower values. Without more substantive drying in fuels and/or more critical meteorological conditions, fire weather concerns will once again remain low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing is expected to extend along the length of the West Coast early Thursday morning. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through the base of this upper troughing over central/southern CA and into AZ throughout the period. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent upper troughing by early Friday morning. A large area of precipitation is anticipated within the warm conveyor preceding this shortwave, beginning the period over CA and ending the period across AZ, southern UT, and the Four Corners vicinity. Predominately stable conditions are anticipated within this leading area of precipitation. However, cooling mid-level temperatures in its wake should result in limited buoyancy and the potential for a few lightning flashes with the more cellular convection as it gradually shifts eastward from CA into southern AZ. Some limited buoyancy may also develop during the afternoon and evening in the Four Corners vicinity, amid the persistent warm-air advection ahead of the shortwave (and ahead of large area of precipitation). As such, some of the storms may become deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes. Farther east, upper ridging, initially extending from the Lower MS Valley through the northern Plains, will gradually shift eastward, ending the period extended from the Mid-South through the Upper Midwest. As it does, a compact shortwave trough is forecast to move across KS and OK. Some showers are possible across the southern Plains in association with this wave, but stable conditions will preclude deep convection. Upper troughing will also progress across the Upper Great Lakes into the OH Valley and Northeast, but cool, stable conditions will preclude thunderstorm development. ..Mosier.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1007 AM CST Wed Jan 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible tonight along parts of the California Coast. ...CA Coast... A large upper trough is beginning to affect the Pacific coast today, with a band of rain moving ashore. This pre-frontal precipitation is in a generally stable environment, and is not expected to support organized thunderstorm activity. Later tonight, continued cooling of mid-level temperatures will result in steep lapse rates over the offshore waters, leading to a risk of a few thunderstorms in the post-frontal cellular convection. This activity is expected to be quite sparse. No severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 01/31/2024 Read more